What next for Lebanon if ceasefire with Israel expires on 17 May?

As a fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon approaches its 17 May deadline, uncertainty is mounting over what comes next. Agreed in mid-April and extended to allow negotiations, the truce has been repeatedly violated, with continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks raising fears of renewed war. In this episode of The Brief In, we unpack the competing pressures shaping Lebanon’s next move: US and regional demands for Hezbollah’s disarmament, Israeli insistence on security guarantees, and deep internal divisions in Beirut that have stalled a unified negotiating position. With over a million displaced and parts of southern Lebanon devastated, the stakes are existential. Can diplomacy hold, or is escalation inevitable? And what would the collapse of the ceasefire mean for Lebanon’s sovereignty, economy, and regional position in an already widening Middle East conflict?