We Reunited David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein After 20 Years | The Misallocation They Both See

This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the AI capital spending boom, the risk that data center investment is crowding out housing and other parts of the economy, and what that means for markets. Featuring Richard Bernstein, David Rosenberg, Tian Yang, and Brent Donnelly, the episode covers AI CapEx, GDP growth, inflation, the K-shaped economy, AI ROI, and why rationality and Bayesian thinking matter more than raw intelligence for investors and traders.Topics coveredWhy the AI and data center boom may be misallocating capital away from housing and infrastructureWhat the dot-com bubble taught Richard Bernstein about investing where capital is scarceWhy AI related spending is approaching half of business CapEx while ex-AI investment is shrinkingHow today's K-shaped economy differs from the broad economic boom of the late 1990sThe difference between AI's contribution to GDP growth and its share of total GDPTian Yang's Kalecki-Levy framework for understanding spending, savings, income, and economic resilienceWhy a pullback in hyperscaler CapEx could weaken the spending and income loopWhy AI return on investment is so difficult to measure and how the profit pool could broaden beyond hardwareBrent Donnelly on why rationality and flexibility matter more than credentials or raw intelligenceWhy persistent bearishness can become a major investing mistakeHow Bayesian thinking, position sizing, and changing your mind help investors stay in the gameTimestamps00:02 Rich Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite and this week's lineup04:10 The dot-com lesson: what happens when capital floods one sector08:15 AI CapEx, inflation, and why today's economy is different from the 1990s13:58 Kalecki-Levy: how spending and savings are keeping growth resilient18:03 AI CapEx concentration, productivity, and the uncertainty around ROI22:21 Brent Donnelly on why rationality beats intelligence26:21 Strong opinions, flexibility, and Bayesian thinking30:33 What traders and market makers can teach long-term investorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.