Weather Monday May 13 2024 New York City dry today and showers midweek...Heavy and severe weather gulf coast to Atlanta and Jaxonville... Localy severe near Chicago

Risk for numerous instances of flash flooding will shift from eastern Texas/central Louisiana late Sunday to the central Gulf Coast Monday... ...Showers and storms expected ahead of a cold front across the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley Monday, spreading into the Ohio Valley and Interior Northeast by Tuesday... ...Generally above average temperatures expected for the West... A southern stream upper-level wave and associated surface frontal system traversing the south-central U.S. this weekend/early next week will continue to bring extremely heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding, as well as severe weather, from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. The threat Sunday evening into early Monday morning will be focused on portions of eastern Texas into central Louisiana where a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) remains in place. Here, abundant moisture and strong CAPE will lead to very heavy downpours with additional rounds of storms focusing along a slow moving warm front leading to several inches of rain on top of wet antecedent conditions. Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding remain possible overnight Sunday. The system will continue eastward Monday, with the threat of very to extremely heavy rainfall extending along the warm front through the central Gulf Coast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) stretches from eastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle, with a more concentrated Moderate Risk centered on southeastern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle where the greatest confidence in coverage of repeated storms producing intense downpours exist. The prospect of several inches of rain could lead to numerous additional instances of flash flooding Monday. Additionally, storms will also have the potential to become severe, with a Slight Risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center stretching from central Texas to southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle for the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The warm front will begin to lift further northeastward on Tuesday, with showers and storms extending towards the Atlantic coast of the Carolinas and Georgia. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall exists across this region southwestward through the Florida Panhandle where a few additional scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible.