From that first copy of the day to driving off your dry cleaving on the way from stepping onto the subway to opening your doors to your first customer of the day We're here to power you along the way Manneris powering Canadian commerce visit us at manneris comm slash commerce So we are officially in the government shutdown Democrats Republicans have not been able to come to agreement or nowhere near as I say That's coming to an agreement about how to fund the government the nature of this shutdown people have lots of ideas over What if it happened it should be about should Democrats demand concessions on tariffs should be about authoritarianism What it is about in the reality we're living in is health care the Affordable Care Act for the last few years I've been supported by tax credits that made the premiums much lower and have expanded coverage under it enormously Those credits expire at the end of this year if nothing is done to keep them from expiring There will be a huge what's called premium shock and millions of people will lose health insurance And so I wanted to have an episode diving into the actual policy debates and stakes of this shutdown the spending fights that led to it The unusual ways in which Republicans have been breaking democratic trust that helps at the stage for it The Affordable Care Act and Medicaid debates that are now at the center of it And then the way the Trump administration is trying to bring very particular forms of partial bear on the Democrats trying to break them Make them capitulate But they're doing some ways I might actually be uniting them the person I want to talk about all this with is near a tandem Tandon is the president of the Center for American Progress one of the largest progressive think tanks She worked in the Clinton Obama and Biden administrations under Obama She was central and helping to craft and pass the Affordable Care Act under Joe Biden She was a director of the domestic policy council So she knows all the policy here inside and out as always my email as her client show at my times.com You're at Tandon. Welcome to the show. Thank you so much for having me So if you're out there following cover to the shutdown you're hearing a lot about something called a CR. What is a CR?
CR stands for a continuing resolution and it basically is legislation that says that the funding levels of the government will just continue as they are for a Specified period of time now, you know, what's different about this CR is that the president has used unilateral powers to kind of and run Whatever the agreements are in Congress, but generally speaking a continuing resolution is a agreement to fund the government Let's go into that little disclaimer you mentioned there the the end runs around it This is a debate about another term people might be hearing called recisions. What are recisions? Recisions are legislation that pulls back funding that has been agreed to so You know, it's interesting about the recisions packages as they are not subject to filibuster So it could just take the simple majority So if it takes 60 votes to come to an agreement and then it takes a simple majority to claw back funding That means that whatever you agree to in a bipartisan manner can be undone in a partisan vote So they're often in congressional fights the things that people following in the news know everybody's fighting about and then sometimes some more internal procedural things that have completely tested everybody off in this recisions bit is actually from my talking to people Congress pretty significant Because what's happening is that you have Democrats Republicans coming together making these funding deals and you 60 votes or more because of the filibuster and then What's fairly unusual Republicans then clung back money for things like PBS and you know public media and USAID through Recisions and so it has created this collapse in I would say Democrats trusted Republicans a lot before this But the sense that they will now go around the deal you just made has created this harder to answer question Well, how do you make a deal at all under those conditions? Absolutely, and you know, I think it's a really combination of things its recisions and then another really self-explanatory term impoundments So recisions are up to subject to a vote impoundments are where the president just refuses to spend the executive range refuses to spend money allocated by Congress So the president has just not been spending funds allocated to the National Institutes of Health to the National Science Foundation To other elements of the government and honestly, I don't think we even have a full picture of what the executive branch has really not implemented of these congressional deals So I think it's really both of these issues But it's also the fact that essentially rust vote can decide to just not listen to Congress at all And I think that is really the fundamental threat to article one They're both threats to article one, but it's this combination where essentially the executive branch is usurping article one spending paris I know this is like totally in the weeds here But Congress is designated to decide how the government allocates funding and that's really being watered down And what's interesting about this debate is I do think probably secretly a number of Republicans particularly in the Senate and some in the house who are on these committees Appropriations committees would secretly like the president's powers to be limited because it really is undermining their authority But I think you're absolutely right at the end of the day, you know We have this Washington talk about a clean CR But fundamentally, this is very different from any other period of time that I've been in Washington where essentially it's not a clean CR Because you know you can undo it I mean essentially you can have an agreement between Republicans and Democrats on What is called a clean CR and then a month or two later?
