Waterfall’s Raghavan on CRE’s Outlook: State of Distressed Debt

“There is one AAA bond that has taken a loss so far in CMBS. There will be plenty more.” Waterfall Asset Management’s Head of ABS Strategy Keerthi Raghavan didn’t mince words in laying out his view of the office real estate market, one of the few corners of the credit universe offering significant distressed opportunities. Raghavan, speaking with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel, examined the widely different segments of the commercial real estate market, his data-centric approach to investing and strategies employed amid distressed situations (5:50). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel highlighted the risks investors take when the market speculation is high, evidenced by historically tight spreads and a dearth of distressed debt. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining the two analysts for a round table discussion covering Ligado Networks, Serta Simmons, Party City, Hertz, Incora, and CommScope(1:25:40). Key interview take aways and time stamps: Approach to active portfolio management: Thematic vs. idiosyncratic (00:18:30) Assessing building quality and valuation of an asset (00:34:00) Trading, sourcing and liquidity of CRE credit risk (00:46:40) CRE investor base and price discovery: Valuations of RE vs. CRE debt (00:55:00) Workout process dynamics and misalignment between counterparties (01:08:45) Market outlook and risks over the coming 12-24 months (01:20:30)