Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 03, 2026

## Market Overview- NIQ off-premise: total bev-alc dollars -3.6% YoY to $8.8B; volume -5.1% to 173.8M cases (4 wks ending 6/20)- Weekly bump +2.9% on World Cup, Juneteenth, early Father's Day- Wine -5.1%/-6.8%; Spirits -5.2%/-4.7%; Beer -3.7%/-4.5%- RTD cocktails the standout: spirits-based RTDs +28%/+28.5%; wine-based RTDs +7.3%- Top RTD growth brands: Cutwater (A-B, +124.5%), Surfside (Stateside, +57.5%), Sun Cruiser (Boston Beer, +101.8%)## Beer- World Cup on-premise lift: national +5.5%, host markets +15.4%, Massachusetts +27.5%, NY/NJ +9.1% total/+18.5% on-premise, stadium concessions +21.7%- BeerBoard: host states +14.21% kegs/line, +12.07% revenue vs. +2.99% non-host- Michelob Ultra: 19.25% draft volume share (official World Cup beer); Pacifico #2 draft gainer- NIQ vendor rankings: New Belgium +4.6%, Asahi +38.8%, Sapporo +23.4%, Athletic Brewing +7.4%, Diageo +3.5%- Circana craft: dollars -4.6% (flat sequentially), volume improved to -6.2%; grocery weak, c-stores positive- Brand winners: Lagunitas Sumpin' Sumpin' +20.7%, Elysian Space Dust +12.5%, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing +8.7%; Blue Moon -10.7%- NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index: 52 (4th straight expansionary month); imports +23pts to 61; cider hits 50 first time since 2018- NA beer +10.7%; Athletic Brewing now 16th-largest beer vendor YTD## Constellation Brands Earnings- Q1 FY27 EPS $3.43 beat ($3.19-3.21 est.); net sales $2.43B; beer sales $2.28B (+2%)- Wine/spirits organic sales +8% (Mi Campo Tequila +62%) despite reported -47% post-divestiture- FY guidance raised to $11.50-$12.20 EPS (from $11.20-$11.90)- CEO Nick Fink flags value-conscious consumer, GLP-1 impact, "pony" format strategy## Wine- NIQ: dollars -5.1%, volume -6.8%; NA wine +14.4%; Gallo #1 despite -4.1%; Deutsch Family +1.1%- DTC premiumization: avg bottle price $54.64 (+17%); $150+ shipments +21% to $465M; sub-$40 volume -20%- Geographic shift: CA $100+ shipments -8%, Oregon -30%; Florida +50%, Arizona value 2x+- NABCA May: wine 9L volume -8.8%, on-premise -9.8%- Restaurant wine markups now 4-5x wholesale vs. historical 3x## Spirits- Brown-Forman: Goldman Sachs reinstates Sell, $24 PT; rejected Sazerac bid ($32/share or $15B reported); Pernod Ricard talks collapsed; stock -63% since 2021- WSWA SipSource: spirits depletions improving marginally (-4.19% Q1'26 to -3.68% Q2'27); vodka outperforming; rum/Irish whiskey/brandy lagging- Pernod Ricard: Citi trims FY26 guidance to -3/-4%; Americas organic sales -9.4%; Jefferies models dividend rebasing- NABCA May: spirits 9L volume -1.7%, dollars -4.4%; cocktails/RTDs +21.8% volume; tequila -0.2%## M&A / Distribution- RTD dealmaking: "seller's market" per Arlington Capital/JPMorgan (Molson Coors-Atomic Brands $257M, AB InBev-BeatBox $490M, Sazerac's BuzzBallz/Svedka/Western Son)- Kroger to acquire Giant Eagle for $1.65B (197 stores, $9B sales); Foran's first major deal- Columbia Distributing/RNDC: 850K case transfer (OR/WA)- Trinchero taps Reyes Beverage Group for TX/LA/OK/MD/VA/DC- Keg 1 Missouri acquires Fechtel Beverage (1M+ cases); KEG 1 network now 14 states/130M cases- Edrington exits American whiskey, sells 80% of Wyoming Whiskey to WW Partners## Corporate/Leadership/Legal- Uncle Nearest: Fawn Weaver terminated by court-appointed receiver ahead of sale- Diageo closes Aviation American Gin's Portland flagship- Campari America faces wrongful termination/disability discrimination suit- Congo Brands (Prime Hydration/3D Energy) WARN notice: 28 layoffs, Louisville HQ, post-Alani Nu $1.8B sale to Celsius- Ste. Michelle Wine Estates closes Northstar facility, consolidates at Columbia Crest- Anchor Brewing faces union pressure from ILWU Local 6- Brad Pitt Château Miraval suit against Yuri Shefler can proceed in CA court## Regulatory/Legislative- CA AB 1585 ("American" wine labeling) pulled after heavy lobbying (Gallo, Constellation, Delicato, Wine Group, Southern Glazer's, Breakthru)- SPIRIT Act (HR 9407): $2.35/proof gallon FET credit for small distillers; ACSA-endorsed amid first-ever craft distillery count decline- Napa groundwater fees: $98.74/acre; SVB reports ~half of CA wineries unprofitable- SCOTUS to hear RiseandShine v. PepsiCo trademark case- FDA accepts MRTP application for 20 ZYN varieties; Fifth Circuit upholds menthol vape marketing block## Consumer Sentiment- Conference Board Consumer Confidence: 91.2 (from 90.6); job "hard to get" sentiment highest since Jan 2021- U. Michigan Sentiment: 49.5 (from 44.8), still ~30% below year-ago; inflation concern highest since Feb 2025- YouGov: 36% drinking less alcohol vs. 5% drinking more; top reasons: desire (50%), health (35%), cost (20%)- Numerator July 4th survey: beer intent 72% (-2pts), spirits 43% (+7pts), wine 34% flat; $117/person avg spend, $22B nationwide; Walmart 56% traffic share- Beer Institute/Morning Consult: 95% of hosts plan to serve beer## Retail- Costco: wine >50% of bev-alc sales, spirits 35-40%, beer <20% (inverted vs. typical retail); $6.5-7B global bev-alc sales- Amazon Prime Day: $26.4B spend (+9.3%); avg household spend -8% to $143.45 (Numerator)- Winn-Dixie converts 8 Harveys locations; new FL stores planned- Darden: LongHorn SSS +9.5%, tops $1B in sales; Olive Garden SSS +2.4%## International Trade- UK spirits exports to US -60% value Q1 2026; UK whisky -27%, gin -24%- US spirits exports to UK +144.5% value, +202.2% volume## Product Launches- Buffalo Trace "Prohibition Collection" Vol. 3: 5 historic brands revived, 375ml sets at $999.99## Corporate Outlook- Citi reiterates AB InBev Buy ahead of July 30 earnings; FY26E organic EBITDA guidance 4-8%, Citi models +5.9%; Capital Markets Day Sept 21-23