Warren Hatch 'Superforecasting - how to see the future first'

This episode of The New Abnormal podcast features the renowned superforecaster Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgement Inc. He joined the organisation as a volunteer forecaster in a research project sponsored by the US government / funded by the intelligence community, where they emerged as the undisputed victor re: geopolitical forecasting. Warren then became a 'Superforecaster' and is now CEO of the commercial successor, Good Judgment Inc, a world leader in applying innovative probabilistic solutions to real-world decisions in order to forecast the future.  He's assisted governments and private companies around the world to improve their foresight and quantify uncertainty. Warren's prior career was on Wall Street where he started at Morgan Stanley, and he earned his PhD from Oxford University.So, we discuss all of the above in what I hope you'll agree is a fascinating conversation, focusing around Warren's views on how to quantify subjective risks to deliver accurate and early foresight, thus enabling better decision making about the future.