Weather Thursday June 13 2024 Fair in the northeast .... Heavy t-storms Friday then nice for the weekend in NYC ... Florida heavy storms continue

The threat for Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding continuesover central and southern Florida through Friday......There's an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of theMiddle Mississippi Valley on Thursday......There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of theSouthwest, and western Texas...A stationary boundary bisecting the Florida Peninsula will be the focusfor thunderstorm activity across much of the state over the next couple ofdays. A complex of storms slowly moving through south-central Florida latethis afternoon and into the early evening will produce heavy to excessiverainfall leading to significant flash flooding. Storms should move intothe Keys tonight before reloading for another round of storms on Thursdayand Friday. There are Slight Risks (at least 15%) in effect for parts ofcentral/southern Florida with the potential for upgrades over the nextcouple of days.Digging mid-level energy will support thunderstorm activity acrossportions of the Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.Thunderstorms are expected to initiate somewhere ahead of a cold frontpropagating through the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon before movinginto the eastern Iowa, northern Illinois/Indiana. Storms should congealinto an MCS and push farther into the Midwest Thursday night. There's anEnhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms in southern Iowa,northwest Illinois and northern Missouri for late Thursday afternoon toearly evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts and a few tornadoesare possible. This vort max will shift the convective threat into theinterior Northeast on Friday afternoon and evening, where scattered stormswith severe wind gusts will be possible. The upper low that has beenspinning just off the coast of southern/Baja California will move into theWestern U.S. on Thursday before influencing more thunderstorm activityover parts of the Central Plains this Friday. Storms are forecast toinitiate on the lee side of the Central Rockies on Friday afternoon andpropagate eastward into the Central Plains that evening.An upper-level ridge over the West will degrade and shift eastward as theclosed low move into the region over the next 24 hours. Temperatures willmoderate a bit, particularly over the Four Corners as well as California'scentral valley, where Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches will come to anend tonight. Anomalous temps should shift into the Northwest and northerntier late this week beneath the ridge. In the meantime, Excessive HeatWarnings and Advisories remain in effect across parts of the Southwestinto western Texas.