Weekly Commodity Podcast by Ravindra Rao | 4th Dec 2023

Commodity Market Analysis and Outlook - 04th December - 8th December, 20231. Mixed Signals in the US Economy has Sparked Speculation on Rate Cuts and this has Impacted Global Markets2. Earlier in the week, the dollar slipped to a four-month low of 102.6 as two of the most hawkish Fed officials signalled a possible pause in rate hikes, reinforcing the belief that the current cycle may be completed3. The greenback rebounded to 103.59 by month-end, erasing weekly losses but still closed November with a notable 3% decline, marking its largest monthly drop in 20234. COMEX Gold prices experienced a notable surge, reaching a six-month peak at $2073.2 per troy ounce during the previous week, closely approaching the all-time high of $2089.2 achieved during the pandemic. This upward momentum was driven by a simultaneous decline in treasury yields and the dollar index5. Silver mirrored gold's performance, recording a gain of over 5% for the week6. Market dynamics are influenced by the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2024, further enhancing the appeal of gold and silver7. WTI Crude closed the week around 1% lower near $74/bbl amid scepticism and confusion surrounding OPEC+'s announcement of approximately 900,000 barrels a day in fresh output cuts from January8. Market sentiments suggest concerns about the cartel's output being sufficient for a slowing global economy, contributing to the decline in crude oil prices9. In the industrial metals sector, except for copper, prices closed lower due to a rebound in the dollar and mixed PMI figures from China10. Notably, a bullish engulf pattern in MCX Copper futures contracts for December delivery has been confirmed, with bulls eyeing the next resistance near 74211. Looking ahead , the US ISM Services PMI and jobs data in the week may test market nerves, with the potential for unexpected resilience to prompt traders to recalibrate their rate expectations