“We made a map of the doom debate” by Sean Herrington, Paul Hindoian, mikaelacankosyan, David Bravo, keivnc, Josh Tuffy, Christopher Davis, Khai Tran, Maryam Hampaei

This was produced as a part of the AI Safety Camp 2026 "Assumptions of the Doom Debate" project, led by Sean Herrington, who was also the lead author on this post. The other participants have equal contributions and are listed in no particular order. It is the first in a sequence we intend to publish over the coming weeks. TL;DR: We have created a breakdown of AI threat pathways, which can be accessed at https://lifeuniversesafety.com/doom-assumptions/index.htmlThis breakdown is in a tree format, and we allow people to set their own probabilities for each threat pathwayYou can use this to drill down into components of your P(Doom)You can analyse the sensitivity of your beliefs to changes in your assumptionsYou can compare your worldview to others’ and find cruxes automaticallyThe exercise of creating this sort of structure is valuable as a way to think about the future in a more general manner. Introduction Just about everyone in the AI community seems to disagree about the risks of the technology. People disagree on the likelihood (Yann LeCun: <0.01% chance of extinction; Roman Yampolskiy: >99.99%), the worst threat (AI takeover vs concentration of power vs gradual disempowerment [...] ---Outline:(01:07) Introduction(04:13) User Guide(04:16) Labels(04:55) Base Tree(05:15) Tree features(05:19) Pin branch overrides(05:56) Collapse tree(06:16) Sub-branch probabilities(06:51) Connector thickness(07:06) Sensitivity Analysis(07:31) Crux Analysis(08:48) Ranges(09:38) Uncertainty Reduction(10:04) Other features The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 22nd, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dZZD5Lviid2mALAZL/we-made-a-map-of-the-doom-debate --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.