What Falling Bond Yields Say About Recession Odds

With the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high and the ten-year Treasury yield dropping 2.6% in a week, markets are sending two contradictory messages about the economy. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence: stocks are pricing in a goldilocks scenario of steady growth and eventual rate cuts, while bonds are signaling rising recession risk. They examine the recent data—CPI at 4.2%, the Fed stuck at 3.6%, and a jump in job openings to 7.6 million—and ask which market is right. The episode also explores how the yield curve's recent uninversion fits into this picture, and what history says about the odds of a hard landing when stocks and bonds disagree this sharply. #BondMarket #RecessionRisk #S&P500 #TreasuryYield #FedPolicy #Inflation #JOLTS #YieldCurve #StockMarket #Economics #InterestRates #GDP #JobsReport #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroMemo #MarketDivergence Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo