"We’ll Try to Become the First AI-Native Oil and Gas Company" – Karl Hersvik, Aker BP

Today we were delighted to host Karl Hersvik, CEO of Aker BP, in our offices in Houston. Karl has served as CEO since 2014 and has overseen a period of significant growth and transformation at Aker BP. We were thrilled to hear Karl’s insights on operational excellence, artificial intelligence, data architecture, and the future of oil and gas. As you’ll hear, Aker BP has built a differentiated operating model centered on productivity, long-term alliance partnerships, and technology deployment. In our conversation, Karl shares how Aker BP has achieved industry-leading operational performance through a relentless focus on continuous improvement, standardized workflows, and deep collaboration with key service providers. He explains why the company believes data should be treated as a strategic asset and how years of investment in data infrastructure have positioned Aker BP to become what he calls the industry's first "AI-native" oil and gas company. We discuss how AI and agentic workflows are already accelerating engineering, operations, and exploration workflows across the company, enabling faster decision-making, improved productivity, and more efficient capital deployment. Karl introduces the concept of “vibe engineering,” the idea that engineering expertise can be codified into AI agents that perform work in parallel, allowing humans to focus more on training, oversight, and optimization. He argues that this shift has the potential to dramatically compress development timelines and fundamentally reshape how oil and gas projects are executed. Karl provides a fascinating perspective on the future of the energy industry, arguing that AI will create a new generation of winners and losers, while increasing the importance of focus, culture, and organizational adaptability. He also shares his views on energy security, the evolving role of Norwegian oil and gas in Europe, and why resilience, not prediction, will be the defining competitive advantage in an increasingly volatile world. We greatly enjoyed the conversation. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the Iran war has entered its fifteenth week, with markets still largely trading around developments tied to the conflict. He emphasized that this week will be different, as both institutional and retail equity investors shift their attention to the upcoming SpaceX IPO—pricing Thursday. On the oil front, WTI is currently trading at ~$89/bbl, down ~$2 from last week’s close. He credited the Trump Administration with effectively maintaining a market narrative that a broader Iran resolution is imminent, which has helped keep WTI range-bound between $85 and $105/bbl. However, he cautioned that this narrative may begin to lose traction as markets head into the peak summer demand season. He also noted a gradual shift in oil strategist discussions toward the post-war landscape, particularly around how quickly shut-in production could return to pre-conflict levels. Turning to equities, he pointed out that the S&P 500 is modestly higher this week following a ~1.5% pullback last week, which ended a nine-week winning streak. He noted early signs of strain in the AI trade, as several semiconductor stocks experienced sharp corrections, prompting a rotation into more defensive sectors. He ended by highlighting that Equinor ASA will host its Capital Markets Day next week, marking the 25th anniversary of its listing on both the Oslo and New York Stock Exchanges. Arjun Murti expanded on the Strait of Hormuz discussion by emphasizing that while no one knows exactly how the situation will unfold, current market stability is being supported by inventory draws, SPR releases, and lower Chinese imports, none of which are sustainable indefinitely. He cautioned that a prolonged disruption would ultimately risk a global recession by forcing significant demand destruction, reinforcing the need for a peaceful resolution and a rapid return of shut-in production. More broadly, he reiterated his "Geopolitical Super Vol" thesis, arguing that companies should stop planning around a single oil price outlook and instead prepare for a wide range of outcomes, from deep downturns to periods of $100+ oil. In his view, the winners will be businesses that can remain profitable through volatility, strengthen their balance sheets during periods of strong cash flow, and capitalize on opportunities when competitors are reluctant to invest.