The underdog is howling This is Stanford Steve and the bear. Oh, yes a home team getting points. What's better than that? Well, it's here it's week 11 plenty to get to I got a million games to get to I got a lot of picks I feel like John Murray from Westgate will join us to talk about I'm gonna ask him if Clemson is favored in how many teams Are they favored against in that top four so we'll do that and plenty more?
But we've had it circled for a while because of one certain game, but there's another game that will follow you the bear Right on ESPN right noon from Minneapolis Or is that ABC that's ABC. Okay. Well, we'll still be getting a lot of look I see yes, we're exactly Music playing and showing We got a ton of warm-ups and stuff planned from my many like that states road better in their home uniforms I like the blue you know tops better like that I like the Texas all-white for some reason, but I like the Penn State blue Okay, it's a good little contrast with the white helmet as well I speak a classic uniform so about the canes go back to the classic orange pants last week for a little win Oh orange top white pants white top all it is right Easy easy equation for a victory. I'm just bum that Penn State Minnesota game is in prime time You want to be there damn right?
I want to be there. Oh, it's too bad. Where are you going? We got a good game Saturday round time.
Yeah, nice And he stayed off the 40 point loss whatever it wasn't wait for us last week with more injuries Yep against a pissed off Clemson team that saw themselves fit in the first edition of all play rankings I'll speak in those rankings and speaking of that coach who is that coach? Sat there and just laugh for about 10 minutes and you couldn't be more perfect for them It didn't matter where they were third for it. They control their destiny. No, but the fact that they just the perceived slight of where they are It's he's ecstatic.
I was running around Mass Square Garden trying to wrangle guests for a van Pelt last night So I didn't see how nice of you. Thanks. So all your guys down there But I wasn't sure how they reveal four three two one. They reveal they revealed six and five first okay All right, so anyway, this is just a couple minutes here about this.
Okay when I saw him I'm like, huh, okay Penn State ahead of Clemson because of resume, right? So then I was expecting to see as I move up I was like to see LSU one right because that and then I was like, okay So now I'm talking Reese and then he was like how state has what strength of record or strike the schedule? They have their highest power rating team. Uh-huh.
They have their I believe the first and off of offensive efficiency and second to defensive efficiency. They're number one in game control Unless you think about one in strength, okay, what about strength is schedule? They have the best strength of schedule of any of those teams. Oh, yes, that's what it is.
Okay, that's what it is All right, it's not number one, but it's the best of amongst the cluster of teams that we're looking at on the undefeateds They have the best SOS and it's just one of those things like I lost track of Cincinnati hasn't lost since they played them, right? Indiana's 72 I Played a form in the room. I said you got to hear this lasted two seconds First of all I didn't think you could tell your tone and second of all he just doesn't like when other people sing So I play that whenever I get mad at it's good I know he actually sent down in the he sent me a text late Saturday night saying Congratulations on too late and I didn't see any of the game because I explained what happened It's like is that two and all you are against him. I think so Okay, at least I got one of those because I had you all monorublow 21 21 3 out of the gate I'm like this is great.
I'm sure you had a comment about that game. Of course. He did like come on What's wrong? Like a game like a game?
See you all man row. I tell John that one too. I was watching that one That's all right. That's not gonna end more walks and then I of course I heard from the head coach UCLA rather quickly That was another thing to why you why this is why your Colorado type game 17 nothing down you get 17 17 got the ball first and go look at very liminal It's gonna be 17 10 missed 27 yard field goal that he Montes turns the ball over get it down there again It is what it is I hope Colorado plays that bad again for one more time this week is the cardinal role in the bull Well, that gives you my first would you rather of the week whoa?
Yes, we table that no, okay, I'll give you a good segue go Would you rather take Colorado plus three at home against Stanford? Yes, or would you rather take USC plus two? Oh absolutely Colorado I have Arizona State Circle love the situation on levels love the situation for her to losses off a buy You know how much he's getting into his players you would say what I mean What do we and and there is an opportunity that if herm pulls the win? Yeah, I want to say up to cuz they're favored.
Huh like a chit seal herm a couple weeks when they go to Oregon You little ladies keep running a couple spots for you There perfect anyway, sorry to rub so back to the rankings I just thought you know obviously everyone wants to talk about Clemson, but they're gonna work their way up I was gonna ask you cuz you know We talked a lot before the season with our you know season when totals Then I was on my site and there was a Clemson wager possibly to win the ACC and you were like no matter what right? Just just lay it. Okay, so we lay it. Yeah, Max We're very interested in the ACC this year But I will how much money could you have taken from people if you said the first rankings?
I'm saying it's not gonna be in it They were in the rankings in the top four for I think it's 25 straight weeks or 24 straight weeks They've been in the top four ranking this year's but I know everybody wants the games and into moments nonstop all the time But I just think it's been great because everyone thought it was gonna be Alabama Clemson I said no, it's not before the season I just felt like there were teams or too much town which is good could be Georgia, but fields that factored of the word thing I worry about Ohio State is nobody behind him I still worry about that with Ohio State because he's kind of a big deal behind us that but I look at that We mentioned Dabbel, but the other guy is PJ Fluck and that gets us to these two games this week You mentioned you want to be there? It's prime time. I have 16 games. I want to get to this week Okay, I've talked about this schedule this year.
How much nothing sticks out. I have 16 that stick out either like him or I need to ask you about him So let's start right there with Minnesota and Penn State. It's up to seven. Okay.