Restful could just decide not to spend you know Multiple billions of dollars for an agency and then what does anyone even agree to? So I think that is a fundamental part of this debate as well There's also the reality that if recisions become common practice or impound it becomes common practice There'll be democratic presidents and you can imagine them using that authority, right? There's a big spending deal it funds ICE to a certain level actually we're unfunding ICE to that level We're not spending a bunch of money on certain kinds of border enforcement It seems very as you said it seems in the weeds But the question of how you do normal congressional procedure when the deals stop holding is a pretty big one here But I think it would be both selling the Democrats a little bit short and Some of the Republicans here and their argument a little bit short to say this is just about recisions Democrats have increasingly come to the view that they can't let Trump run the government this way There's been a lot of debate over what they should try to draw the line on should it be on Neo fascism should it be on authoritarianism should it be on mass men in the streets Where they decided to draw the line was healthcare And so they're not just asking for clean, you know, extension of the funding of the government They are trying to change what is about to happen in healthcare markets. What is about to happen in healthcare markets?
So under the Affordable Care Act, there's the exchange market So this is a way in which basically middle-class people can get health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and these marketplaces exist in every state And in 2020 there were 12 million people in these marketplaces And now there's 24 million people in these marketplaces in part because during the Biden administration the Congress took two votes to make The marketplaces more affordable essentially they expanded the value of tax credits people receive in order to purchase healthcare in these marketplaces and Essentially that funding is going to run out at the end of this year So what is Imminently happening is that insurers are sending out notices now to people It's just beginning it'll Increase over the next several weeks because open enrollment the time where people choose what health insurance they're going to have starts November 1st So people are going to start getting notices about what their premiums will be in the marketplaces in the coming year And they will be subject to premium shock the expanded tax credits were Really substantial investments and so people are going to see according to Kaiser family foundation on average their premiums double You know a family of Four making you know 55 thousand dollars a year or going to see their prices quadruple So that is a huge price spike and Essentially democrats are saying that we should come together and avoid that price spike and I will know the democrats at the end of last congress in the waning days of the Biden administration They tried to come to a negotiation with republicans around this premium tax red Everyone knew this was coming people talked about it republicans didn't want to deal with it then So I don't know if people realize how big the increase in coverage was under the changes made in the inflation reduction act So 2020 11.4 million people were enrolled in the affordable care marketplace system Right? So that's Obamacare as we understood it when you know Joe Biden becomes president by 2024 four years later The enrollment nearly doubles depending on how you look at it in some cases it does double depending on your years So who are these people who is this massive increase of people flooding into the affordable care act marketplace between 2021 and 2024 There are people who found the marketplace pretty expensive before and then found it affordable And you know it's I think it's really interesting because a sustained republican criticism of the affordable care act after it was passed Is that it wasn't really affordable? I mean they didn't want to make it more affordable But they just said it was too expensive and I know that you covered the passage of the affordable care act I worked on the passage of the affordable care act on the abomb administration and You know the truth is the marketplace is really two forms of coverage in the affordable care act one is Medicaid expansion Which is people who are pretty poor And then people who are above the Medicaid threshold So these are you know really like 99 of these people are working americans They are disproportionately in small businesses. They work for small businesses or own small businesses They make you know anywhere from 15 16 $70,000 a year, but really go all the way to the income up the income You know they're really people are making 35,000 40,000 50,000 individually or as a family So people are choosing to buy health care in the marketplace and subsidize health care the government does help pay Offset a lot of the cost but as you said, we got you know over 11 million people You know roughly first 10 years of abomacare the ACA to get health care But I do think it was really not affordable enough to a lot of people and president biden at first in the american rescue plan with congress expanded the tax credits and then democrats through the inflation reduction act extended those tax credits until this year And fundamentally we learned that actually people really wanted health care if you made it more affordable now again Everyone has to get in the game people spend they have to invest their own dollars people who at higher incomes have to spend more money But what we really learned is that people desperately want to have health care that is affordable and when we made it more affordable As you noted, it basically doubled the number of people who were getting health care and I actually think in this country at this point The fact that we have the lowest rates of uninsurance and our history is a profoundly good thing for the country So you mentioned that a lot of people were talking about here are they make a little bit too much money for medicaid There's another group though, which are people who live in red states that did not expand medicaid Yes, and one of the ironies of this fight is that democrats are shutting the government down To protect and extend tax credits that heavily disproportionately benefit red states because it much is bad states that expand medicaid and it means more people Get the tax credits So you have more than 10% of the population now in florida in texas in georgia in south carolina in utah using the affordable carats Subcities talk to me a bit about the policy and politics of that I mean the politics of health care has been really odd Like last decade or so because you know while we have gotten 40 states to do medicaid expansions or ten states that have not passed medicaid expansion In those states you do see a much higher percentage of people on the exchange markets Just because they're so clearly desperate to have health care they can't really get it And of course I think it is kind of insane we live in a country with states where if you're slightly higher income you get into the exchange markets But really low income people don't have it Um, you know I do think that is very perverted and I'm glad that over a decade so many more states have come on But that does end up being a situation where as kazir family foundation has noted You know we're talking about 75 of people in these exchange markets being in place of the trump one So it's just a long way of saying that republicans are choosing essentially to make people in their states Who already are struggling.
I mean these are not wealthy people face again Not just a slight premium increase but a real premium shock This gets to the politics of this an interesting way the kazir family foundation did a poll on whether people thought these credit should be extended Whether or not the the tax credit should be extended They did this at the sort of roughly the end of september 78 percent of americans were in support of extending the tax credits You don't get that high of a number from any things anymore But that included majorities of not just self-described republicans but self-identified MAGA supporters It had nearly 60 percent support from people who said they were MAGA There's a wall street journal story the other day where trump administration officials were starting to say And honestly that they're actually worried about this that they feel that this is actually a tough thing for them to own It's not going to be great for them if health care premiums skyrocket for millions of people on their watch The shutdown fight is a partisan fight The politics of this the polling of this who it helps who it hurts are not a partisan issue It does not break along partisan lines Absolutely, and you know what's interesting about this is this reminds me of where we were in the ACA repeal debate Which is that was another debate, you know now eight years ago where we were talking about president trump's effort to repeal the ACA and you know in the heat of that debate We were in a very similar place 50 percent of republicans did not want to repeal the ACA A majority of MAGA supporters did not want to repeal the ACA Now why is that it's because this program is actually helping people that need health care coverage and It's helping people in red states that is you know It is a project of government to actually help people Particularly and I also think we're in a moment which is a little bit different for past moments where people feel That the cost of living is very high across the board Now it's also really important to remember that when you if these premiums double that a lot of people which is not to get coverage People choose not to get coverage over time, you know, we will see other people being impacted by that essentially Emergency coverage goes up from hospital shift prices to others So, you know We also know that when people lose coverage and the medicaid with the from the one big beautiful bill act Which I just struggled to say so often but from that We know that when people lose medicaid coverage, it actually drives up prices for other people in the market That takes longer time But I think people totally understand that in this moment It seems like the opposite of common sense to allow this price spike to happen to people when it's completely avoidable and the truth is And just to touch and loss what you mean, you know Republicans know this is a problem I do not think it is an accident that last week that Trump White House has a leak into the Wall Street Journal that they do feel like they have to negotiate this From what I've heard of the meeting with Senator Schumer Congressman Jeffery, speaker jones and leader Thune with president Trump is that the president really does seem to get that he has to deal with this problem and that He might need to make a deal with democrats And then I'd say the last crazy point about this is people seem to acknowledge they have to deal with it They just don't want to deal with it now, which I think just sounds nonsensical to most people Well, let me take that that argument So what you hear if you listen to emus right now with senator Thune with speaker jones and it's their Republicans are happy to discuss this They would love to negotiate over this. They understand it's a problem But only after the government is reopened They're not gonna allow the government to be held hostage on this issue. They will not talk about this issue while the government is closed What's your take on that? I just think it just sounds ridiculous to people right?
I mean people are gonna get their premium shock like their notices in the next few weeks So I think the position of republicans at this point would you know, look I think it's important that they're acknowledging that this is a big problem at least maybe more senator Thune than speaker jones But they're acknowledging that this is a problem But then that's sort of an intellectual trap right because I'm saying like if you think you're you're like a person who's worried about your health care Cost going up. How does this end to you? We know it's a problem, but we'd like you to get your premium Notice and then at the end of the year after you have to make a decision You're supposed to start making decisions on whether you're gonna purchase out here in November at the end of the year will deal with that I mean who thinks that that's like what you should do to your constituents I mean I think once you sort of conceded this is a problem Then I don't really understand why the argument is we need to deal with it later and now and obviously I mean I feel like every democrat america feels like they can trust What the congressional republican leadership says in Donald Trump as as far as they could throw them I mean, it's just like a you know, I mean I do think it sounds kind of cuckoo when you think about what the arguments people are making right now Give up your leverage and then we promise you that you'll get is great It was actually a funny moment. I thought on the Sunday shows this weekend I was watching speaker Johnson be interviewed and he's being pressed Okay, so this is a real problem You say any deal that are you saying that you support the extension of the subsidies?
Do I hear you correctly that you as speaker of the house want to see the tax credit extended at a future date? Is that what you were saying? I haven't staked out any position on it yet because that's not how this process works. We're in a deliberative body I'm asking you for this because you said you wouldn't be willing to talk about it.
I'm the speaker of the house What I have to do is draw consensus among 435 members of my body I don't get out and project what the final conclusion is going to be he very very clearly did not say yes The other republican argument is that what democrats are really trying to do here is give health care subsidies to as a but illegal aliens What is that argument they're making? Okay, I just need to say this is like the most deeply cynical ridiculous thing But I will I watch your shoulders actually fall like I can't believe I have to deal with this bullshit It is really funny to me It's like you can I mean I worked in the White House and I could just imagine them sort of dialing up an illegal immigration argument They have to deal with a confrontation on health care, which of course they know that they have to deal with anyway So it's just totally odd but okay. The best case of their argument is that During the one big beautiful bill act the republicans limited Medicaid coverage to Legal immigrants in the United States. It took they made it more difficult for legal immigrants No, no illegal aliens.
No one documented people nobody crossing the border. We're talking about people like Afghani refugees Ukrainian refugees people subject to domestic violence who get protected status So these are all people who have legal status in the United States now. They are doing a card trick to call them illegal aliens They have legal status in the United States. They are not illegally here They've like shown themselves to the government.
We know who they are and democrats put forward And you know basically they said we'd like to undo everything you did in the medicaid on your attacks I'm medicating this was one part of it But really the substance of their argument was undo the massive cuts to the medicaid program So that is like just false that it is covering illegal aliens. They're not illegal aliens It is currently illegal under federal law for federal dollars to go to health care subsidies for people here illegally. Yes That is like the number one point to just say about this which is The truth is that for those of us who are old enough to remember and I have some battle scars over this issue I've been worked on the legislation. It was a big robust debate about whether people are legally here illegal aliens Un-tackment people could get access to the a say and there's literally a provision that says by statute You cannot receive health care.
The premium tax credit cannot go to any illegal aliens and act many people Whatever you want to call them that is illegal and that is why they've had to do this mental gymnastics to basically transform People are legally here into illegal aliens. This is like two different words They have two different meetings and they're just conglomerating them in order to have some shred of making it lie true But it is still a lie Last summer the coolest place in the house was in your freezer this year It's time to level up reliance home comfort has over 160,000 five-star reviews for delivering the type of outstanding customer experience Canadians have counted on For over 60 years right now Don't pay for 12 months on a featured air conditioner or heat pump Call on the experts that know how to beat the heat Conditions apply see website for details Hi, I'm Solana Pine I'm the director of video at the New York Times for years My team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments videos by times journalists that have the expertise to help you understand What's going on now? We're bringing those videos to you in the watch tab in the New York Times app It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing all the videos there are free for anyone to watch You don't have to be a subscriber download the New York Times app to start watching So we've been talking primarily about the Affordable Care Act private health insurance marketplaces But when we start talking about the questions of immigrants of different forms They get seen in Medicaid and as you mentioned the there a lot was changed in Medicaid The expiring tax credits come actually from democratic bills, right? These were you know tax credits set to expire and as you mentioned the inflation production act But the Medicaid changes were in the obba a Talk me through the Medicaid changes.
