Weak Retail Sales Send Rate Hike Odds Crashing to 27% | August 14, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Andrew and Tom discuss retail sales falling 0.6% month-over-month against an expected 0.1% gain, with the prior month also revised lower, driving the market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike this year down to 27% from near-certainty just two weeks ago, a weak 30-year Treasury auction that priced at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, with bonds continuing to decouple from cooling inflation and labor data, Trump announcing 100% tariffs on unmanned drones in a further push to decouple supply chains from China, and Cobb County's 5-2 vote greenlighting the Powers Ferry data center despite local opposition.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure