Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 01, 2026

**Week of April 27 – May 1, 2026**### Distribution Upheaval- **RNDC dissolution accelerates**: Columbia Distributing acquires Oregon/Washington/Alaska; Martignetti takes 13 control states + brokerage in 4 more; Reyes Beverage Group closing on 11 states by late May; Manhattan Beer acquires RNDC-Opici NY distribution rights; Great Plains buyer TBD; Illinois JV in flux- **2,774 WARN Act notices** issued across six states; Strauss Borrelli launches investigation in South Carolina- **Brown-Forman** completes historic 18 control-state distribution realignment — Johnson Brothers, Southern Glazer's, Superior Beverage, Great Lakes Wine & Spirits named- **Southern Glazer's** adds Edrington's full portfolio (including The Macallan) in New York, effective June 1- **Johnson Brothers** expands J. Lohr partnership across Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota- **Southern Crown Partners** to acquire Milestone Beverage in South Carolina- **BMO survey**: ~25% of US wineries lost a primary distributor in 2025; 36% in Napa County; ~50% currently seeking new partners### M&A & Corporate Strategy- **Pernod Ricard–Brown-Forman merger collapses** over share capital imbalance (50% Brown family vs. 14% Ricard family)- **Sazerac** reported $15B bid for Brown-Forman ($32/share); separately signs exclusive US distribution deal with **818 Tequila** (Kendall Jenner)- **Diageo CEO Dave Lewis** restructuring regional management; mid-May notifications expected; US spirits sales down 10.4% in latest Nielsen period; selling majority stake in East African Breweries to Asahi for $2.3B- **The Wine Group** acquires **Phony Negroni** non-alc brand from St. Agrestis- **Fat Brands** completes Ch. 11 auction: Hot Dog on a Stick ($8M to Amazing Brands), Elevation Burger ($2.5M to Kuwait franchisee group); 16 remaining brands via credit bid### Earnings Highlights- **Molson Coors**: Q1 profit $151.3M ($0.80/share), revenue $2.35B — beat on top and bottom line; volumes -2.9%; Fever-Tree and Topo Chico outperform; Q2 volumes guided -6% to -9%- **Boston Beer**: Net loss of $145.3M (-$13.88/share) on Ardagh litigation charge; adj. EPS $1.64 (missed $1.96 consensus); revenue $433.9M; shipments -6.9%; full-year guidance lowered- **Becle (Jose Cuervo)**: Net profit down 67%; North America volumes -24%; US tequila imports down 32% in 2025- **MGP Ingredients**: Distilling Solutions revenue -40%; brown goods -56%; Limestone Branch and Lux Row distilleries paused; Penelope Bourbon +10%- **Coca-Cola**: Organic sales +10% (beat 6.5% consensus); adj. EPS $0.86; full-year guidance raised to +8-9%### Market Data & Scanner Trends- **Beer BPI** surges to 59 — first expansionary reading in 21 months; all segments improve YoY- **Beer scanner volumes** -1.4% L4W; -5.0% L2W (Easter distortion); ABI and Molson Coors outperform broader market- **Total alcohol** dollar sales $8.1B (L4W ending 4/18), down 2.9% YoY; spirits -6.0%; wine -4.9%; beer -2.0%- **Prepared cocktails** only growth category: dollar sales +4.4%; RTDs +28.8% per Jefferies tracker- **Energy drinks** +7.5% L2W; Alani Nu (Celsius) +51.7%; Ghost +22%; Monster Ultra +11.2%- **NABCA control state spirits** volume +1.2% MoM in March but dollar volume -1.6%; Scotch +11.4%### Wine Sector- **California acreage** down to 540K acres (-12% in two years); 21K+ acres removed in 12 months- **Scanner data**: wine dollars -4.9%, volume -6.1% (L4W); Josh +4.7%, LaMarca +12.8%; Barefoot -6.1%- **DtC**: March shipment value +5% YoY to $462M (first gain in 12+ months); avg. bottle price record $66.96; Napa +14% in value- **Non-alc wine** only growth segment: +15.8% dollars, +11% volume- **Fraud wave**: James Wellesley sentenced (10 years, $100M scheme); Patrick Briones guilty plea; Jeffry Hill sentenced- SVB: wineries with "very weak" financial health nearly tripled since 2022### Trade & Tariffs- **Trump removes all whisky tariffs** (10% on Scotch/Irish whiskey + pending 25% single malt tariff) following UK state visit- SWA estimated £4M/week in lost exports; American Whiskey Association hails "meaningful win"- **Heineken** files suit against US government over tariff overpayment- Strait of Hormuz disruption: crude at $119/bbl; shipping rerouted around Cape of Good Hope; urea costs +50%### Regulatory & Policy- **California AB 1585**: would require 100% US-grown grapes for "American" wine labels (currently 75% minimum); advances to Appropriations Committee; opposed by Wine Institute and Treasury Wine Estates (Penfolds)- **NY wine-in-grocery debate**: Metropolitan Package Store Association + UFCW oppose; 50K+ jobs cited at risk- **SNAP cuts**: payments -8% since November; 11% of US food/bev sales affected; California, NY, Illinois waiver expirations ahead- **CT dram shop case**: $375K settlement for Hartley & Parker distributor liability case- **WA AG sues** Albertsons/Safeway over $20M in deceptive BOGO pricing- **WHO-backed** "3x35" initiative targeting 50% price increase on alcohol, tobacco, sugary drinks by 2035- **First Citizens Bank** retiring SVB name in Q4 2026; wine lending division continues### Consumer & On-Premise- **Gallup**: US adult alcohol consumption at 54% — lowest in 90 years- **On-premise** value velocity +5% YoY; ticket counts +7%; avg. check -2% (belt-tightening)- **Amazon** now #2 US grocer; perishables sales +40x YoY; Prime Day moving to June- **FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): 48 teams, 104 matches, 75% on US soil; ~1B pint global uplift; ABI primary beneficiary (+0.52% volume)- **Michigan spirits** sales down to $1.78B from $1.895B; cannabis substitution cited; Red Wagon Troy purchases -25.4%- **Henkell Freixenet** non-alc products +18% in 2025; assumes Korbel global distribution- **Gen Z** alcohol participation jumps 46% ? 70% in two years- 42% of on-premise consumers likely to try mini cocktails### Key TakeawayThe US beverage alcohol industry is experiencing a once-in-a-generation restructuring across distribution, demand, and consumer behavior. RNDC's collapse is redrawing wholesale geography. Prepared cocktails and RTDs are the only organic growth engine. Wine faces a structural correction. Spirits are contracting outside of value-oriented and RTD segments. Beer has the most constructive near-term setup heading into the FIFA World Cup. And the consumer — squeezed by inflation, drawn to non-alc alternatives and cannabis, and culturally embracing moderation — is fundamentally changing the demand equation for every player in this space.