Weather Wednesday May 1 2024 Fair but cloudy NE ... Chicago weather looks fine Much of Texas under sever weather threat into Oklahoma...Dry California

Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of theUpper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through mid-week......Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall now in place for the Ark-La-TexThursday......Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern HighPlains on Wednesday......Cool and snowy in the Northwest; above average conditions continueacross much of the Central and Eastern U.S....Mean ridging over the eastern U.S. with an energetic upper-level troughover the north-central/northwestern U.S. will keep most of the activeweather over the next few days over portions of the Upper/MiddleMississippi Valley and Great Plains. Showers and thunderstorms willcontinue into Tuesday evening as an upper-level wave/surface frontalsystem over the Central Plains moves to the northeast through theUpper/Middle Mississippi Valley. There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) ofsevere weather from the Storm Prediction Center through Tuesday eveningfrom central Iowa southwestward through northeastern Kansas for the threatof very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additional stormsfurther to the southwest along a trailing cold front will lead to a riskfor some locally heavy rainfall totals as storm motions stall in tandemwith the slowing cold front. Some scattered instances of flash floodingwill be possible from southeastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma with aSlight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place.As this system departs to the into the Great Lakes, another upper-levelwave approaching from the west over the Rockies will help toreinforce/organize the trailing frontal system over the Central HighPlains. This will bring yet another round of showers and thunderstormsacross the Plains Wednesday. Severe storms are expected ahead of a drylineover portions of the Central/Southern Plains. A broad Slight Risk is inplace for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, with a localizedEnhanced Risk over southwest Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma. Dry, windyconditions behind the dryline will also bring a heightened threat ofwildfires, with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) issued by theStorm Prediction Center for the Southern High Plains.Storms are expected to cluster/expand in coverage into the evening hoursWednesday as the frontal system lifts into the Middle Missouri Valley. Asouthern stream upper-level wave will help lead to a second area ofenhanced convective development over portions of southern Oklahoma intomuch of the eastern half of Texas. In both cases, plentiful moisture and astrong low level jet will help foster locally intense rainfall, withSlight Risks of Excessive Rainfall for the threat of scattered flashflooding. Both areas of storms are forecast to continue into the dayThursday with daytime heating bringing the potential for additionaldevelopment from the Upper-Mississippi Valley south-southwestward throughthe Lower Missouri Valley and into the Ark-La-Tex. A broad Slight Risk ofExcessive Rainfall has been issued for the region, with a targetedModerate Risk (level 3/4) now in place for the Ark-La-Tex. Wet antecedentconditions due to rainfall from any initial storms followed by theprospects of additional development will continue the threat for flashflooding.