Weekly Commodity Podcast by Ravindra Rao | 20th Nov 2023

Commodity Market Analysis and Outlook - 20th November - 24th November, 20231. Investors found relief last week as the latest data indicated a gradual slowdown in the US economy, fueling hopes of a Fed pivot.2. The US CPI data for October revealed a decrease in the headline inflation and the core CPI. Following the soft CPI figures, Fed swaps indicated almost zero odds of another hike, with the market pricing in a 50 basis-point rate cut by July.3. US weekly jobless claims rose to the highest in nearly three months, suggesting signs of a softening labor market and easing economic momentum, aligning with the Fed’s recent warnings of a slowing economy.4. COMEX Gold prices recorded the first weekly gain in three, while Silver rallied more than 6.5% in the previous week as Bleak economic data from the US fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign has concluded.5. Signs of a Fed pivot amid a slowing US economy and easing price pressures might keep gold and silver prices buoyed.6. WTI Crude oil slipped to a four-month low of $72.16/bbl before recovering and ending the week near $76/bbl. WTI Crude might trade range bound for the week provided the 200 SMA resistance near $76.50 holds on weekly closing basis7. LME base metals started the week positively due to a weaker dollar and the largest cash injection from PBoC in nearly seven years. However, metals closed mixed as the latest economic indicators from China dampened the recovery outlook and hurt demand prospects.8. A bullish engulfing confirmation with a weekly close above 715 in MCX Copper might give a strong push higher to the metal.9. Looking ahead to the coming week, the FOMC meeting minutes and Flash PMIs from Western economies will be in focus.#commodities #kotaksecurities #commoditymarkets #commoditytrading #investment #interestrates #stockmarket