Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What’s Driving Food Commodity Markets?

IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series | IFPRI Policy Seminar Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What’s Driving Food Commodity Markets? Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) June 23, 2026 Global food commodity markets are entering a new phase in which traditional indicators may no longer provide a clear view of market dynamics. While supply conditions for key crops appear quite promising, a closer look reveals a more complex picture—shaped by climate risks, macroeconomic pressures, and shifting market behavior. Join us for this seminar that will bring together insights from market monitoring, macro analysis, and transportation to examine what is driving food commodity markets today—and where to expect future sources of risk and uncertainty. Presentations will unpack the conditions driving agricultural market behavior, and GEOGLAM will provide updates on crop conditions and the evolving threat from El Niño. The discussion will focus on the growing linkages between commodity markets and energy and transport markets and on renewed investor interest in agricultural commodities, the role of market speculation, and how to interpret these signals in today’s markets. Overview of Macroeconomic Prospects John Baffes, Senior Agriculture Economist, Development Economics Prospects Group, World Bank Overview of Crop Conditions and Emergence of El Niño Brian Barker, Principal Faculty Specialist, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland; Co-Lead, GEOGLAM Crop Monitors (AMIS) Panel Discussion Kona Haque, Former Head of Research, ED&F Seth Meyer, Director and Associate Professor, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Freight Research, CM Navigator Concluding Remarks Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI Moderator Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/weather-money-and-shifting-bets-whats-driving-food-commodity-markets/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription