The underdog is howling This is stand receive and the bear. Oh, yes home team getting points. What's better than that? Week 10 that's right double digits.
We're here beer. I know how fired up you are for this week We got readers cup. We got Greg McElroy What else on your plate makes this the most hectic week of your of your season? I think from a workload standpoint just preparation it's earlier in the week with the first what happens The first release of the supply-off rankings there.
There are a lot of moving parts and typing up questions and storylines and topics and throwing hypothetical scenarios out there to kind of Get the guys ready for or at least that throw out there. Hey, this could happen or that could happen Because I don't know I find out what everybody else finds out But I try to do my best that to guess my guess actually was a little off this week But yeah, so between the the CFP shows and then the the previous column this pod Actual game day show what's going on? But it's a hectic week and even making a more hectic and chaotic this week is the fact that Kirk and Maria Myself will be going to the Michigan to do the Penn State Michigan game early at 3 45 Eastern So we're literally right after game day. We're we're up on that bird Yeah, it'll be a tight little week time It sure does and then we gotta try and make them we gotta try and make that nine o'clock flight home DTW to BDL You got that you got that a second half.
I hope for a Little late night get back game potentially. Mm. We will touch on that with mr. McElroy possibly and in as he's gonna be out late out west We did it last week just looking at these early games want to give you a pick before we get to McElroy I'm talking to more specifically about Vama and LSU and Georgia Kentucky And I want to do some quarterback stuff in the SEC because I'm just dumbfounded on the lack of production I've seen and not meeting about my expectations and at that position that conference and I want to pick Greg's brain about that But I'm gonna go noon early.
I actually have three games. I'm looking at and noon. I'll give you a one right now I think Nebraska is in some trouble here. They've obviously been one of my favorite teams To follow all year and look at their numbers obviously the offense is there But I've talked about their lack of their defense I've given out the over and a bunch of their games already this year and we've been pretty good at that But I'm just looking at the actually the other side of Nebraska here.
I love Martinez as I mentioned at the quarterback. They played with him. Cookman got him in and out last week They go to Columbus I mentioned noon kickoff for Ohio State who has to be chomping at the bit after a bi-week filing that embarrassing loss after do The issue I have here is the brass visibility to block that front for Ohio State I don't think they can I imagine the brass is gonna try a lot of quick game stuff which takes away from there down the field Attack and the line's coming down. I saw it open at like 20 and a half and now I see I've even seen a 17 and a half this morning I would lean and like Ohio State in this spot.
I just think it's an urban two week get ready We saw you mentioned the rankings. They have a path. It's right there in front of them went out You gotta feel good about the Buckeyes making the playoffs. I say Ohio State and early kickoff on Saturday That would be the side I'd play as well and the fact that you're actually better off with the number you're getting here I think is a good sign.
I like a nooner as well I like I like Baylor at home getting seven and a half or I think there are a couple of eights out there as well You can find them a little right down from the post- Go on the state this is a pattern with Oklahoma State if you look at the times They have pulled out right upsets as underdogs they come back the following week is a favorite typically don't cover Baylor was terrible it was for Jim embarrassingly bad and I would be surprised if a Mount Larus boys did not play better. It's just a team that that nearly went to Texas in one Kansas State They beat blew out Kansas Oklahoma game to put up 33 Oklahoma's it is a team act. I think it's great I know bruise a little beat up, but it seems like Oklahoma State Sandwich spot between the upset last week bedlam next week. Just did I just don't like the spot at all programs I think they I think they'll win but I'd certainly take the points yours as good as there is at no Those spots in those situations you mentioned the success with Baylor So maybe a little early upset on the horizon early on Plenty of more picks to go actually gonna get your take on a couple Totals I'm looking at in some games also that I'm not sure if I'm gonna make official But I want to discuss on the back end, but first I mentioned Greg McElroy joins in the preseason as good as we have there He's going out to Pullman to call Cal and Wazoo So we'll do a little travel itinerary from Birmingham to Pullman and how that's going and obviously I want to preview some SEC as long as you do and I know you have a question about the big 12 for him Also as he's called plenty of games there, so let's get to One of our best analysts we have at ESPN Greg McElroy.
We welcome in Greg McElroy again We'll be in Pullman for that late kick 1045 Eastern Saturday night and what should be a I know I saw the crowd sold out so you will get a good taste of the Pacific Northwest my friend I'm fired up. I mean it's uh, it's gonna be it's gonna be interesting going up there I mean I've been wanting to get in that direction for a while never thought that I'd make it to Pullman Uh, at least not at this point of the season So I don't think anyone self-included or y'all anyone could have predicted this type of season from Washington State So I'm very excited to go see it and I'm glad I'm catching it before it gets really really cold It's only supposed to be in about the 40s with a little rain so uh, I think we're catching it the right time So are we going to Spokane where we going to Seattle and then to Pullman Moscow? Oh, just a little uh the Birmingham to to Pullman direct was booked So I have to go Birmingham to Atlanta Atlanta to Seattle Seattle to Spokane staying the night in Spokane because I can't I can't get there Like any less than like 12 hours. It's like a 12 hour truck no matter what so I in order to save face for the radio in the morning I'm gonna stay in Spokane and we ended up doing it there all three nights So I just commute down for the game It's meetings on Friday and it'll be good actually be a nice trip.
They've been talking Spokane up for a while So I'm kind of looking forward to seeing what Spokane has to offer. It's beautiful out there having made that drive two weeks So from Spokane to Pullman, it's beautiful country out there and I think you I think you'll like Pullman It's a it's a cool little place and they love their team. No doubt. It certainly seems you guys were there Do that drive during a day Spokane to Pullman because I can't imagine what the wildlife is like at nighttime on that drive Um, but we wanted to get you on to obviously talk Bama LSU I'm gonna do some other SEC with some games in the East obviously Georgia, Kentucky and Missouri Florida have a question about but Let's just start with Baton Rouge.
Let's start with Bama LSU Your year that was oh nine correct correct. Yes. That was the that was a little slipstream you threw to Julio that he busted Yes, the little right. Yes little screen to the left.
Yep. Yep. I'm short side I remember that one like it was yesterday I want to start with this Greg and and obviously everyone always wants to go inside the Practices meetings with Bama and Saban knowing what he you know had prior at LSU What about LSU week makes you know it's different with coach Saban going into the game, you know Obviously this one is at Baton Rouge, but what's different? What can you tell us is different about coach Saban in a big game week like this?
He's not different like retreats. Yeah, and that's that's what's probably so remarkable about him I mean, he's he's the same guy for playing Western Kentucky as if we're playing Texas in the National Championship I mean you're gonna get the same guy like his sense of urgency him being Very vocal at practice doesn't get a change based on based on the team that you're playing on the upcoming game He is gonna be as consistent as it gets and that's probably why his team never plays to the level of a competition They always play their own standard and they don't lose games to teams They shouldn't because he respects every team really doesn't and the team does so I can remember vividly going into games thinking man If we don't play well, we're gonna lose and we're playing the hill toppers on Saturday You know, I mean probably go out and lay the biggest egg ever it's only by 21 But he really doesn't change man. That's probably why the team is responded so well and why big environments like this aren't really They don't really affect the man in a negative way. I'm so glad that you said that because I had a a friend who played a Power five school and they were having a very every special year and their circle the calendar game Approached on their schedule that day and the Monday that week the head coach He said made the game in the week out to be the biggest thing ever and I completely took the players and the team Out of their mentality and like wait a minute like they're entire routine their entire mindset was like oh my god This really is a big deal and right and predictably they went out that Saturday and got beat pretty badly So I think you letting that inside out is pretty it's pretty It's pretty helpful.
Hey, not only why they win these big games But be why they've won what 81 straight games against unranked games and just don't play eggs Yeah, it's been a decade since they lost to an unwrank team It's ridiculous like when you think of the level of consistency and the fact that the worst beating the statements ever taken at Alabama since 2007's 14 points like that's really remarkable. So it is He is a guy that's really now us as players like we're not stupid is our Especially the guys that have NFL aspirations like we know that if we want to play the next time We better play well can tell us you because all those guys are going to the league all of us are going to the league like This is our money game, right? Like this is a game that we want the scouts to put on like we knew So you knew that there was a little extra urgency built into the preparation just from a players perspective and really from an accountability standpoint Like I can remember guys watching more tape against LSU because one you're bored because you're coming off a bi-week Two you're anxious to get back to football and three you know that this is gonna be the first tape that everyone puts on when they start to Evaluate whether or not you're an NFL prospect so it definitely changes your approach as a player But coach David tries to keep it especially the time that you're at the facility from two to six every day He tries to keep that time very very uniform and it doesn't deviate much from from how it would look any other week I mean with the first week of the be verbous if I didn't ask your opinion on the Two-part question did anything surprise or what surprised you the most? Tuesday night with the other first college football playoff rankings reveal and then as a result of something you saw in the standings The rankings do you is there anything or any team that you think may either?
Play with a little bit bigger of an edge this week or maybe they have a little bit of a letdown disappointed about where they are Anything you see getting you see Tuesday night You think translates either a team playing better or maybe not playing as well on Saturday Well, there's one team, but they're a 40-point favorite and you know That's a lot of points Clemson's at number two and I you heard dabo yesterday on the show say hey We're just glad to be around you know, it's a you know, he played the whole dabo thing. Hey, it's Alabama Everybody else right? I mean we're gonna throw You know, we're just glad to be here. They call the one of y'all here Like he's you know, he's definitely he's been preaching to his team I feel like hey, they don't think we're worth a damn Alabama's the only team that's any good in this country And we got to show them every week like dabo thrives in that type of environment So I wouldn't be shocked to see them go out and absolutely pummel a teen in Louisville that hasn't played at all really Since the Florida State game and is seemingly kind of collapsing in on itself So I wouldn't be shocked that scores like 65 three.
I mean I was relieved that Shocking that they would absolutely throw in the talent and lay it at you after the coach cost of the game against large state Isn't it? No amazing I have to admit by the way, I think the last three weeks Clemson's out scored their opponent I think in the first half so it might not to try too hard to Go up the number. Okay, so we got you got this down, right? Alright, so Felico likes first half Clemson first half 30 at 30 points first half perfect That's a good call so I like I like Clemson to play with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder Even though the ranked number two fully expect Oklahoma to play with the chip on their shoulder Ohio State's one That's really fascinating to me that that's the team like if there's anybody that no one's really talking about and Ohio State Sit in there at number 10 and they're probably sitting there thinking of themselves man We just got embarrassed two weeks ago.
I know I've got two weeks to talk about it think about it watch the tape people are talking about our coach And whether or not he's gonna be back next year and now you have Washington State who's non-conference consisted of Wyoming San Jose State and Eastern Washington and their ranked two spots higher than us by the way the team in front of us is about 100 miles south named Kentucky and they're in front of us are you kidding world? How state I can see Ohio State going out on Saturday at home in front of their fans and absolutely drubbing Nebraska I really could see that even though Nebraska has been trending in the right direction Ohio State not so much But I could see Ohio State absolutely dominating that game on Saturday speaking of that team big lunation doesn't know to do it themselves They they all they just love it because they just keep saying we're enjoying this we've never had this before But if you say something derogatory about their offense There's nobody like that so they're keeping it civil like they always do But they host obviously Georgia and they're mad because game days not gonna be there, right? Sorry, there's a bigger game in your conference when when you look at the offense like it's not you know They get you know I hear about how the quarterback You know is all set now, but he missed part of last week Right, fortunately to get eight straight three now from the zoo wall touch on in a bit But when you like this Georgia the consistency of from the throwing game does that travel to Lexington this week? I actually like Kentucky's matchup better this week than I did last week I last week I thought Josh Allen could be neutralized with a quick passing game that Missouri was gonna throw at him Thought that this secondary might have their hands full a little bit just with the amount of weapons not necessarily the quality of the weapons So I didn't and I just didn't think Kentucky'd be able to run the football real well And they didn't really run the ball as well as they thought So I actually thought I'm a zoo is gonna win this game and and they didn't but now moving forward you look at a Georgia team Who just surrendered 170 yards on the ground to Florida?
Yeah, they were better in the second half and from played his best ball But I would argue that Kentucky secondary is better than that of the Florida Gators I know it sounds crazy to say like I know I promise you I'm being realistic when I say this and it's not without reason Florida has been ddu for a long time. They're not very good in the secondary right now They are at best average in the secondary and they're not at 100% in regards to health either So it wasn't shocking to me to see Georgia mix run pass and have a lot of effect in this through the air But Kentucky's a pretty good matchup So I look at that number and I see nine points my gosh that seems like a lot of points It seems like an awful lot of points in the game that'll probably be low scoring Kentucky'll shorten it as much as they can There won't be a ridiculous amount of possessions both teams I mean Kentucky is more one-dimensional than Georgia. That's why I would still pick Georgia to win the game But man that seems like a lot of points to me. It really does over under only 44 in that game Yeah, I mean it's gonna be a slug best low 20s first 120 minutes I really believe that I mean people look at Kentucky and they're a little enamored with what they've been not what they are and They are very physical They're sounding the run game to have unselfish players in the front that know how to play to their role and you have to earn your yardage against The man I mean they are they are a really good group and they are They're not sexy So I'd actually be a little surprised if this game wasn't a little closer than the experts thing Game in the big 12 that could go a long way in determining who Oklahoma will play in the big 12 championship game.
I'm gonna assume the suitors do reach the conference champion Texas on the road last week predictably lost in a spot that Oklahoma State really needed the game and Oklahoma State's offering plays fantastic Texas comeback fall short West Virginia was absolutely Incredible offensively against a completely over match Baylor team now the long ones go home. They're a small favorite over West Virginia Last time we saw West Virginia on the road. They were completely manhandled in Ames where where you are leaning here What do you think the biggest matchup will be for for Texas on Saturday? I would like Texas better if they were a slight home dog, but the fact that they're a slight home favorite I mean it's a little bit for some reason when you look at just everything that Tom Herman's been He just is so much better as a dog and I can't put my finger on as to why but he just knows how to press the buttons when they're in that role I'm still a little concerned about Sam Elinger at a hundred percent I'm a little concerned about their defense having gotten exploited a little bit last week now They tightened up in the second half, but if you look at Oklahoma State They were really able to work the middle of the field They were able to push those corners a little deeper than they're probably comfortable going and if there's one thing that Wilgier can do He can stretch the field and he can really stretch the field you mix that in with a little bit of a run game Not exactly a dynamic run game or a run game that they can take it over but then West Virginia is playing good football I would probably still lean slightly towards Texas just because that home field is now actually a home field I remember the wine and cheese crowd that used to exist probably five six years ago now It's a legitimate home field advantage, so I'll probably lean a little bit in favor of Texas But I don't do so with a ton of confidence I do it based on home field and the fact that they're a little bit more complete on both sides of the ball Whereas West Virginia is slightly more offense-centric and against good defense West Virginia's offense hasn't exactly always traveled Got you.
I want to just go back to the SEC and make this like part of a Missouri thing But you know obviously bigger picture in the conference Greg when I why I just I can't get over that Missouri offense last week Like I couldn't be more disappointed in what they were and what they had in front of them Like I like the guys drew lock has to throw to and he's just was he's just off just a hair But then it's just like crucial situations the decision making where it's you know Hey, you have a lead move the chains and it just it never seemed to click and I like I mean I don't watch these guys as closely as you do when you look at the position and I hear about you know coming into the season How great the position is town from a town perspective in the conference and I just see so many guys not playing to what I was expecting Do you like do you agree? Can you explain that? I mean is there a description of why I mean obviously I get the defenses are legit in the conference You know as they always are but you know what what do you say to that? Like I'm here drew lock at the next level.
I don't know man. I'm with you I don't know where that comes from and I like drew a lot good kid, but that's a franchise guy I That's that's a reach to me. I'm not I'm not disagreeing with anything You're saying there as far as quarterback plays concerned Even one of the best quarterbacks in the league Jake from has certainly fallen subject to a lot of criticism this year rightfully or wrongly like he He has been and he was basically blamed For the LSU game and he's a bockel that was and fair unfair that he has best up that they know but that guy's pretty dang steady But even he's had moments where he's been a little down I guess go to the league I mean Kentucky quarterback is a significant liability Florida Felipe Frank's had been progressing, but is that a position of strength? No South Carolina about how I would evaluate Florida solid Does make occasional mistakes with Jake Bentley, but not not exactly a guy that can completely take over a game But the team was back and show you how it's done Kyle Schurmer at Vanderbilt He's actually one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC and that offense for Vanderbilt is actually sneaky good be careful with them They might get to a bowl game if they can continue going especially around Keishan on their running back Jerry Garntano in fact that he's been one of the more consistent pastors in the last month is is pretty alarming and then mazoo sitting at 0 and 4 now granted in the SEC They're 0 and 4 and two of their losses come against Georgia and Alabama And they've just lost last week to Kentucky So they lose to three teams in the top nine in college football It's not that bad and three good defenses at that But the Drew Lock has I mean if you're a first round guy if you're a franchise guy You got to be able to take over a game and and he hasn't all the time He's made some nice throws But he's never been a guy that's operated real well from the pocket as against the top tier defense So he's got to be able to do that in the last month of the season to is a freak show and that's probably that's probably part of the reason Why we don't look at these quarterbacks in a positive light because we are all holding them to a standard that to a set that is unreachable The guy is doing things that we've never seen before in the SEC and that's when comparing him to past Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks And the SEC the guys ridiculous Joe Burrow at LSU is is I would say a slight liability Not overly talented decent enough runner, but you can't complete 53% of your passes and be considered a strength I just can't and I know LSU fans seem to always claim around always more than a game in I don't know about that.
I like him as a guy and he's steady at the position But there's way too many negative play takes a ton of sacks and he has a lot of incompletions Like he has a lot of negative yardage and zero yardage plays in the passing game and that's not good And he's gonna probably have a tough time this weekend Kellam on's the second best quarterback in the SEC right now But even he has had some weaknesses last last week against Mississippi State Nick Fitzgerald's been In-house is been well documented Jared Stidham saying for him Tom who has you know He's doesn't have helped it he has a terrible defense on their side and then Arkansas quarterback situations a mess So yeah, I would agree with you we just went through the whole whole roster and how many do you feel good about three? Yeah, I mean seriously I feel good. I totally that's why I just want to make sure it was coming from somebody else That obviously watches it more than me because I'm sitting here watching you know when I can and not really dial in the position I'm just like wow man every guy like you just went through is under you know expectation level Real quick though. How much do you think the fields thing has has affected Jake from I don't think that's okay study Okay, the LSU game was like a it was like a comedy of errors I mean it just and it really wasn't that bad But they abandoned the run game and his and Jake from for as good as he is and as accurate as he is He still needs a run game to to kind of lift him up He's only a sophomore the guy hasn't played a million snaps So it's not surprising that he's still pretty young in his development And when you abandon the run game put the game exclusively on his shoulder It's gonna be a little bit of a challenge for him to kind of to carry the load if you will You mean you mentioned you brought up drew lock in Missouri you mentioned Florida who has the easier time Getting back up this week Missouri is a 6.0 underdog in Gainesville is it Missouri who?
Couldn't get a first down in the second half gave a game away by not being able to get a first down They get a horrific PI call against them right and Kentucky scores or is it Florida? We had your chance to win the East against your biggest rival You're in the game in the third quarter then kind of you just kind of get beat the better team wins How tough is it gonna be for Missouri to get them on Saturday to get up or are they just in a mood where there's so angry? But you know what they're gonna come to play well, you know, this one this one's another tough one to go with I had to go one direction to the other I would probably take Missouri in the points looking at Florida right now They got a little exposed last week and they're gonna try to run the football and Missouri's pretty stout against the run They can hold up and hey have some dynamic guys in the front Felipe Frank's issues that kind of came to fruition last week I'm not sure they're going away I like Florida to win the game But I can't imagine they're gonna run away with it I would expect Missouri to keep it close and for the Florida defense to make a player to down the stretch and Sactory lock or force a fumble given the short field and they make a play and score a touchdown win the game But I expect this game to be pretty close and both teams I would expect a whole home performance from both teams I really would I just emotional wins last week by the opposition have a tendency to kind of stick with you and knowing that Florida is playing for a consolation prize and Missouri's Season is essentially on the line their coaches job is on the line. It's a gotta habit situation I would expect them to play a little better than they're probably capable of but Florida technically has a little more talent if Missouri had better wide receivers I'd like their chances of pulling the upset out right, but I certainly keep it close They're just not close enough to be Florida.
I need a quick pick from you on one game this week One and eight rice versus Longest losing streak in college football rice currently minus one at home over the minors. We got you up We'll be steamed. I'm going bloom grid. I I first of all you have you seen you tip Yeah, and that's exactly that's the that's the kiss of death like oh my goodness.
They've turned it around sure enough We don't like nothing. Yeah, they held them under 20. Wait. I mean I I feel bad for you, too Man, that's that's an impossible like that's an impossible job and looking at all the other schools in the state of Texas right now Like how many other schools are struggling?
I all of them are doing for the most part pretty well now There's an exception or two sprinkled in here there and rice is one of those exceptions But it's gonna get tougher and tougher and tougher because West Texas has dried up like the oil and there's just not the talent out there That there used to be however East Texas big time and and you have to think that that you tip is the job That's not gonna get a whole lot easier than it is right now Man, um, yeah, I know you're on rice you have to be yeah I think I'm gonna have to go with the go with the crispy sit-home there and even you I will say I want to see you tip when no no no college teams should go through a year completely wins I like to see you tip get it when you're in the final four games You know, they could win I mean they don't win this week they could potentially win in Western Kentucky God how how far have you talked about you want to know how good a coach Brahmas? Well, look at how far Western Kentucky is fall in the last couple of years and honestly on the off at the side of the football Like if we're gonna talk about like Western Kentucky used to light up the scoreboard now looking at Western Kentucky I can't score I think it's like 10 points 17 points 14. It's like oh my god at least when they would lose back in the day They'd score 40 now. They're like a they're nothing like they used to be it's wild man It is it is just that well What's this scenario for to travel back home Sunday?
Oh, yeah, I know that's a 6 a.m. Er wheels up and then touching down in Birmingham, Alabama Around 530p so a cool 14 hour travel. It's not it's not that uh, no, it's not quite that many It's because you lose a couple hours you lose two hours He's he remembered this weekend though spring ahead fall back. Oh, that's big.
That's big That means that means I might be able to have a bourbon by the time we finish this game go There you go back. Absolutely Tell back the pack the cooler for back this that right back to Spokane. Yeah Now you'll get to experience Friday morning at 4 a.m. Oh when the first email will be on the air in and why you guys were Exceptionally good-hearted and it's back in a loudy a little extra time to sleep.
Yeah. Well, I can promise you this much Mary You'll be filling it up for the half hour that you're with us. I won't have as many questions I can do that I'm good at that. I'm told beautiful.
Yes, fill it up all the way I'm just gonna hit you on the ponies. I'm gonna say hey, what do you think of Belmont 6 there you go tomorrow and then just let them go Well, actually if you want to be just a sink there break an accurate we've moved off the ball Mon to act with now the ball my meetings. Oh good call. Yeah, I apologize.
Yeah, we're south now I thought what am I thinking? Oh my gosh, I should just go the I should just go for the entire hour, right? Absolutely. Just why not so let us race by race aqueduct.
Let's do it. Is there anything going on right now in Del Marro? Through through the spring. Oh, he's dialed in dialed in And if in worst case you still have a bunch of races in Europe and and in like UAE So if it closes down here entirely in the continental US you'll go international bear.
I know you will not heart There's always there's always action somewhere And you are the one to find it. That's for sure. Well, try we'll try. Thank you brother.
Hi boys. You got a man without you Thanks again to Greg always great catching up with him and he's as in depth as there is all right bear It's time we mentioned earlier week 10. I can't believe it But there are some games that stick out to me. We've been on a pretty good run here And we want to try and continue it even though we know the numbers are stacked against us and we're ready But we're gonna keep firing.
I'm gonna stay in those early games. I look at South Carolina going to Ole Miss South Carolina not impressive last week. This is a new kickoff also, I believe One second. Yep, SEC Network noon Eastern the games up pick them I just I I like that Ole Miss as has found success I just think they're they're really flawed and I'm not saying South Carolina is a great team at all They're a decent team.
They're just more balanced and when I look at that Ole Miss team the defense is is not there Bentley is back. I noticed, you know, they tried doing a couple more things tempo wise I think South Carolina can score with them early if Ole Miss jumps out I just like South Carolina's team as a whole better much champion to be in the defensive minded We know I'll miss likes the sort of ball down the field I think South Carolina can run the ball and control the game. I'll take South Carolina to win this game They're a team that really is in need of a win. Yeah A team that I think is in need of a win or need of a revenge big statement type win is Michigan Point favorite home against Penn State and Penn State last year made Don Brown's defense look as inept and Awful as any offense I can ever imagine and it fits in with the whole Michigan revenge tour theme Why does beaten Wisconsin to be the top their team team team to beat him last year beat Michigan State or they struggle with It's finally beat that in state rival next on the hit list is Penn State, which just annihilated him last year at State College and Watching Penn State.
I think they've got a ton of defensive problems and I think Michigan coming home Shep Patterson's been playing better at home offensively. They are a completely different team And I think Tracy's early is gonna have a a very busy night running around and trying to avoid being on his On his back and on his side for a majority of the evening because I think it's a line has some problems as well This numbers 10 and a half and it's just a weird mentality on how I think I like the fact that it's 10 and a half Because I don't think those key numbers really matter as much College because I think the cakers are as good and I think the hook there kind of It's tempting people to take the underdog and maybe think twice about taking the favor again That's the way I think you can laugh at me do whatever, but I think this is a 38 17 type game in my opinion Wow, you think they score that much, okay? Yeah, all right. Yeah, I could see Especially how Franklin handled that ending of last year and oh, you know how he does it, you know keeping that foot on the gas I could see the man in the hat and glasses in Ann Arbor trying to try and make a statement I see what you're saying there.
I'm gonna stay in that noon slate. I mentioned I have a couple that I like I'm gonna go we are gonna ride this team into the ground until they don't cover anymore I don't care. I've talked about that Campbell. I much I love him.
I love seeing I was taking a ranking I'm you know big win last week in a lucky cover, but we'll take it as I was state traveling to Kansas. It's at noon KU coming in sky high off their win over TCU. They ended up 14 game losing streak But I was state I mentioned just love everything about him and I was reading according to Sagar and they have the toughest schedule In the country so far there, you know you tweeted earlier. They might this week.
They might have a shot Singing in the back door of the conference title game. They went undefeated in October Brock, pretty I meant, you know just been unbelievable their average over 39 points a game 460 yards of offense Montgomery 33 carries last week against Texas Tech, he leaves a big 12 and is 12th nationally and yards on the ground per game They're given 14 and a half. I just think their defense is good enough and Kansas. Maybe a little sky high as they mentioned I just like the spots It's not anything that's gonna get crazy It's not like Lawrence is gonna pack the joint for a noon kickoff as a ranked cyclones team comes in so we're gonna ride the clones man And let's stay on Iowa State.
We've wanted we need that one last week Good pleasant day as much as the Iowa State special teams tried to cost him that game with a couple of questionable decisions It was good to see that play call and Incredible that field put the game away not one of the main reasons I love them. They don't stop I In the most difficult thing amongst the scenario of what Iowa State would need to happen to get to the big culture championship game It's basically them winning in Austin. Everything else is is very likely to happen The game in love it is interesting to me our power numbers have Oklahoma is about an eight point favorite It's 13 and a half Don't you just get the sense after last week losing that game and it really didn't play great But we're still in it. I don't know about you.
I kind of feel like they're gonna get either Oh, you were Texas a couple weeks don't you More Texas more Texas. I don't know man. The Oklahoma scares the heck out of me and ever since mixtape said that he's there to scariest one Lost team. I totally agree You know they made a couple adjustments defensively since fire and stoops, but I see what you're saying I absolutely you know watching Texas second there They're not even getting close to the credit they deserve for being as prove that they are on both sides But hey, man leaving the crew are gonna be there I've been at that eight o'clock Eastern kickoff and love it things do get weird But it's tough for me to go against Lincoln Riley I can be very interested in taking the 13 and a half year in Texas second What's what I thought was in your favor is that the first number I saw in this game that really made me look was I saw Oklahoma minus 10 the first number I saw so 13 and a half you got to like what you're seeing there and again same weird way My brain is wired under 14 under too touchdown.
Wow. They win by 14. Yeah, we still win Is I'd be careful here? I think I think Bowman and Keck I think they're gonna put up some points on Saturday All right, I will add I know how you don't like you know We're in thick of conference schedules here and the big 12 is not on your Preferred list so I could see you being a little more upset at this game if we're to lose than others is that correct?
Maybe no not as I've got a much better feel on the big 12 this year have a state last week We've had Iowa State a bunch we've been okay with the had Texas that had TCU and so I would stay we've been much better with the Kansas when the non-conference game at Central Michigan Okay, we've been we've been better with the conference this year All right I'm just looking at the game and obviously everybody points to the last time this was in love it It was baholms in Mayfield and it was one of those games that you and I both can't stand with both You know so I could see that being one of these which you know about race possibly But I know how you know you and I get upset at those guys football games because we like same a little defense at least Correct. That's all so you're gonna be you're gonna take the Red Raiders plus 13 and half. Okay, very good I'm gonna go to my American conference. I'm looking at a team that's lost five straight And they're catching 13 and a half and that's the Naval Academy I loved what I saw in the second half against Notre Dame now I get that Notre Dame is is maybe you know Call off the dogs when they're up 27 nothing at halftime But what Navy's never gonna do is fold like a cheap suit or the suits that I own so They they're playing Cincinnati.
I was just you know looking at stuff here I mentioned 13 and a half since now he's been a great story I don't want to take anything away from fickle here But I just wonder if they're that much better than Navy who is you know what we know that option offense and ever gonna stop I went back and looked at last year because I want to know what happened here No, that's a defensive guy Navy ran for a school record 569 yards last year Think that might get brought up a little bit during the week I do but I also see how I mean I know the losing streak is there with Navy But I do see improvement from Navy I you know they might win this game, but I think Cincinnati. Yes, they have wings over you know teams like UCLA One and over time I believe they play in two straight overtime games losing the temple who we were both on and then winning at SMU last week But I just look at Navy catching almost two touchdowns there Obviously by up to 14 but Navy plus 13 and a half in a conference game against Cincinnati who's not known for their offense I think is what I'm you know I think they got caught playing a couple teams that were far superior offensive talent wise You know with the spread systems in that conference and knowing how many teams like to throw the ball in that conference I just think this matches up better for Navy and I think they keep it closer So I'll take Navy plus 13 and a half speaking of the American. How was the other game last week? I did not make it up I was gonna go to the right and catch you con in UMass But the 25 28 mile an hour win with rain sideways outside my house turned me off So I did not join the other 500 people that You call yourself a fan.
I'm sorry. I'm maybe not sure. That's quite all right Where are we? I lost my I lost my my my spaceship game like Greg was talking about I wanted to jump in and give my thoughts on the game there too, but I agree with him I kind of like Missouri this week getting the six points against Florida even though it's in Gainesville I do think that Missouri's defense can give Florida's offenses some problems And while I know Missouri put an absolute number on them last year and there's a bit of a yeah a revenge type situation there And you're on the road.
I kind of view that game a lot like Greg does in that I think that in the question I think Missouri just might be so just pissed off with the way they gave that game away That they're gonna come out and play really really well and while I think Florida should win the game I think it's gonna be a pretty close game and I would I would lean towards taking Missouri on the road plus those points I'm just gonna say one thing if Missouri gets blown out in this game I they are you want to talk about being a cross-off list They're not even gonna be mentioned on this podcast because that's gonna factor into that power You know that the games and you know the losses and the wins against the failure competition or even conference opponents That would drop them the phone five in the conference, right? Yep with an NFL quarterback like and then I watch them last week I'm sorry. Yeah, I'm still better because they cost me an undefeated week, but man, you gotta make some adjustments guys That's there's no way they should have lost that game and it just ties into everything that makes me so frustrated about them But I do agree with you here that it feels like people are gonna look at that game You know we talked about it with Greg and and say you know how much, you know We'll the previous week affect them and oh Florida's at home. They've been good at home blah blah blah But yeah, I could see it but man if Missouri does it again.
I'm gonna be so too It was a very very big win for those who might be holding Missouri under seven and a half win tickets correct Correct, but I was you know, I'm just you know I'm just calling a moment sometimes and little little a little frustrated, but we're moving on as you can tell Moving on to Cincinnati. Yeah, I'm Cincinnati. Um, we already picked against that. Uh, let's see a couple totals.
I'm looking at I'm just not you see is at core valice now Daniels is gonna play in this game One thing is they're giving 16 and a half. I don't trust any team going to go out and given that many points Now help you know had to fire as long time friend though line coach Callaway Obviously not pressing. Yeah, and then you know Lynn Swan comes out and says he likes where the program is you know You can't believe one word your hair not out of you know, Los Angeles concerning the Trojans But I looked at Oregon State obviously with the unbelievable comeback last week In Boulder and one thing Oregon State could do is score and if they jump out here, you see it's gonna be in trouble But the over-under is only 61. I feel like there's no doubt the winner of that game scores 40 plus no doubt So I like that over there We mentioned our Yukon Huskies their their total against Tulsa in Tulsa is only 59 I'm obviously Tulsa hasn't been what many people thought but that Yukon defense is historically bad I would lean to over and that game also a couple of totals there for you and do a little weather forecasting I've obviously as well because that Yukon you asked number last week to really really hire I think a lot of people thought it was gonna be a game in the 40s and then when that weather forecast came in it completely changed But I will I will add our listeners were the first people that I saw were on that with the nori third coming in with the wind in the rain So props everybody that's listening to this podcast and jumped out and and let the people know that you know Biggest might have had a wrong number on there and it drops ten points and it still came in so I appreciate the people at home Listen to this and doing their homework.
I really do And my next game I like Louisiana Tech getting that big number in Star Vegas was 23 24 so I'm scrolling through my 23 and a half Again Mississippi State last week finally broke through B-day and M-B-the-Rang team next week. They got Alabama It's a lot like that spot last year where they had you mass as a massive favorite down there in between some big SEC games and just enough to get by Louisiana Tech play that was you tough in Death Valley I believe they nearly beat South Carolina last week last year rather in Colombia It's the policy team isn't bad I think this is one of those like survive in advance sandwich game type spots for I think they'll win but I'm not interested in in laying 23 and a half points with the team that well I don't even think they scored 23 and a half points the last couple weeks behind before roughly in them games So give me a give me give me give me the Louisiana Tech plus the 23 at okay I'm gonna go one more total and that is back to the American Memphis in East Carolina My new favorite player in college football quarterback for VCU holding a lot of it looks just like T-Bo to me Now, I know people are gonna say talent. No in the uniform. I'm talking about he's a well-built lefty But he wears number 12 not 15 like T-Bo but the kids good man is a true freshman And I just like what he's seen you went 29 or 53 for 406 against UCF two weeks ago And I believe that was his first start I came in the second half the week before against Houston Oh and they were on bad beats that they had the ball on the goal line going in I think Three times and got zero points and we gave out the over that week because we thought the combination of him and Milton No, we didn't even play so we're gonna go back to to Greenville And but this game is no it is agree.
That's right. It is at East Carolina Memphis foreign for we know the offensive prowess But you know obviously mazoo took it to them as we can't get away from Missouri on this podcast But I like the over at 64 and a half so I like the over in this game between Memphis and East Carolina You talk about the mother of all spots If I'm fully ready to commit to this one But I need to just kind of do a little bit of full search and see if they're interested playing the remainder of the year But you've got Boston College as a two and a half point favorite at Lane Stadium a week after they completely Dominated Miami is a home upset win now. You're on the road as a road favorite in a spot where But you can take gave up a hundred and nine hundred rushing yards last week to Georgia Tech and next week you've got Clemson Coming to coming to Chestnut Hill and you control your destiny to reach the SEC Championship game in the Atlantic Division Now you talk about every single star aligning to make Virginia Tech to play here I Might need a day or so before I decide whether I'm gonna go in on this or not if I decide to I'll do a little a bit of in the in the column But I think that's that's one to keep an eye on one that I am good And this is a team that I had in the open out that you might have had as well with is UNLV We had them early in the year. Oh, yeah, it's USC with our money Rogers now He has missed a ton of time with the co-injury.
Yeah practicing again. They initially thought he was gonna be back next week for Hawaii There's been no commitment from Tony Sanchez whether or not he is going to play this week But I'm not sure that he's practicing potentially could give you an LV a bit of a boost So in my in my late night midnight get back game West Coast that you and all these 25 and a half point underdog against Fresno State Who I think is the best team for the group of five are they the best team in California? Yeah, they're absolutely the best team in California. I believe it They've been awesome defensively they've been fantastic Offensively with McMarry and their scoring points the only loss that they have was on a great play by Tom Winfield in the end zone And a bro game at a big 10 team in Minnesota They've got Boise State in a short week next week.
This is getting do what you need to do get out Nobody get hurt. They're not gonna go to Vegas and lose but 25 25 and a half I think with too many and especially if our money Rogers does play this week Which I think it's probably a little bit less than 50 50 that he does But the fact that he's that he's out there practicing now and they're saying maybe we were week early within a week 11 against Hawaii But you might have a little bit of chance. All right now You're saying Fresno's not gonna go to Vegas and lose but they maybe go to Vegas and party absolutely gonna go to Vegas and party December the the 15th for the for the Las Vegas ball Like to hear that Do you have any more before we do money line and there's a couple games? I thought about here a couple of them still kind of on the fence on Again, if I decide to go there, I'll I'll check the column posted up to you trick the calm I think SMU is in a good spot against Houston Houston off that big blowout win over fraudulent South Florida team They got temple next week SMU coming off the overtime loss a bit of a rivalry game getting two touchdowns at home against Houston could be the right play To lane we've seen them beat a team like Memphis late earlier the year They got South Florida so we know they can they can do well against against offenses that can put up some points and USF shows zero interest In tackling and I think that can vote that well for the TCU ground game.
So let me get to lane rather I think Tulane is interesting You on Monroe catch from Georgia Southern the week after the Eagles pull the upside over Appalachian State You on my row was off last week so that potentially could be a a good spot as well So that's where my head is right now where I'm thinking so we got a bunch for sure and those are the other ones that we're looking at How about what would I have to give you before the season if I told you when Stanford goes to Seattle play Washington neither team would be ranked I would have thought Washington would have been ranked for Stanford. I don't think it surprises me that they're not right the way there's Exactly. That's all it's more on Washington. I believe it.
So what's going on there? I mean sir, there's got here They are terrible offensively. I here's what I watched them. I actually was at the Colorado game and I think Browning's a little gun shy and what's crazy about it is that he puts the backup in last week the kid pulls the trigger It throws a big chance in the end so loose in the game So I think Browning got the call I think this is a very dangerous spot for Stanford because Washington does have an elite defense They do and they have really good receivers.
They're getting the tight end back. I mean I played last week That's I should have been my homework on that one But it's just I think it's Browning not pulling the trigger man I really do and I just I'm really interested because they obviously still have a little bit of a smile on their face because they know They can ruin their rival season at the end which they've done plenty of times But man that that that that team is just confused the heck out of me We do we should touch on the two other big games ban LSU and Notre Dame, Northwestern You like both dogs to cover one the other No, I don't like LSU to cover. I think that I think the number is a little Again 14 where we're on there. I don't think I think people are still kind of assuming Alabama is defensive minded plotting can't score even with the great year that that to win that offensive ad I I would lay it there.
Okay, the other game is interesting too I think this is the toughest remaining game for Notre Dame And it's amazing for me to think that a team could could lose to Akron and wind up beating Notre Dame and maybe playing in the big 10 Championship game in the same here, but a Forcing you know we threw some picks last week, but he's playing much better offensively Shouldn't have beaten Nebraska, but they did Be curious to see I don't know today and goes it'd be no day I would A lot of points I think Old isn't Northwestern gonna lose one of these games is an underdog eventually I'd be so great as a dog I don't be covering but winning outright aren't they gonna lose one of these eventually and that show I still don't think Brian Kelly first of all gets enough credit for the job. He's done because I mean people just I don't know They just maybe don't like his antics on that, but the guy you can't argue what he's done man And that offense is good. Yeah, is it complete man running back man, and I just look at no like it's just it's so just like 2012 everybody just tries to nitpick and pick against them and you know just Knock him on credit and it's perfect because it plays right into a very good team They get so much talent and I think that defensive line is something that Northwestern hasn't seen it Or yeah, they played Michigan But I mean obviously nor name took it to Michigan so I don't know I like LSU to cover more than Northwestern for sure, but what do you think what so if Alabama's minus 15? What's the first half line gonna be nine or ten?
Do you think they could lay that give that? I think it'll probably be at least 10 because of the level I think I think we'll be higher than you know Would it I think people are gonna run to the window and lay it. I'm curious to see how the first half goes What normally like it'll be great to see the coin toss because normally like yeah We'll defer for the second half and and if you're LSU you're taking the ball if you're Alabama You're taking the ball because if you're LSU you're taking the ball to see what Alabama have once you were possession Less time with the ball than the first half without Devin White and after Alabama Give me the damn ball. I want to be on the field without arguably the best player in college football Yeah, it's not a field so it'll be one of those weird interesting little quirks because of the suspension I said tonight that both teams are gonna want to win calls to take the ball one thing I will point out I was gonna give out Iowa But I've read some stuff this week and heard from some people Stanley bang up his thumb against Penn State late in that game During media availability.
He has like hand in his pocket the whole time So I don't know what's going on there I mentioned before the season I liked Iowa but the lack of depth behind him scared me away from their overseas and win total So that's something to really keep an eye on up until kickoff in that game I think Iowa has a good slowdown for do money line pick of the week I am going to go with the Tulane green weight. There we go. Yep. I'm doing it Well, I think I gave a good lean for for two for Tulane rather you're going money line on Tulane That's doing no did we know how well the other crossover games have gone Yeah, I hate to do this is the money line game.
I think you love it. I don't I don't love it, but How how can you expect Miami to win a game right now? Oh their their quarterback situation is a mess They're offensive line is a mess. I think there's more going on there a quarterback that it then mark Rick basically saying I'm a lead grower gives by a chance to win No Did you watch the second half of the Florida State game or watch Perry throw the ball against North Carolina?
I beg to differ. I think there's more going on there. I don't know if Rick doesn't like Perry ever What what but do coming off of an embarrassing performance against it as an underdog they play so well under clutch lift Last year, I know my end one on the road in one but I certainly certainly wouldn't lay nine and a half and but I would be interested in sprinkling a little on the money line with the With the blue doubles on on Saturday night It's gonna be an empty but angry fan base. I think Hard Rock Stadium.
You want to set it up because goals aren't being met for the year the fans are upset that they roger's the quarterback They're upset at how poor they're playing And that Saturday night there I think you're gonna see a lot of empty seats and the ones that are there I think the bluebirds have a chance to come out very early all right Tough one for my dookies last week needed that one to to clinch it a push for the wind total So we're getting down in nitty-gritty and yes, I am nervous But big one for BC this week the one thing I will say you know you like you mentioned maybe for jimmy second the column that games at 345 I think that makes a little difference. I think that helps BC a little bit in that one Well the vaunted home field advantage that is Lane Like we in the big home game like once they did once it was in 2000 what? Three against Miami. I think you would remember that one But yeah, you need what one to push yeah, yeah Yeah, you're gonna favorite in home against both North Carolina and Wake Forest.
Yeah, I'd like to well if you're taking This week, we'll take your day. You're gonna get it at least a push on that all right You're gonna get a least a push on that if not still win all right Definitely not losing that you got anything else before we pick some ponies here No, I'm ready to move on it. Could you imagine on the first Saturday in a November with the Breeders Cup of Churchill Downs The biggest story in the state is Kentucky football. It's crazy absolutely amazing But hey, that's a call like I said it's great to them stoops believe in his kids and all that Like you they're not in one or not I shouldn't say they're ranked number nine in the latest rankings and it's I can't wait to see it unfold I do have to click over and see a little SEC nation Saturday while you guys are in commercial just to see that vibe in Lexington I will believe me All right, here's the deal bears got Numerous picks for the Breeders Cup Friday and Saturday So we're gonna do is I'm gonna open the floodgates and bear is just gonna go until he doesn't have any more picks So get your pen and your pad out and get your your racing sheets out and bears gonna run through all the picks for the Breeders Cup this week It's one of my favorite, but yeah My live horse rating racing betting on Friday and Saturday are pretty limited because of the games going on I do most of my handicapping Thursday night Friday night even earlier in the week and then just kind of Shout out what I think my plays are gonna be to put myself in a any good position So well, yes people have been asking about it on Twitter So I the column will be up at some point in the next couple of days But I do have some thoughts on each of these previous races for you Let's go well, we'll start I will start on Friday with the the long illustrious juvenile turf sprint and I'm gonna take a stand against the favorite strike silver I think there's a ton of value in the race.
I don't think I apologize, but I don't have the program numbers in front of me I just literally wrote names down so maybe Steve or if you guys remember this will be the juvenile turf sprint I believe it's race five on up on Friday So perfect isn't gonna be anywhere near 12 to one on the morning line But but I think she's a must use even in here against the boys She's double the price of serve circuit for lucky off who she beat home in August at the Cura So I think she's invaluable soldiers call One of the shorter prices in the race. I think she's gonna be part of a pretty hot pace And I don't know how long he wants to go. I'm gonna take a shot with a real price pricing here I do know pocket dynamo is in over 12 for us and he's 20 to 1 and I think the last his last race looks to have been Pretty much a prep off of a long layoff and I don't necessarily think he's gonna need to lead So I take a price with a long shot pocket dynamo and use up so perfect and you're at your exotics as well. All right, so that's the 12 Along with a 10 if you are a little exact the box action for people there you go perfect Jude the juvenile Phillies curve I think possesses one of the more likely winners on the 2d card chat Brown's really brilliant to your old Billy Use paper of record.
She's got great tactical speed She's been on the lead in the front and she's known no signs of being close to being beaten I think she's gonna be tough and be very tough to even keep out of the other try as well But you know how I like the play races. I like to find some long shots and price horses to mix in in the exact it in the try to To get a little bit of value. So while along with these paper of record, I'll use Bell Laura I believe is the eight it's her second try against winners seven stellar agent and the two the Mac and bullet as a price horses with favorite with the with the favorite and tries and exact is all right So that's race six on Friday 5 8 7 2 For the numbers people out there exactly and I guess if you need to rewind this back or just find this this information It's gonna be a game time So you can certainly take match names and numbers there the juvenile Phillies is the next race on on Friday And I've been a fan of Bella Fina all summer long She's bread and the purchase price everything about her to steal a treble diamond line exudes class And I know she's drawn outside and it's been a theme with a lot of favorites over the couple of a couple of days That a lot of the favorites are drawn outside in bad posts I don't necessarily think post 10 is gonna be terrible for her because it's gonna force her into a stalking trip with all of the other Speed in there. I think she's a short prize I think people are gonna try and beat her because I do think there are some some other words in there That do fit and they do make a lot of sense But I'm gonna stick with Bella Fina and I'll use a reflect restless rider and vibrance as some price horses underneath in my ex I'm all right.
So one three four ten ten on top obviously with Bella Fina there and that is race seven on Friday And then race eight the next race the juvenile turf race. I think this race is Begging for a long shot price. I think the top choices in the race Anthony van Dyke current and 40 under all have knocks against them This is a race I think if you're playing pick fours and pick five you're really gonna want to be deep in here The horse that I like the most is line of duty who's been favored Yeah, who's been favored in all four of the starts and now he's 10 to one Give me give me that all day long I doubt you're gonna get 10 to one because I think people will notice the running lines and notice that little asterisk noting that he's been So well-backed but I think he figures and I think if you're looking for a couple of other ones Maybe Henley's joy and even track Smith if he does draw into the race is worth using on your ticket Okay, Henley's joy the sixth there, but line of duty I like also is at five and as you mentioned 10 to one now and after people read the column in here this podcast probably You're off as a favorite like to I don't know about that short. I can see maybe six All right, that's a possibility all right anything else on Friday Yeah, we have one more reason to juvenile which is always is a race that people Starts dreaming about the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown possibility for next year and in shocking fashion.
I imagine this Bob Bafford has the favorite in the juvenile With the two-year-old named game winner and he kind of jumps off the page at me Again another outside post but not all the way outside Again, I think he's a practical a tactical speed type very very tractable and in versatile in his running style And I think you can work something out from there. I know Complexity is a horse from the Chad Brown barn. Yeah is aired and looked really good in his couple of starts But McLean's music they really don't want to go much longer. I know His his previous winner last year with by the claims music so they can but I don't know how much I don't think complexity is gonna get the easy trip up front like he's had in his first couple of starts I think you could use a standard deviation who would Keeneland from the 13th Hall still manage the third place finish Behind a fluke 70 to one winner named Nick's go.
I know you're a big Nick's guy So I think standard deviation is worth using I think signal man who also was stuck really far outside a brutal post a 14 No bargain he could come running late and maybe pick up a piece or so a bun metal gray is a horse that I think if you're looking for a price To mix in there you could use him his second starting its winners here He was three to one against game winner at Santa Anita and if he improves you would think that he could be a contender for the try one more set could win and part of things but I know why I think I Love should be gay and when he runs a two-year-old in a big spot like this They're usually very well meant so I think coat of honor could be yeah Yeah, he could be that wise guy horse though He's five for one in the morning line and you could get back down to like seven to two or three to one Or maybe even lower on a day like this and he could win But I just don't think you're gonna get the value in terms of where he stacks up on the morning line What do you think goes off as a favorite now one game winner complexity? I think game winner will just because about the Bob the Bob the Opera Association got I think his success there Anyone triple-crowd and being so successful with juveniles I think I'll be here But I think it will be close just because of Chad Brown winning the winner last year with good magic and his his his His door horses are running a whole lot better now. All right. Let's go to Saturday, shall we we shall and we will start in the other Philly and Mayor sprint Cell cord is a horse who's beaten Marley's freedom before but I don't like the running I don't like the the layoff lines and the way this works is run I think he's got the makings of a horse Kinda has problems and they have to be very judicious in how they race him John Sadler's the Breeders cup record is not One that is up very good either.
So I think I get short-priced Marley's favorite. I don't know Marley's freedom Is he it's my favorite in the race? I think she's gonna be hard to beat as well, but since Baffert took her took her over in his barn She's won four races three different tracks. I think if you're looking to beat her The horse to look at would be golden mischief Brad Cox's runners tend to run very big at times I will say in the people who are horse racing a junkies kind of know what I mean there His horses tend to run big big numbers every now and then on big days So I think golden mischief is one to take a look at as well as Miss sunset She's kept good company out west for a being a calibrate and been pretty competitive and a lot of greatest Things so I think this sunset might be a horse that you could potentially use Careful in this race golden mischiefs the five also my and mischief.
That's the eight So get your mischiefs right. I know it's Halloween mischief night people in the Halloween spirit. So careful bet not race Miss Prince costing yourself money on bad days Or always a problem In the way we got next we got the turf sprint is next so I know or yeah, we race for I want no part of the favor No party just a partner Christmas come on Record at Churchill is not very good. His best running has been done at Belmont This isn't all much stormy liberal won the race last year 30 to one But he doesn't leave much margin for error.
He kind of gets up late and I want to get some here I think it's gonna be hard for him to repeat Vision perfect is a horse that I really like it here He will be all over my ticket Jason service has a couple of horses in here And when he has a multiple horses the race typically means that he's alive and not only live but the longest price of his horses will win So I vision perfect is a horse that I would really use a lot They're going back to Brad Cox again We'll call this two for two over the Churchill course Ruby notion is improved greatly since going from Wesley Ward to Derrick Miller wait which you'd never say Lost treasure takes blinkers off and favored in his last two starts 8 no Brian's horses 21. I just gave you a lot of horses. This is why I want no part of this department I just ripped off six horses that I think could win the win the race easily double digit prices It looks like one of those one of those races where where prices going for sure The dirt mile is a race It won't be one that you really want to get to invested in as you're playing pick for the big five You probably get through the race by just using city of light and Catalina cruiser The Philly and Mariterf is a really interesting race for me The horse that kind of was a horse I was hearing about from people who followed the European racing Is era if she's kind of been pointed towards this race all year long, but you drew outside post 14 And that's a really no bargain from all the way out there despite the draw I'm still gonna use it because that's not impossible and if she if she wins and pays 30 $40 I'm gonna be less than thrilled with myself But I do think while delusion is the horse to beaten here if she runs back to the couple races she's run Last two out there on her for second Chad Brown's Billy sister Charlie is 301 But I don't know her forming Europe wasn't exactly that of upper level type horses And then maybe Chad Brown will his improved her enough where she can be competitive against a horse like wild illusion But I don't know that the other Chad Brown in the race is a horse that I While New York bred by Freud doesn't scream breeders top winner on the turf for the four-score crook is a horse that in her career She's finished out of the money twice our debut and her third race I think she could be a bit of a forgotten horse and maybe drift up on the board and you potentially could get a little bit of value with With the horse there that she runs consistently hard-knocking and she is taking a liking to potentially a soft ground and with the weather in Kentucky this week, I would not expect a firm turf horse at all. All right We're getting that we got five more to do we sure know we do the sprint is a race that I think is really been hurt by the mile A lot of these sprinters try to stretch out to a long distance So the sprint used to be a great race full of full field and you get a lot of long shots I don't think they're gonna be super super prices in this rate.
We'll probably get that down from his six to one morning line He's six for eight lifetime of Churchill. I think you're gonna see Imperial hint promises to fill the distinctive B Throw is throwing down on the front end And I think that it's gonna set up for someone whether it's limousine liberal or Roy H Who was from the same barn as distinctive beat? So so I think Roy H could be a horse from the outside that could work out a good trip with more I would like I want to like I think you're gonna need to judge Whitmore on His race at Churchill and make did he a run poorly because of the drawing the rail or B Did he run poorly because of the swap if you think he ran poorly because of the rail? He's on the rail again here and you're not gonna want to use it But if you think it was more out, you know what?
He didn't like to track that day I'm willing to give another shot you're probably gonna get a really good price on Whitmore at about six or seven to one and And I think the way the race sets up piece wise. I think you can certainly use him. We'd love to see what more live up to the hype It had one day have one time. Yeah, he was cut cut cut in back and he's definitely been better as a As a spread there is some for a long time horse than that going along in a mile I'm I only could could probably be his his max.
I'm glad he's running the sprint instead of the dirt mile But the turf mile is we're just a mile as it's called is another wide open type race People I think are gonna flock to analyze it from the chat around barn who Fantastic early in the year But then in his next couple of races he just kind of hung he'd get to the lead and just kind of get a little bit lazy And any lead horses back into the race. So I'm not necessarily on board with analyze it even with the weight break Horse I like is Polly dream. I think she had a brutal trip in her last race at Long Shobwin pretty obvious I think to me that she was a total prep for the race I Think she's a square five to one shot here. She was three to two when she was beating over in France And I don't know how much money she's gonna take so hopefully we'll get a pretty good price on her The other Chad Brown horse almond R is pretty interesting at 12 to one He ran huge in the Arlington million when he was beating just a half a length by Robert Bruce Then from post 13.
I think it was a key when he ran terrible Chad Brown has improved him from his European form. He kind of fit over in Europe and ran well So he wouldn't be a shocking to me here and expert eyes another three-year-old who gets who'll get a skis I'm way here drew better than analyzed analyze it did here and I think he'd give another one who could win But I think probably dream is my top choice and I'd make up expert eyes my backup choice. All right And the Staff is a race where I think you need to go into it saying Am I going to give the race to able Tasman or am I going to try and beat able to ask them because I think you can make a good argument For both schools of thought whether you think you forgive her for the loss of when she was horrific And then you remember and then you can remember how great she was in the Kentucky Oaks great Saratoga If you're gonna say it's either single or just go really deep But I think it's a race where if you don't like able Tasman I don't know if you necessarily want false amount of my girl For post she won from post 14 in the Oaks. She's drawn all the way outside again end of a tough three-year-old campaign So it's no bargain for her there and then midnight be soo is a horse who?
She improved a ton in Rana a one-on-one by her last start which I think was seven points higher than any other of her lifetime starts In my opinion, I think she's more likely to to regress and Balance and find herself in the winter cycle. So if you don't like able to ask them I wouldn't necessarily just fall to midnight or sue and Monamoy girl as your winner I mean I could really see myself using a horse like champagne dreams in a really big number with Calvin Burrell free and Wilkes draws inside and This is a race where I think you're able to have and wins deservingly as the favorite or the other tote board is lit up Able to has been very close to my heart bear because I was there as I mentioned for Kentucky Oaks one couple years back And she ran awesome that day got a great and just came rolling home and So much the best and maybe that's a the type of trip that trip that day would work pretty well on Saturday All right race 10 The term I think is another one of the more logical winners on the card enable She's nine for ten lifetime. She drew post to a lot can happen over a mile and a half But I think she's gonna be tough to beat her biggest competition as a horse But anyone well-guiced who drew terribly outside in post 12 That could be still like them. You're gonna probably gonna get better than the nine to two morning line eyes that they're on him right now And I will say this if these jockeys like gold glorious empire get away and lean like rude get away with an easily I think he's gonna come right back to the mucky has it's like I thought he would say I told him They might be selling mistake because glorious empire is a game horse and we'll see if he can class up doors like a Naval or a wall guys I don't know but a glorious empire if he gets away on an easy lead He could be a very tough to pass in the lane But if the trip of the pay if the races run the way it looks like it's set up on paper and able just stands out clearly over this field and especially with long-guys post Got it Moving on who do you like in the classic?
Yeah, do you have any thoughts on the class? I don't like I don't like thunder snow because Kenny mains on thunder snow again Yeah, unlike the Derby I could kind of make a case from here, okay What do we got? It's gonna end up being 14 horses. Yeah, it's gonna be 14 horses accelerate You can have accelerate for both 14 on the outside I'll I can see myself going like six or seven deep in this race and I won't use accelerate I know much.
I don't know much about Mackenzie Mendelssohn I've seen enough of it feels like but then whenever I give up on it It's it's gonna come back. Well, how would tell me about mine your biscuits Mine your biscuits. I think it's gonna be a forgotten horse in here. I think with the return of Mackenzie I think Mendelssohn who you I wouldn't bet with your money Catholic boy, I think it's a horse at the three-year-old people like to bet the three-year-olds Yeah, he's classics up.
I don't know but mine your biscuits like posse doesn't scream breeders cup classic disinsider But in his last couple of races he's had the look of a horse that doesn't necessarily mine going long He's finished well and I can see him getting a big part of this race I Think it sets up for a long shot because I think Mackenzie's gonna go the front I'm sorry. It's gonna go the front like Mendelssohn's gonna go to the front And I think you're looking at I think the winner comes from a group of four horses I mentioned mine your biscuits who I think it figures Pavel won the Steven Foster over this track Mario good year is And Doug O'Neill has done very well. It's Churchill downs I think he's got a little bit of wise guy potential as well So you might not get 20 to one but I still think you're gonna get a good price on him I thunder so I know Kenny you said he's back on him, but yeah, I think they're you look at his dirt form since the Kentucky Derby He really won a winning race last time out in the jockey goal club. He should have won that race but I Think he's got the right style Maybe this is the the Breeders Cup classic for Godolphin that alluded to Sakhi in 2001 with that great stretch drive with up with Tis now and then you she'd a Bob Bob Bob is about to say about Patrick I don't not though about his trainer.
He usually wings big races at big prices And your sheet is gonna be probably 10 12 to one or so and the thing that your she has going for him is his two best figures Number one came on dirt in his last start in the when it's there toga another time in a turf race at Churchill downs So we shown he's like the turf at Churchill He's shown he's like the dirt now Can you kind of with the two together and say you know I like the dirt in Kentucky as well But West Coast can win but I'm kind of different on his chances He's on West Coast right Johnny means on West Coast that he can win but he seems like more of an underneath type of worse Like I said, I think the winner comes from either mind your biscuits thunder snow pommel your sheet I lost a lot of money previously on loan sale or two, so I think I'm done with loan sale another three year old Yeah, it's tough. I like your call of being a long shot here because of what we've seen from so many of these horses So you know she does the one I don't know mind your biscuits. Just look at the numbers I think I feel like that's gonna be the one who goes off as a favorite. I think accelerate will go off as a favor Even from the outside.
Yeah, I don't think McKinsey well West Coast could I think it would be either accelerator west coast would be my guess all right and then I'll say there's a five And then what's or I rad is on the four I believe that's correct. I don't have the the PPS in front of me I should yeah The other RTS is on your sheet So you got an exact the box for me yeah I box those four or I box those four horses on your biscuits under snow pommel and you she to throw accelerate completely out If you want to put West Coast in there make it a five-horse exact a box of mine your biscuits thunder snow pommel you sheet up And West Coast maybe you could do that maybe that might work out for you alright probably eight West Coast the seven You're sheet of the ten mind your biscuits the eleven. I like it Alright anything else to say on your your upcoming Saturday from Churchill. I say you're gonna be there But you'll be there to say it's going to be a it's gonna be a challenging weekend to just kind of like beyond that plane from Baton Rouge to Ann Arbor and just kind of like see like results just like flash up and not getting a chance to actually watch many of these races But I I as you can tell I had thoughts on all of them and hopefully a couple these thoughts a couple These prices will pan out and be a profitable couple days awesome Alright, we'll say we'll give our goodbye as normal here.
Good luck to all with the football and the horses bear Take us away remember bless you bet the more you lose when you win