What if Tim Duncan left for Orlando?

Gregg Popovich took over the San Antonio Spurs at about this point in the season in 1996, replacing Bob Hill as head coach. The firing was a surprise, many expected Hill ousted after San Antonio’s unappealing playoff exit the spring before, stringing him along for 18 extra (David Robinson-less) games the next season felt a little off. The Spurs lost a lot, drafted Tim Duncan, and 25 years on Popovich is 21 wins away from supplanting Don Nelson (who first dragged Popovich onto an NBA bench) as the NBA’s all-time leader in head coaching wins. Because of the relationship, and a natural unease with self-analysis, Pop’s been succinct. Of course, Duncan came awfully close to leaving the Spurs in 2000 as a free agent, after only three seasons with Popovich. Like, what if? Too often the re-telling of Tim Duncan’s trip to Orlando includes actual magic, landing Duncan on the same team as Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady, but the Magic only had two max salary slots. With Tim in Orlando, McGrady wasn’t taking Duncan’s salary position in San Antonio, not after the greeting Benny the Bull gave T-Mac in Chicago: The Bulls rolled out the red-velvet carpet. They met McGrady at the airport with a three-piece band, the Luvabulls, mascot Benny the Bull and fans chanting, ‘T-Mac!’ They showed him personalized recruiting videos made by Oprah and Jesse Jackson. They imposed on the Cubs to let McGrady and a trailing media horde visit both dugouts before Saturday’s White Sox-Cubs game, throw out the first ball to Sammy Sosa and lead an adoring throng in ‘Take Me Out to the Ball Game.’ With Duncan (and probably Antonio Daniels) out of the picture, the Spurs have space to work with. Does the team punt it, and hope to lure Chris Webber (then working uneasily with Jason Williams and the stuck-at-eighth-seed Kings) as a free agent in 2001? Does it overpay for Austin Croshere, blow the Bucks out of the water for Tim Thomas, or push in on the Brian Grant sweepstakes? San Antonio still signs Derek Anderson to a his two-year, big value, deal. The Spurs drafted Manu Ginobili in 1999 and knew what they had. Wherever Tony Parker was about to land in the 2001 draft, the Spurs were going to deal a slot or two ahead and snap him up. Shake the bedsheet all you want, they’re in the Spurs’ timeline. But no Duncan replacements. The problem is that everyone — Grant, free agent Eddie Jones — wanted to be in Miami, to play along Alonzo Mourning. Florida really had itself a year in 2000. You couldn’t outbid the Heat, only hope to pluck something in a sign-and-trade. San Antonio could slide into the three-team deal moving Brian Grant to Miami, offering the Blazers a sign-and-trade for Antonio Daniels plus Steve Kerr and Terry Porter, returning Greg Anthony and Portland’s pick in the upcoming draft (Zach Randolph). Later, the Heat and Hornets use the Spurs’ space to alleviate luxury tax troubles ahead of the Eddie Jones sign-and-trade. San Antonio would re-sign and deal Samaki Walker to the Hornets (already fielding Elden Campbell and P.J. Brown) in exchange for rookie center Jamaal Magliore and (shock horror) Derrick Coleman, a Charlotte cap millstone who gives San Antonio points and rebounds next to David Robinson until the duo’s giant contracts (nearly $20 million combined) expire in 2003. Grant Hill was on crutches when Tim Duncan chose Orlando, the timeline doesn’t stray and Tim has to do the best he can with centers John Amaechi and Andrew DeClercq. With Mike Miller, Troy Hudson, that whole crew. It isn’t much, and unfortunately for Magic fans, Duncan agreed to the same three-year opt-out with ORL that he actually agreed to in 2000 with San Antonio. The Duncan-less Spurs haven’t signed any cap-cloggers in his absence. Only four rookie deals (Z-Bo, Mags ahead of his All-Star year, Manu, Parker) alongside the usual finds (Bruce Bowen, 2000 camp signee Raja Bell, Stephen Jackson) and holdover Duncan buddy Malik Rose. Room for Tim’s return in 2003, plus another max slot. Draft Tim Duncan. After that, stay alive. ANTONIO MCDYESS STAYS IN PHOENIX Rookies only had three-year contracts back then. By the end of Year Two a stud could make his future free agent ambitions known, it’s why Kevin Garnett signed a $121 million deal before his 121st NBA start, it’s why the Denver Nuggets were convinced they couldn’t afford to re-sign McDyess, the No. 2 pick in the 1995 NBA draft. Denver panicked and dealt McDyess to Phoenix before his third season. The Suns not only had McDyess for a playoff campaign in 1998, but also his Bird Rights ahead of an offseason that would see yer Suns replete with free agent cash. During that offseason, though, McDyess panicked. Nobody expected him to turn down Phoenix’s eventual max offer, but while the Suns were courting Antonio’s future teammates the Nuggies swooped in and glommed a verbal ‘yes’ from the unrestricted free agent. “I didn’t want to sign there,” said McDyess, a forward. “I sort of had an in-between mind at that point.” Problem was, he had given a verbal commitment to the Nuggets, and they had flown him in on the eve of training camp to sign the contract. “When I got to Denver, I just felt like that wasn’t the place for me,” he said. “So I called Jason Kidd (his teammate in Phoenix the previous season) and told him, ‘I don’t know if I want to sign here, man.’ He said, ‘Just stay right there and don’t do nothing you don't want to do. I will be there soon.’” Kidd, along with Suns teammates George McCloud and Rex Chapman, chartered a plane and flew through a blizzard into Denver that night. McCloud and Chapman weren’t even Suns yet, only free agents under Bird rights. McCloud was about to sign for the minimum to accommodate free agents, just as Chapman did in Phoenix the two previous seasons ($574,500 total). Chapman would sign six-year, $22.1 deal with Phoenix eventually, but like McDyess his contract couldn’t become official until the new Suns were acquired. The Nuggets, flush with free hockey tickets, disrupted the plan. “I was at a (Colorado Avalanche) hockey game (in the owner’s suite) and I wasn’t going to sign until they got there,” McDyess said. But McDyess said Dan Issel, Denver’s coach and general manager at the time, knew Kidd’s rescue party was on the way, and instructed security and ticket sellers at McNichols Arena to keep Kidd and company out of the building. “I mean, it was a blizzard outside, and they wouldn't let those guys inside the arena. They kept them out in the snow,” McDyess said. “It was crazy times.” McDyess, true to his character, honored his verbal commitment to the Nuggets and played four more seasons with them. But he’s always regretted the decision he made on that snowy night. Let’s melt some snow. Tom Gugliotta was Phoenix’s consolation prize, instead he heads to Denver as a free agent. McDyess remains in Phoenix, on a verbal guarantee, while the Suns use cap space to lure Vlade Divac. Keeping the team’s 1999 first-round pick, as the Suns don’t need to sign-and-trade for Luc Longley anymore. Too timid to take on Metta World Peace, the Suns draft James Posey and build the two-way banger of Scott Skiles’ dreams. Prior to the draft the Suns also dealt the rights’ to Dallas’ pick (No. 9, originally Shawn Marion) to Chicago in exchange for Brent Barry. Jerry Krause is smitten with Marion but Chicago uses its selection on Corey Maggette. (No, I haven’t already written a Krause-in-’99 fan-fiction called ‘Chin de Siècle.’) Denver loses McDyess but signs Gugliotta to a cheaper rate. The Nuggets had to clear cap room for McDyess’ return but in this scenario gets to keep capable center Dean Garrett and forever Sixth Man candidate Bobby Jackson, along with its own pick in the 1999 draft, which Denver uses on Richard Hamilton. Denver also owns Milwaukee’s first-round pick from the (say it with me) Elliot Perry trade. At No. 18, Dan Issel selects “Ron Artest.” Nick Van Exel, Googs, Metta, Tony Battie, Rip Hamilton, Bobby Jackson, Danny Fortson, Eric Williams and Raef LaF… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tsa.substack.com/subscribe