I think Penn State's I understand I went to Iowa and everybody talked about this stretch before the year What was it at Iowa home from Michigan home for Sparty right or no at Sparty? Then a bi week and now here it is 8 and 0 and 8 and all right, correct They're gonna get the kitchen sink thrown out of by Minnesota I know I was the you know night game Canic everybody talks about that but this is as crazy as a home game Penn State can run into this year And I worry about all the people I haven't heard one person say they like Minnesota and now that it's seven I want you just buy it to seven and a half and take the gophers You could I would lean towards taking the gophers points point like I Penn State is well aware because I was talking to somebody at Penn State yesterday and we're talking about like I received this I received pretty good there like I don't think it's gonna be like as easy as most people think and their response was Or don't worry, we don't think it's gonna be easy either because they're like not only do they have the good receivers They have a massive offensive line and they got experienced deep running backs This ain't gonna be easy at all so that this is not like looking ahead to they didn't care where they were ranked I'm sure last night. No, I can say you should be able to run these two lost teams ranked at them And by the way, it's five two lost teams Florida, Auburn, Wisconsin, Michigan, six Notre Dame and Kansas State And the interesting thing is remember that starting the year I was president of State, Cuddle lost, South Dakota State, Cuddle lost Georgia Southern, Cuddle lost like yeah, their schedule in big 10 play hasn't been great And they played all those backup quarterbacks in a row. We certainly have helped their numbers But they have bludgeon people in big 10 play.
I have it here last four Illinois Nebraska Rutgers, Maryland I'm betting they know first time this is 41 those four games 168 to 41 no more than 17 points or less They've given up in the last four games. The question that comes up in this game is the gophers run for over a 200 40 yards a game Penn State allows 1.9 per carry. Yeah, that includes my second inch too. Yeah, that travels that travels I'll give you that I also thought I was a pretty good dig by Franklin towards hardball saying this is the best wide receivers As is it frankly always says is it incorrect?
Are you 100% certain that that's not true? It sounds like he is I'm not taking Michigan's guys over Minnesota's just the collection of right all right First time since 1968 that a rank Minnesota team is hosted a top five team and first holds the coach then well not in 1968 But he was the head coach in 85 the last time a rank Minnesota team hosted a top 10 team In 80,000. No, they lost close game to last state. Oh, and then it's the other first time since 1961 that a rank Minnesota team Is hosted a top 10 team in the month of November coach holds not the coach then okay?
I heard the guys off our guys in the desert talking this morning Mikey pom and Paul they like the under 47 and a half well that's a good Angle I think because yeah, I mean Penn State went on the road and put up a bunch of points against Maryland And then they got 28 against Michigan State, but I think this game is gonna be a lot more like Iowa type off Feeling they're gonna they're gonna kind of get a little conservative here on the road I don't know that but I can see that happening in that type of environment with the respect that they have for Minnesota I can see them kind of playing a little bit closer to the vest and working through their up We're working through their backs and trying to keep Minnesota off the field because I mean the gophers that they're that concerned about the offensive line Overwhelming them and wearing them down your best defense is offensive. Keep them off the field. All right one last thing on this game I'm really interested to see what Franklin does. You know in game.
I'm not sure recruiting You can't argue with what he's done I think fleck is has the advantage in game coaching here and I expect shots to be taken down the field by both these guys I think Franklin has to do it. He's seen you mentioned you just talked about it You can't play like that all the time and then continue to lose now. I know they beat Iowa, but I mean Get the teams off your back. You play so much better when your defense is able third and long you have a lead Guess what you guys want to do go get the quarterback What what else do I think a little things like that?
I just feel like they're gonna play into it I I don't know if I like that under like I said I would take Minnesota So plus seven and a half. I would agree plus minutes So plus the seven would be the way I would lean in this game don't know if I put that in the car But if I can't see myself laying it with Penn State, okay We would be the way I would but again, they did that early against Michigan. Yeah, got up in and got super conservative Yeah, it's like how long did they ran a kickoff back and got called back right now? That was a play By the way, only team nationally top 10 efficiency wise offense defense and special teams and state Bingo.
Look at you. You got your homework done early this week Yeah, I got homework, but I don't have like a ton of where's dinner in tascoosa Friday night I would imagine this will probably be the usual Receive the phone and no no no no probably five on Thursday chucks on on Friday or vice versa It'll be it'll be that that'll be it all right speaking of it's the game We all the way for chucks has a nice upstairs maybe chucks on Thursday because they have the uh TV's The TV's upstairs in that private room with multiple games up there. Go say I trip at industry for me I don't know I don't know if I'm gonna make it to industry with this. No, it's well, especially not because we're not gonna be there Saturday We're leaving that's true good point.
Well when you're out late night I'll be I mean it's got me in it's good many times. Oh, what's up again? Um LSU at Bama. It's six and a half Caesar says that's what I wrote down here 65 Are we really gonna act like two of my not play?
I'm not yeah I'm not and that line is not acting like he's not gonna play either if they were really a question they would be off the board Do you know anyone that's? Talked about how much they've talked about they like Bama. I can't take it. No one Was it was like what I said on the on-game day last week when I asked the guys like if you heard the following George's muttered all week long.
I like Georgia. No one and With that being said, I think it does help LSU that they're on the road in this game. Absolutely. Okay.
We agree there I like that when I look at the game It's crazy how light in the butt both these defenses are up front compared to all the game LSU Bama games that I've been to starting back I went to I said had a good run. I think about seven in a row with next first game back in Baton Rouge Awesome Was we need 30 on that oh seven was a great year Was the one all three teams into big 12 had a shot. Yes, okay, and then up being a T-bone Bradford, right? Correct.
Yeah, even though it should be Texas Correct Google if you can't remember what happened. Here's what I'll say about this I think Bama is gonna try and run the football More than LSU on purpose to try and keep nine for LSU off the field with her with that being said I know everyone's not starting by it's not gonna be a nine six game. I get that I just I don't see both teams scoring in the 40s. I don't either I really don't With the with the lack of what they've previously had talent wise on the back end for both these teams Stingley's gonna be an all-timer, but there's also got Stevens number three.
I'm not sure about him in space Um, you know the other side of the field the health. I mean they haven't had it feels like all the time They lost the vanity obviously yeah, don't but you'll be okay. Yeah, I mean all signs point that he's gonna be you know Whatever you want to say about how the defenses aren't the same. They're still this is still the best defense that bamice played right?
So I think the advantage there is They they know what they want to do against it All right, but LSU is still I mean effort alone and what in being being over the head with bamice as much as they have They're gonna get their a plus effort. I just think bama is gonna be able to control thing the crowd It keeps you keep them off the field and then that crowd even gets more ramped up if LSU has less chances to have the ball So I could see that happening if I will had to take the game. I would probably take the under oh, I would too I don't even know if both teams get into the 30s. You said 40s.
I definitely both teams get in the 40s I don't even think both teams getting really don't really okay. I have to see I keep thinking like 31 Feels like a very okay, I profile but what will you take in your like your office pools like LSU I will take Alabama enough you know how I think and right or wrong yell at me I'm not I'm not taking the the underdog that the entire world the underdog is howling and they could win the game out right? Maybe they are absolutely, but but you hit on something right away at like the fact they have played Alabama much tougher in baton Rouge it seems When I think when their last year was whatever was the 10 nothing game you never really felt like LSU was gonna be able to score That the McCarron had that great comeback and what was that 12 following year? That was the best game ever But but you never you never really The other instances, but yeah It's not often that Nick Saban gets an opportunity to like kind of go into a game where people are like questioning or assuming that They don't have the talent to win a game and all I know that they've lost home games in the past whether it was LSU whether it was A&M whether it was full miss You know by the way years that they came back to win the national title Um, but for me it will be under in order of preference It would be under and then Alabama might as they the key's gonna be and we'll talk to John Murray about this Hopefully yes later on like I would love to know like Are they gonna move this number at all if they could keep this number it's six and a half That tells me that they are quite content with their liability on just having more LSU money come in and in Because if they can't move it to seven because then you're just gonna get more Else you money But if they move it to six then that'll be interesting to see if they really wants an Alabama money But they keep it up at six and a half and just come on come on down a bit I'll see plus six and a half that's that's a telling my mind.
All right. Um, I'm gonna ban my first half Probably four Well, if it's six and a half probably by by the way at what point at what point in the game This LSU surpassed their point total in the last three years against Alabama 10 points last three years against Alabama not last four years 26 Last five years 39 Five years 39 points different all different offense. So I'm just curious. Yeah, this offense was met in burger I was at that game.
They made a mockery. You know that was less and you got A lot of scrimmage in room. They had that work for for net feet ever actually no 18 carries 22 yards. All right, that's uh, we'll count that as two games down too big I still have 14 more to get here.
Um, but first a word from bear about all state Stanford Stephen the bearer brought to you by all state because mayhem on Saturdays in the fall is inevitable Mayham happens on the field off the field and in the polls mayham lives on in the wind in the rain on the foot of an air and kick and during a Tracking you'll find mayhem in the parking lot during tailgates charcoal That's not totally out an errant football through a window a flat tire a lost side view mirror and on and on Allstate protects you from mayhem in the parking lot and outside at home and away You can't stop mayhem from happening but you can get better protected from it with all state The potential for mayhem during the playoff race is rampant underdogs trap games unexpected weather get better protected from mayhem with all state Contact a local all state agent today. All right. We got the bigger games out of the way I still have plenty to get to here that I mean, there's just stuff that stuck out I talked about the schedule all year in certain weeks in the past couple weeks It just didn't feel right. Uh, we're able to claw out still over 500 I will take that with what I've seen on schedule here Really in the column I think I'm dead.
I have 22 20 and one which is for five over. We got the five over last year Started oh, it's like dead even at the board. I'm 17 12 and one which is still not that we're keeping track Not that you guys like to keep track that are listening out there. All right.
I have a bunch I told you I have a million games here. We met you dabbo and clemson Clemson's 31 and a half against nc state the over-under 53 and a half I kind of lean the 53 and a half over but do you believe in extra motivation? Do you like do you think practice is different today with dabbo? No because they're ranking practice is absolutely the same There might be a few motivational messages or press clippings or they might post them in the weight room with the strength coach in the locker, but practically it they deep down inside He knows he's the same spot that he would have been whether they're fourth or fifth But okay, I think psychologically maybe Before the game maybe or maybe Friday night or Saturday morning Maybe he just kind of reminds people where they are and but in terms of the lead up for the game in terms of game plan I don't think it matters.
Okay Do you think if you're the interim head coach of the Seminoles that you should have a conversation to your team about the red band Antigame and after playing in it because this is the red band Antigame First time it's not an I can think they play the red band down again what they're a couple years ago Absolutely destroyed on a Thursday or Friday night. Yep. They did so I think there's so much going on at Florida State right now. I don't even know why that would would that really We would that affect them?
I don't All right I just like this has all the likings of like that noon game where you think the road team comes out a little fuzzy might be a little chilly air Oh, and listen, hold on. Hold on. Hold on. I'm gonna say it, aren't you?
No, I just I feel like Florida State's gonna line up being like and then their BC is gonna run out and they're gonna be like Why the hell are these dudes all jacked up to play against us? Like you have to approach that with your team because BC is gonna come out like madmen. You know that Um now that being said they play at a crazy pace like I've never seen BC the backup quarterback starting to score If you're the Florida State head coach, you got to figure let's uh, let's get let's get the team camaraderie, right? Let's start leaning around.
Let's try and score some points as much as possible. Kendall, you take the offense and let's go The over under 62 and a half. I can't believe I was saying this but like the over has been it feels like it's the right call on a Boston college game this year It does and this actually leads me to my second. Would you rather With two dumpster fires.
Yep. Would you rather take Florida State plus two and a half? Or would you rather lay two with Northwestern? Oh, I have Northwestern.
I would you rather for you. Okay, that's okay I think I'd rather give two with North Western The team that hasn't squared what it's north of 40 drives now. I know that I See I I I can't imagine that I'm saying reduce giving I mean, North Western's giving points this week in Michigan States given 15 Yeah Against against the suddenly full of life a line. I good for them I can't believe they didn't let the walk on punching in there.
That was that was one for our underbod State University, New Jersey boat up there on the goal pride. It's a guy. Wait, right? No, we are we are not gonna lose by 40 again Um, we've been I actually kind of like Florida State here.
You do. Okay. I do I could totally see that That's why I'm like I just don't understand. I think the overs are playing.
I can't get there The crowd kicked out of him last week by Miami being called out. Like coaching change I think I think they now that they're they'll track record of them not showing up at BC Yeah, and that would concern me some but I had to play the game I play Florida State here a lot of people are mad because this isn't near nine the closest game to 9-11 And Boston College there because it always bad as men. You know obviously most rather the red bandana and that whole thing And you know who it would have been if it was right around the 9-11 game. Yeah, so uh, it feels like there might be a little karma there Some people are talking about that online, but um, it's an interesting spot for Florida State.
No doubt I will say this and this is what was puzzling Last week. I had Miami. I watch that game It's 17 10 and Florida State's getting the ball and the place is going crazy It's the most people they had in the game and then Miami's D just took over So was freaking awesome. I'm really cool But like that was a game late in the third quarter was and two shots down the field by Miami are the difference in that game I'm sorry to say that and I guess we're safe.
You were happy now. Whatever. All right. I did Yeah, that's gonna be plenty more on that Exactly.
I don't even need to go down that road right now. All right Thursday night USF's at home. They burned us a couple weeks ago. I can't first off ECU I still haven't watched it.
I still won't watch it. You and I were texting about it. I watched it I know you said you bring my time to watch it. I text you what was going on As soon as I said I will wait for the fight and you were like I'm not watching it.
I'm not yeah It was painful. All right with that being said they lost it. The USF couple weeks go to which could have helped us out a lot Yes, is the USF good I like us you do home dog Thursday night getting one and a half the numbers the numbers suggest That the wrong team is favored in this game too. Wow.
Okay. Even though temple has that winning its Memphis Now everyone says shouldn't happen. All right. All right.
Amazing. All it works. Yeah. The referees cost Memphis a shot off But yeah, our power rating actually have used us F favorite in this game.
Wow and give them credit for turning the year really char Absolutely look like they were going in the next guy fire. We can say he might not make it look like he might not make it October here's one thing I will say about us F okay. I kind of want them to win this game Because that means they might get more benefited out against the spread against these teams coming up This is how they end the year versus temple Thursday night versus Cincinnati versus Memphis at UCF So just keep that in back your mind while you're watching us F tomorrow night, but temple there there's jekyll's high It's almost different came away from home too. All right.
Another one. Sorry. I'm gonna keep going. Okay It's interesting you start talking about the games that we've both liked here we go and there's a game I think you like just because of the number hook a minus seven I don't like the game at all I could If I had to play the team if I had to just with what Kansas state did two weeks ago beat in Oklahoma And you come back and you beat you beat the crap out of Kansas again for the 18th straight year Whatever what now you're going on the road against a team that Dropped a couple in a row.
Oh, no drop the old you game barely beat Kansas You lose a TCU off week now you're huh if I had to play this game I would play Texas It's not one that I love but but I don't like the spot for Kansas state here at all even though I mean I mean gosh get them give them credit to them. They put together a nice little season heck yeah heck yeah Who is awesome and I had him I had him I did their I did their numbers everything Yeah, it was five I think or five and a half five and a half And I looked it was this stretch right here And I didn't know what they were gonna be against Oklahoma Kansas and then like you know You were gonna get the Kansas but like how effective was that game against Oklahoma gonna be and it's crazy But anybody that can't stay over I love it and you had two toss up games or two games You probably would have thought would have been lost with the Mississippi State in the Baylor game Yep, like man good for that. Um, I with this going up though I almost Texas is getting guys back on defense. So there is that this is I'm gonna it's it Oh, man If I had to take in my pool, I would probably take Kansas State and I was seven I mean it touched on a lot Texas D It's a huge spot for them because Kansas State is pretty versatile and offensive They are they do a great job with the run action and we know how to just Texas has a tendency to not tackle very well Um, all right good to get your thoughts on that Uh, the game I thought would be the the sleeper best game biggest game of the big 12 season Is here but it's not the biggest game in the big 12 No, it's not and that's the clones who are now plus 14 and a half at OU I kind of like them too.
Oh, uh, I would say yeah now that's 14 and a half They do a great job of 15 a couple spots. I think too as well right now. Yeah, whoa 68 I don't think they can want to shoot out Can they keep on Oklahoma under 30? No, I don't think 30 I think I can keep under 40 38 31 still And 440 40 40 48 28 40 28 is And big spot for Oklahoma because we just talk about Kansas State beats Texas Then why is that a bad loss by Oklahoma?
What how many points Can Oklahoma can Oklahoma keep Iowa State under 30 Maybe uh, I'm happy a little high. Okay, but I could see I 24 I think in my handicap of the game. I think you've got to assume that Iowa State scores at least 24 31 24 That's an Iowa State cover 34 24 is a cover 38 24 is a cover. Yeah.
All right. I mean they they've interesting game I think perry is gonna give them problems. Okay. I mean they you get a game for that Oklahoma DC Yeah, they love they they fell behind Oklahoma State and then the pick six and gosh they they're They just now I don't have trouble winning close games.
Yeah, as much as I love Matt Campbell Never seem to find himself on the right side of our with that Iowa game Um Do you think Oklahoma has a better chance to lose this week or next week because I'm gonna get better? Thanks. I wrote it down You want to use it? Is that right?
I might yeah, I might steal that from you. All right. Um What time is this? I think eight o'clock Fox.
Oh, this is after I think they have a better chance of losing this week. Whoa I take I take I can be get wrong. I like lamb, but I think they lose both But again, I know Baylor won the game against Iowa State I think Iowa State presents more challenges to them offensively than Baylor does Now that being said Baylor can't play worse than they did last week. Correct.
I got Totally wrong. Which is great for Baylor going into this week. Yes. We will get to that game.
We will get to that game It's definitely circle. I just have a couple. Would you rather? Yeah, would you rather be Kenny Wheaton?
Unbelievable. Those are the real ducks. Absolutely lemonheads. Yep.
Would you rather give it? There's a rear of a college football 150 thing going on right now with with rather recently Marty Smith tape and stuff He's film taking selfies and LSU. We got it all here on the teamies. Would you rather Would you florida was on from last week gives two and a half with Northwestern No, I guess are you sure against perdough or would you rather give one and a half with the razorbacks against Western Kentucky?
I would rather give one and a half with Arkansas. Wow. Yes Holy moly. Yes, I would because I think I think I think Western now They've lost three of the five games they played against group of five teams at the shred Mars And in the old you'll smart.
He's winning early this year in one too, but man at least perdue is showing fight. There's not another quarterback I mean, how many I want some point. I mean people want to keep banging on all these coaches that lose quarterbacks and injuries and all like what? I mean, what do you want the guys to do?
Yeah, it's ridiculous. Uh boy. The brass kind of made a mockery at the end of that game last week. I'm on the road was just an automatic.
Yeah, it's incredible. I I'd lay the one and half of Arkansas. All right, because my next question was like all time Like are these as bad as those bad Vandy teams this are there all team who wasn't that that that's that tweeted out the note Was it was Paul Marburg? Maybe it might have been him about like Arkansas having like two 17 game SEC losing streaks like It was like summer like just Yeah, they're they're not very good.
All right. We gotta pick up the pace here. Sorry. Yeah, we do Uh as you I kind of like that spot even though the line has flipped.
That's the one thing that keeps me off I love the move across zero. You know that when you go back the other way Um, so I just USC like is it finally is a tipping point? Correct. You know all the talk every week and it's not their fault.
They played their butts off Gran into a buzz ball last week that game turned off in a freaking instant before that unbelievable Um I also don't understand why you saw states only getting six from Fresno Uh, I think you saw state is one of the biggest disappointments in the country I was one of the biggest question going into the year We knew they had love and we were back with the new coaching staff and everybody else gone and I talked about it with uh, Mel before the year he compared it to josh alan at yomi when he lost all his wide receivers Uh before the year his senior year. So, um, all right. I think we're to the picks part here. Uh, do you want to go first?
Or do you do any more questions? I have one more. Would you rather? I don't what do we got?
Would you rather take the 35 with ucon or would you rather take the 43 with maryland? I'd rather take the 43 with maryland. Okay. We talk about it.
You talk about it a weird game last week. Maryland? Yeah, but actually very easily could have covered that number. Hey, it gives me I need one more And pauli, I know you're listening.
I need to get one this week. No, I'm not gonna get this week. What do they have left? We got sparti where I think that's party.
We have home, nebrasca Absolutely can win that game coming that game. So I'm not even looking at those are the two answers. Okay, the other ones are not good I will I think or um, whatever. All right.
And then here's the other one Which game goes over? I think Cincinnati after playing so poorly last week. I think they'll shut down under offense I would I agree, you know, but you can't see this so thanks a lot. Did you see bad beats?
I did that was awesome How about you? That was awesome. That's a freaking disaster We were watching that live via paul at both at con it was brutal Friday night here on campus Which game goes over? Would you rather take Iowa, Wisconsin 38 and a half per new northwestern 40 and a half?
Nevada, San Diego State 39 and a half. I always can't all right right knees down the buck not we gotta keep we gotta keep tilies on these You know what was really cool was last weekend tweet sent to me with people writing taking notes during the podcast like all the information stuff I thought it was good. Yeah, I didn't know people write down notes anymore Um, okay. I'm gonna start here.
Uh, one of my picks I'm pretty sure it's gonna be in the column These are uh, I'll feel goods just gotta make a decision about the column tennis. Uh, Tennessee's a pick them at Kentucky over under 42 I'll take a tucky here. Uh, they have something I mean talking about injuries a quarterback You don't hear mark stoops making any Excuses, they just keep coming out. We talked about before the year about how he liked the guys who replaced his NFL guys And he made the point about no one ever talked about josh alan or venny snell when he recruited those guys to come there So the villains have have really stepped up.
I just feel like this is their super bowl still because it's Tennessee They're coming to laxington, tennesees give them credit They've gotten up off the deck and played a lot harder a lot better But I just feel like katucky has the has the grips and has they can put the stranglehold on them and make them one-dimensional The crowd will be uh crazy. You know that so I I mean if it opened katucky at three and now it's a pick them The line's going in my favor here mark stoops Even more so has to win this game knowing that all his name is in this floor to state stuff So this would be a bad look for him if they don't win this game So I factor that in tucky just having that want to and I be like they're just tougher than tennesee Um, so I'll take it tucky on saturday one game that i'm not speaking of poly I can't decide if i'm gonna put this in the column yet or not okay because i'm already i'm kind of pocket mated with the uab Under eight and a half wings Not dead yet mr. Howard Underdog this week at southern miss they're right where I thought they would be with two losses right now At southern miss they got north texas on the road and they still have luizianatech Just need to lose two of those three games eight and four tash winner Hopefully so I do like southern miss this week. This number has come down quite a bit I think was better like six like four and a half now I could get behind southern miss on a normal occasion I still might be but being that i'm i'm tied into that season when told i'm kind of looking at That right now we know we know we are really needed for that more than i potentially would this single game No, that's a good way or a bad way of looking at it who knows but i i can get behind southern miss lay in the four and a half this week I really like that jack a rear hand quarterback southern miss tough dude I am looking at Iowa plus nine and a half at wisconsin.
They've been terrible as a dog man horrible rule and special Look at what's constant especially brutal dog on the road. I just I can't some of these things. I've written down. I are incredible But what is what I mean this game is massive for the big 10 way it's basically do or die right because if you're if you're assuming Doublefoot is both teams still playing minnesota.
No, you're good. I'm doing the same thing to you I'm sorry but the things are popping into my head. It's talking but the winner here They both minnesota still plays both of these teams yes and if you assume some people assume minnesota loses this week Which we're not i don't think necessarily sold that that's gonna happen But the massive game still for both teams like does wisconsin still have that mentality of like yeah our national championship and college will play off hopes or Probably gone, but we went out we go back to the big 10 champion game go to rosball Yeah, hopefully that still matters i would think it does i would think it does for those kids i especially think it would absolutely No doubt about it and you know it does trial Absolutely for Iowa. I was off the by i got a feel like i know wisconsin is too and the latin wisconsin shop You know to in a row i just feel like i went in that offense It still goes back to me like they were the right side against michigan i'm gonna go down and flames with that thought even though i lost Oh, they weren't on the field they weren't but they weren't yep, so i mentioned to you You got caught on the public dog i did the only reason to lost that game is ellish you're gonna become a public dog they already are all right There you go people there's more information from your public dog the bear the under you know It's gonna be a public dog this week too and we mentioned them already I'll just say how bad michigan states been offensively and as a touchdown to touch down north it's team that's I think i think it's one seven eight one six or one seven against the number as a 14 plus point favorites and start a lot I was very were saying not very good Uh here's here's a couple things the under is coming in the last four iwa games the unders coming the last five wisconsin games All right, so this is a naturally go over right it feels like that But i think i like wisconsin more and here's another reason why in the last 21 games in madison Three times the badgers have been a single digit favorite.
They've covered all three easily. It's nine and a half All right, i'm leaning wisconsin i think they get it back i think there's something to that That's um Wisconsin destroyed them the last time they came to madison and the world they held iowa to one yard of kerry I will point out illinois ran for 141 oh house date ran for 264 on wisconsin But by week they were just caught i mean wisconsin's not a team that's gonna come from behind against Ohio state on the road So i think oh house date got them right where they want but i'm gonna lean wisconsin there uh minus the points I want to play cal plus the seven and a half against wazoo doo doo i mean i they can't score That's the issue you're still not back on is he up for the year garbers is out for the year i'm assuming he's out for the year But i mean i have a ton of respect for for wilcox's head coach absolutely i mean they they did a good job containing worgan for a long Long time in that game I don't know they did this number i don't know that looks like one i could i could potentially look at you could get behind them Like 30 golden bears i could look i could look at maybe taking cal plus the points i mentioned i was stately york Oklahoma yep earlier Let's talk bale i was gonna say that's an interesting game because i do like baylor here um i do too Who knows what the quarterback situation is gonna be like with tcu Dalton kitch transferred uh dogging is hurt that dogging thing just look bad and i don't know what it was Can you dislocate your hand You dislocate your wrist dislocate your finger watch the tape when he goes down his hand is so awkward and it's just throwing hand Like i just don't understand how he plays this week and then i think colins is hurt too So that quarterback situation and i'm in the in the in the tank here for baylor because i still want my money from that awful performance They had thursday night against west virginia first and go on the wall and they didn't score in the second quarter That's good for this week. Yeah, so i'm gonna give it to a baylor And you know what's interesting is like you figure that in the spot kind of counterintuitive that you would think uh Right, you know team laying a short number on a road against an unranked team take the home dog It's actually not the case i went back and look it's the fall of a year Your wisconsin single digit home favorite you go back last 40 years There have been nine teams that were eight you know or better on the road favored by less than a field goal against an unranked team It was 917 2 it's a number wow last being iowa in 2015 remember when they were a short favorite on the road in lincoln 120 a 20 so the historical trend here in this situation with teams that you might not you might think it's smart play to take the Pick the home dog that hasn't worked out that way so far so well, we'll see but i do like baylor here in this guy I can see this one i'm making the column even though this is like those against my ruling Of picking against the team that i picked last week that beat me last week and But like we didn't talk a ton about the rankings how is oklahoma state in the rankings and especially if like if you're supposed to take Injuries into effect like they don't have time in wall is the rest of the year Yeah, and they're right they got but that's you being smarter than the committee I got blitz my baylor on the whole field they no show against texas tech texas they lost dude I don't know I realized it's one pickets once you get to like spot 20 i'm 18 But how would they the three lost in your rank a lot of group of five out there in the bottom Yes, your canes won me some money last week in a spot. I love the underdogs great in that florist at miami game This week they're home for luval and I just don't like the canes here I like luval i talked about satterfield being one of my favorite hires.
I think i feel like i say it every week Maybe i do and you should um They're getting six and a half like it went down a little bit i thought it opened around this number Like five Uh, I like luval here. I just feel like the emotional letdown for miami is a real thing It is a real thing it's a 330 game at hard rock 20,000 maybe let's be honest luval just played a basketball game last night in Miami 450 anything down for them to share They're legit people like luval people like luval a lot and a lot of people are just making a whole week out of it down in south Which is luval home game for both games? I'll take luval's off a buy to you alluded to it like the layover and it's real the last six years for miami Week after florida state one and five against the number four outright losses. Oh give me that one for them call It'll be it'll be it'll be in the bare bites in the column.
Okay. I'll just copy paste it or i'll just say I don't think I don't think i've sent it out yet that usually i send that massive document i get that on friday after 30th or 30th or 30th. Yeah, all right. Uh, anymore for you thought about Duke mentioned florida state already Yep, talked about the big games by the way, I said that that note the other day But i'm just looking at all that mail to you regular season games.
Yep, we're uh Number one has been another dog against number two Number one is one every single time last 40 years every single time number one has been under dog Number two versus number one other You're officially going over to the call for the first up up there. Who's number one bear? I like for the correct team is number one in the college will play for it. I have a couple others I like Boise.
I like boys against mustard. Yes. I just like i don't know what's going on quarterback for them bachamara That can't stay up way too late Saturday night watching Boise and san jose state Yeah, I was that guy should get coach or dear by the way san jose state bren bren Absolutely, they're in bulk consideration absolutely. Absolutely.
I was mad. I was dead tired after said i didn't even turn the T1 after you know another game like sleepy early big favorite off a massive win last week I could think about taking coach columns there on the jacket's getting like 17 at uva It's gotta just an assumption for conclusion that uva will be in the conference championship game But tech is as the year goes on they're gonna continue to play there. I don't know if they win the game outright I kind of feel like that might be too many there for the in the situation for the Cavaliers i don't know what to do because i want to take both but i'm not sure because it feels too easy Armies minus 34 and a half in the over 62 and a half. I like both of those Streams are like a 49 14 game.
I think umass is I mean no I don't think they are they are brutal on defense and after playing a spread offense where they gave up over 500 yards against liberty and he Frees now they gotta play 11 guys in the box and they are he's got to be is are they the most disporting team in the country? I don't know they're You gotta put him in the conversation Washington Washington more so i put washing in it because people expected washington to compete or win the paul title How about the brown to drop three see but what we were expectations for the breast i had to breast like seven and five That's that's that's that's that's how it's disappointing how poor they've looked Yeah, but I think record wise if i was watching it's for losses at this point Three on their own field they weren't able to be Oregon or Utah on their own field blowing leads in both games that that that's a disappointment to me Okay, so i'm not sure what i'm gonna do with that in common but army in the over i mean you just you mass What's no part of this game none they'd rather play north western next week than army so That's a good point. I kind of like the red Hawks a little bit tonight a little midweek matching all right if you're listening before the game plus seven I'd be just some couple of she cleans Akron playing too. That's what I want to know because i'm betting against that Just what do they have to do?
They're off. They're off. Yeah, they gotta be one of those matching games next week night I hope so they got it. I hope so.
Hopefully it's worthy of it. I'm gonna have to look right now at the schedule All right, that's gonna do it for our picks and uh, let's get over to john Murray for some questions about This playoff and what klemson would be favored against the teams in the top four Talked about it earlier in the podcast john Murray from west gate joins us for all things You might know him as the bagel boy from file the money on vson early mornings on thursday after i go on with mitch and paulley But we want to talk about the numbers obviously all the talk of the playoff is klemson outside the top four Uh, jalst not right there where how many let's say how many teams do you have klemson favored against in those top four? Well, we've made klemson's favorite against everybody except for alabama and ohio state I mean they would certainly be favored against penn state. We have them as about a one and a half point favorite against lsu I always enjoy by the way guys when they do the first release of the college football playoff rankings and like everybody melts down and Guess what alabama and els who are playing each other on saturday and ohio state and penn state are playing each other in a couple of weeks So it really doesn't matter it comes and goes undefeated They're gonna get one of those four spots and if they don't go undefeated they don't deserve one of the four spots Anyway, so if you're a concert fan, I don't think you should be melting down over this whole thing Speaking of that you mentioned that if they're not as defeated they don't deserve one of the four spots anyway How would you I want to say put your committee member hat on but vegas?
Odds maker what would you make like alabama lsu ohio state penn state versus like organ or utah This is the scenario I think we're gonna be headed down like the debate between the alabama lsu loser and the penn state ohio state loser Versus a potentially 12 and one organ or utah because I think there are gonna be committee members that say hey They won their conference they're deserving they're one of the best four teams But I don't think there would be any scenarios in there that either organ or or utah will be favored over any those teams would they're big Well, absolutely not no, I mean we got like right now we make alabama 16 and a half versus Oregon 14 and a half versus utah and we got ohio state one point better than alabama so you can do the map on that No, but the pack 12 is not the pack 12 winner might get into the college football playoff And I actually think Oregon you thought I wrote the pack 12 off earlier in the air and I was making jokes about it on the media It's a little better than I thought I think utah especially is better than I thought but they would still be a big underdog if they were to get into one of these semi-final games and play a team like an alabama Or a high-class state or Clemson that they'd be a double-digit underdog against any of these teams Who's the most undervalued team when you look at those rankings is it oklahoma at number nine so you know with that one loss You know, yeah, it's probably it's a good question It's probably oklahoma because their offense is so high-powered so they wouldn't be as big of a dog as as Oregon or utah would be but I also kind of feel like oklahoma's play. It's way out of the college football playoff by losing to Kansas state I mean I know they could still get back in but there's just so many good teams in the SEC I really think it'd be hard for oklahoma to get back into the mix unless they got a ton of luck They get a bunch of these teams to get knocked out here and beat each other up over the next month All right, good. It's good to hear that books makers have uh SEC bias too Best teams in the best conference or actually the teams wow I just how much you mentioned oklahoma and I did to it just how much does this week they're playing Iowa state at home? They're getting 14 and a half how much does this week have an effect on next week when they go to undefeated baylor?
Hopefully on the field baylor I think this is a critical week for oklahoma because not only are they playing Iowa state, but they're doing it Look at the time slot they're playing and they're playing at five pacific our time five Las Vegas time I should say on national tv whereas that alabama lsu game is in the afternoon So everyone's gonna be watching this oklahoma game if they blow Iowa state out of the water They could get back into college football playoff mix if they be baylor I guess they'd have to be baylor twice in theory that got to be again in the big 12 title game Yeah, I mean I think for sure the answer question It'll it'll affect a lot of the line a lot for the tcr for the baylor game and it's the kind of thing It could be a springboard to get them into the college football playoffs mix for sure They're really gonna need to put on a show against a pretty good Iowa state team And we did see sharp money come in on Oklahoma this morning by the way Okay, we moved oklahoma from minus 14 to minus 14 and a half I was initially thinking Iowa state plus the points there was that that's a certainly a interesting thing to file By the way, I'm highly offended that your eyes will be tuned into Iowa state, Oklahoma As opposed to the big one in Raleigh that Kurt Chris Maria I never said I never said I was gonna be watching it I don't know what I'm gonna do on Saturday Speaking of that have you seen any move in the last day or so like since the rankings were announced have people like run to the window and bet Clemson all of a sudden? No, we haven't really seen that. I don't think I mean am I wrong here I don't think people care about the rankings outside of like obviously we all do a ton of media to podcast It's really good. It's really good fodder for the media stuff that we all do like this is good This is a good conversation.
I think it's interesting But I don't think it's something that's really gonna cause people to run up to the window and make a bet No, because these teams are gonna knock each other out anyway and at the end of the day I remember you guys mentioned earlier about SEC bias and people losing their minds over that I remember a few years ago when the rankings came out Alabama and held us here both in the top four and everybody was going nuts about it SEC bias SEC myths and I was like they're playing each other on Saturday and Whoever loses is gonna drop out of the top four and whoever wins will unquestionably deserve to be in the top four so who cares? I don't think people are learning that the first version of the rankings is mostly just for the radio Yeah, and I'm glad you said that you could see when I were having a conversation earlier about I do you think practice is different for Clemson this week or that and that was my reaction? I'm like I don't think they're gonna treat this week anything different just because they're five as opposed to four or three But that the LSU Alabama game I'm just curious with the number at six and a half right now kind of a multi faceted question here like A I guess do you anticipate the game either going to six because I can't imagine it would move to seven B if the game stays at six and a half would that kind of can I read between the lines that you're pretty happy with having a position where you're Gonna need Alabama and see what what what if what type of good what type of money have you seen on the scheme so far? The most we let's you well, you know what's mostly is the under the under has been the really popular side at least that our book We've gone from 65 down to 63.
We had a sharp bet come in earlier this morning under 64 Now as far as the side is concerned most of the money is actually on the dog here most of my son LSU which you're gonna end up with in this game a lot of LSU straight bets a lot of LSU money line bets Alabama is gonna be included in a lot of parlays I do think we'll need Alabama by kickoff But something like that could be swayed a lot by a big bet from a big casino house player for sure But my guess is we'll need Alabama, but we're gonna have money on both sides of this game and as of right now It looks like we need the over everybody's been under but I think they're missing how different these offenses are this year Especially LSU's so different offensively the way they're play calling is so different I can't imagine we're looking at one of these nine to six LSU Alabama games like we've gotten in the past These are very explosive offenses and their defenses aren't quite up to the level they've been the last few years two things I'm gonna so how about are you guys gonna need them and can it get the seven and a half? I don't know about seven and a half and because every time it goes to seven they take it Guys guys are taking seven so sometimes the wise guys will like reject us from moving up to a number Maybe we should get to because they can't help themselves They just take the seven as soon as they see it but right now we got about a seven to one take account on Penn State We're gonna need to go for pretty big in this game. It's gonna be the big bet game early in the morning Saturday 90 I'm here in Vegas. We'll need to go for sure, but seven and a half of the stretch I don't think it'll get there because the sharp guys they won't be able to help themselves when they see that seven All right my last one.
I'm not a power rankings guy I don't know how it's way too much math for me I like to watch the games and try and figure stuff out and lose my money that way So I just have one question because the best thing in the country in my opinion is Ohio State The worst thing in the country in my opinion is Akron if they were gonna play on a neutral site What is the line of that trying to keep thinking how many points I would need with Akron and I can't do it at 70 I think it's 71 70. I think it would be oh my god. It would be like in the It's only so high you can go with these things like if the spread gets too high Basically, you know to play a perfect game to uh to cover the number I would guess it would be like in the mid to high 60s But you know you've got to think Ohio State would call off the dogs at some point of that game I mean urban Myers Urban, I would keep running up the score, but uh, yeah, I don't know that would certainly be what's called mid 60s That feels like a safe area there. Yeah, because I'm pretty sure Akron and score touched down in October So that's just almost a lot of red skins of college I was gonna say I think uh, I think lainey was actually saying like the Rutgers you got Ohio State I think he ran a preliminary thing was like was like 51 or 52 or something like that was what his initial By the way, I told Steve really about my dream or like my one thing I would love to see happen this week was Purdue Heat northwestern out of the end zone and have like northwestern on like a 50 somewhat drive streak offensively I'm not scoring a touchdown and then they play umass next week which would be uh, one of those sadistic type games that I love so we Yeah, you know, we had sharp money coming on the under in that Purdue Northwestern game this morning I remember everybody under 40 and I was like how low can this thing possibly get we're at 38 and a half right now It's just crazy to see that for a college football total and and the college football spread They can only get so high because you've got to think like I know Steve's right that the like the backups are still way better than the starters But at some point they start to just sit on the ball and run the clock out So even even when you talk about getting into the 60s that might be too high because they're not they're even their backups won't even be trying to score So those are the hardest numbers to make and we don't really write a lot of money on those games either I should tell you that guys like the public they don't they don't want to lay 60 points at a football game Why would you want it?
No, they don't they want to lay they want to lay 10 state they want to lay 6 and a half on the road with a much better team That's a great strategy too. Yeah, no, they're like that. They like those they consider it cheap I don't like consider a touchdown on the road a few favorite but the public considers that a cheap favorite And we see these games were like why oh state we have a house eight minus 43 and a half against maryland right now I don't think we're gonna write a lot of money on that game We actually had a wise guy lay 42 in that game you can believe that but I don't think it's gonna be a really heavily big game What what what what other sharp plays have you seen what other like strong public plays have you seen at least for the first three days of the week? Well balers at balers a sharp side.
We had a group like baler I want to see what I have both of us week. That's good. Thank you. Thank you.
That looks like uh that looks for sure to be a sharp side You tap was another one we saw we saw a sharp money coming on you tap They took I think 12 in that game if my memory serves me So it's a few sharp plays but I would say right now baler and Ohio State and the under in the LSU game I mean we saw a sharp group come in and go under that number a little scary with the how powerful those offenses are I should say but That's what it is. That's what they played. All right. Thanks a lot, man.
I appreciate you doing this. Yeah guys anytime. Thanks for And then in a big time steamer condo pick it you can bet your condo long it's bama bear take us away Unless you bet the more you lose when you win