What I Learned from the SMM Metals Conference

Good Evening, I was on the ground at the SMM Asia Metals Seminar in Hong Kong today. Excellent content: deep dives, hard data, and no tourist-level macro. In this short episode, I run through key takeaways from the industrial and new energy metals sessions metal by metal, but first, do consider subscribing to the substack for much more of this. Copper* Global supply growth is flat: top producers (BHP, Codelco, Freeport) have shown zero structural output growth since 2020* Models show upside to >$10,000/ton with base case at ~$9,800* Inventories in China and Europe at multi-year lows, * Long-term capex shortfall of US$150 billion to meet 2035 demand📈 Verdict: Strong long. Best setup in the market.Zinc* Refined market tight through 2025, but surplus expected by 2026* TCs rising; mine supply returning* Chinese refined output up +5.2% YoY, demand growth slowing🧭 Verdict: Tactical only. Fade the strength post-2025.Tin* Global supply thin, highly concentrated (Indonesia, Myanmar)* Inventories low: * Demand anchored in semiconductors, solar, and industrial electronics💡 Verdict: Optionality. Small market, big moves.Nickel* Indonesia to produce >50% of global supply by 2026* LME + SHFE inventory rising; matte and sulphate margins deeply negative* NPI-to-refined conversion loss: ~$900–1,000/t at current tolling fees📉 Verdict: Structurally bearish. Narrative still lags reality.Cobalt* DRC still supplies 98–99% of China’s cobalt imports* ARECOMS export ban triggered +89% spike in Co₃O₄ over 40 days* But global supply rising: expected to grow from 309 kt (2024) to 390 kt (2030E)⚠️ Verdict: Geopolitical squeeze short-term; surplus long-term.Lithium* China carbonate surplus: 5–9 kt/month expected through H1 2026* Inventories elevated: 130,000+ tons in storage across chain* LFP chemistry dominates; NCM market share declining steadily* Cost curve: only Australian spodumene and Chilean brine consistently profitable🪫 Verdict: Still oversupplied. Interesting only at the cost curve bottom.Have a good day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe