What Rising Rates Mean for Housing and Markets

Housing Slowdown, Rate Pressure, and Market Signals: A Turning Point?From Washington, DC to Newport Beach, KP checks in during a week where housing data, mortgage rates, and macro signals are starting to shift the narrative. With rates staying elevated and volatility lingering beneath the surface, markets are entering a more uncertain, but potentially pivotal—phase.In this episode, recorded during the Mortgage Bankers Association National Advocacy Conference, KP breaks down the latest housing data showing a slight pullback in existing home prices for March. Inventory is rising modestly, cash buyers are gaining share, and first time buyers continue to hold steady, painting a picture of a market that’s stable, but no longer surging.At the same time, mortgage activity is beginning to reflect rate pressure. Lock volumes surged in March but are starting to ease in April, signaling a potential slowdown in future fundings. KP explains how even small shifts in rates can ripple through purchase demand, especially during the critical spring season.Beyond housing, deeper signals are emerging from the financial system. Goldman Sachs recently increased its loan loss reserves for private credit, raising questions about risk beneath the surface. Combined with rising bond yields and continued fixed income losses, markets may be entering a “wait and see” phase as investors assess inflation and growth.Geopolitical tensions and energy dynamics are also in play. From potential blockades to shifting global oil flows, these developments could impact inflation, GDP, and ultimately the direction of interest rates. Meanwhile, consumer spending remains resilient, supported by tax refunds and steady demand.And then there’s AI.Despite macro uncertainty, AI development is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. From increased compute demand to rapid growth in software innovation, KP explores how this technological wave could offset broader economic headwinds, and where disruption may hit hardest.Episode Highlights:00:00 – Housing data softens: prices dip and inventory rises0:33  –  Live from Washington, DC: inside the MBA Advocacy Conference02:09 – Mortgage Pressure & Market Trends03:25 – Signals from Goldman Sachs and private credit risk05:21 – Bond yields, volatility, and fixed income losses08:09 – Slowing Lock Activity10:27 – The Xactus Mortgage Intent Index 11:13 – Geopolitics, oil flows, and inflation impact13:28 – Credit trends and early signs of demand returning14:56 – AI acceleration and rising compute demand17:48 – Stock market outlook: topping or continuing higher?18:36 – What to watch next in rates, housing, and marketsWith housing cooling, rates staying elevated, and macro forces pulling in different directions, this episode unpacks the signals that matter most right now.Is this just a temporary slowdown, or the beginning of a broader shift?Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense#HousingMarket #MortgageRates #InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #RealEstate #FederalReserve #AI #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense