We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong

Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk may be more about earnings than valuations. We also discuss AI capital spending, market supply from IPOs, GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts, international stocks, benchmark-free allocation and what private equity investors may be missing.7 YEAR ASSET CLASS FORECASThttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-may-2026_gmo7yearassetclassforecast/WHAT BARBARIANS LIKE TO TAKE PRIVATEhttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/part-1-what-barbarians-like-to-take-private_gmoquarterlyletter/THE CASE FOR LIQUID ALTERNATIVEShttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-case-for-liquid-alternatives-in-todays-environment_insights/Main topics coveredWhy GMO sees the AI boom as a bubble investors may be able to navigateThe difference between easy bubbles and hard bubbles in portfolio constructionLessons from the internet bubble, the global financial crisis and the 2021 duration bubbleWhy today’s market may be an earnings bubble, not just a valuation bubbleHow AI data center spending affects corporate profits before depreciation shows upWhy transformational technologies do not always reward the companies building themThe risk of circular financing, debt-funded AI spending and increasingly creative deal structuresHow IPOs, share issuance and market supply can pressure stock returnsGMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts and why international stocks look more attractive than U.S. stocksWhy private equity portfolios may contain large hidden bets on small, lower-quality companiesTimestamps00:00 AI, earnings bubbles and market supply00:58 Why Ben Inker thinks the AI bubble may be easier to navigate02:43 What makes a bubble easy or hard for investors08:12 Comparing risk and return in 2000, 2007, 2021 and today14:42 Why optimizers and real clients see risk differently17:02 What GMO learned from managing through past bubbles19:08 How today compares to the 2000 internet bubble20:00 Why this may be an earnings bubble23:34 Semiconductors, memory makers and the capital cycle25:00 How AI CapEx compares to railroads, electricity and fiber optics29:33 Debt, circular financing and strange AI deals34:32 Why massive stock issuance could challenge the market40:00 How GMO builds seven-year asset class return forecasts41:40 Why interest rates change fair value for stocks and bonds45:32 Why international, value and small-cap stocks look more attractive49:06 The case for a benchmark-free portfolio55:21 What 700 leveraged buyouts reveal about private equity01:02:00 How public portfolios can offset private equity risks01:03:37 Why investors need to understand what they are paid for01:08:27 Closing thoughts