Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | November 7, 2025

Market pulseBeer BPI at 24, 11 months of contraction. Q3 on-premise: draft –1.8%, packaged –5.1%.Off-premise week ending Oct 26: TBA –5.5% YoY; beer –7.2%, wine –4.5%, spirits flat. Premixed cocktails +34%.September domestic beer shipments +1% YoY, but YTD –5.1%.Share movers and bright spotsDraft leaders: Michelob Ultra, Miller Lite, Coors Light, Modelo Especial, Bud Light.Gainers: Pacifico, Blue Moon, Busch Light; in retail, Pacifico, Guinness, Athletic NA, Angry Orchard, Goose Island.RTD velocity leaders: High Noon, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, Nütrl; scan data understates independents.Spirits and whiskeyMGP Q3 down on elevated barrel inventories; industry whiskey production cut sharply.SipSource outlook: spirits –~4% per quarter into 2026; tequila least bad, Cognac/brandy lag.Whiskey barbell: entry level soft, premium more resilient; flavored whiskey, rye, single-malt pockets of growth.Innovation and portfolioNew-item dollars –21.6% YTD; SKUs –41% vs 2023. Fewer, smaller hits.Supplier moves: Molson Coors impairment and reset; AB InBev execution + $6B buyback + Netflix tie-up.Policy and tradeTTB shutdown halts labels/permits/formulas; expect bottling and launch delays.SCOTUS tariff case keeps import pricing volatile into 2026.Hemp beverages: split between prohibition vs regulation; push for parity frameworks.Whiskey trade asks: zero-for-zero tariffs, fix Canada provincial impacts.Route-to-market and operationsSouthern Glazer’s acquires AB’s NYC distribution; faster RTD execution expected.NY stricter DWI law; Hooters founders reacquire brand; speed-serve “Green Tea Shots” partnership.Grocery steady in Southeast; value channels cautious; watch SNAP and holiday elasticity.Supply correctionCalifornia vineyard removals ~7%; further right-sizing likely.Record KY barrel stocks; selected capacity and labor reductions in whiskey supply chain.Action itemsTighten code and inventory, bias to proven RTDs and value-leaning light lagers.Hedge tariff/TTB timing in Q4 plans; build alt scenarios for imported pricing.Prune low-repeat innovation; double down on formats with velocity in independents and on-premise.