What it will take for AI to scale (energy, compute, talent)

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ --- In this episode, I look at the next 24 months of AI. The technology is improving rapidly – so what could hold back widespread transformation of how we work and live? I dig into the real constraints, from electricity shortages to institutional inertia, why mid-2026 matters for enterprise AI, and why so many people remain uneasy about a technology they use every day. I cover: (00:03) Predicting AI's next two years (01:50) How life changing are chatbots, really? (03:36) Our current biggest AI constraint (07:58) The remarkable increase in token efficiency (10:43) Why mid-2026 is a crucial turning point (13:01) Do we actually want AI in our lives? (15:28) Should organizations wait to jump in? (16:39) How is OpenAI reckoning with Gemini? (18:41) The market's reaction to OpenAI's code red (19:32) Where will value accrue in the supply chain? (20:51) What's the best strategy for middling powers?Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.