Yeah I mean this is this is the biggest size and makes shift in healthcare in my 25 years of working on it and in a negative way I mean this is the Republicans essentially Put forward a transformation of the Medicaid program. They adopted a series of regulations that will mean that millions of people lose health care They instituted work requirements, but those work requirements You know just are honestly about so much paperwork that it just really becomes hard for people to Keep their health insurance. Um, and you use the complexity of the paperwork to keep you both programs My wife and he Larry's literally writing a book on this it's called the time tax I know I know I mean I'm a great student of her work We try we did a lot of work in the federal government to go the other way and make benefits easier and but essentially that is kind of the hack The hack is that they make it's so complicated to access your benefits that people will lose their benefits And you know, this is a highly contested debate, you know during the consideration of the bill But the fact has always been clear that states that have used systems of complexity have lost coverage You know our consigns to work requirements with complicated paperwork and lots and lots of people lost their health insurance Because you know you ask them to verify every month the whole system is sort of designed to keep people out of health care So just to step back and I know there was a robust debate about that one big beautiful bill But the heart of that legislation was fundamentally it's a complicated tax bill But the truth of that legislation at its most based components was that unlike any legislation that has been passed by a congress in at least My life the legislation itself provided a massive tax cut to the wealthiest extended middle class tax cuts But a big innovation was large scale tax cuts to the wealthiest americans a lot of corporate tax cuts But really the structure of the legislation at and cuts to snap and medicate and you know There's a republicans really had this big argument about fraud, etc But that was all also just honestly, can I say bullshit on this? It was just yes It was just ridiculous and the fundamentals of that is republicans have been trying to undo the expansion of the welfare state Lots of people got health care coverage over the last decade and they really think that that's we're spending too much on that And that's really fundamentally why the legislation was so unpopular because you know There's a lot of ways they can be in stab or both parties are up for grabs But fundamentally I think americans did not think that the big problem in america is that too many people out of healthcare One reason you know that americans didn't think that is that Donald Trump never runs saying that He continuously runs saying he's gonna protect medicare He's gonna protect medicaid he's gonna fix the affordable care act give this country the health care it deserves And to a large extent when I talk to congressional democrats to them at this moment when they're gonna party's brand is not shining shall we say I think that's where This is their big political opportunity.
This is the issue that americans care about that they also trust democrats on This is the issue where donald trump is repeatedly betraying promises to people right saying he wouldn't come medicaid in doing so Saying he would fix the affordable care act and then allowing a gigantic premium spike to happen Somebody's very involved in the democratic effort to take back the house saying basically Look the most dangerous thing Donald trump is doing is his effort to sort of corrupt the government to do an authoritarian tool But the most effective tool democrats have against him is health care policy that they believe that the way they're going to win the house back Is on health care Yeah, I mean look there's a fascinating marriage of convenience between sort of the pro welfare state kind of populace and the Libertarians and you know that this isn't popular not just because donald trump didn't run on it because also donald trump never talks about this he never talks about obba He never you know, I mean I knew we were winning this debate during the consideration of the bill Unfortunately, we don't live in a world where public opinion actually dictates how congressional leaders act You know they were dedicated to they sped up the debate because it is so unpopular But I think you know, I think what's really important to think about is you know how people hear these things, right? And we I mean we could talk for hours about there a lot of people pay a lot of attention to politics or a lot of people who don't pay a lot of attention to politics That has always been the case in the United States There are always people that like we've always ran elections that way and I think this is a really crucial part of this discussion Which is in a world where lots of people are not paying attention to politics and they are pretty stressed out in their lives You know, what are the things that feel real in their lived experience? And you know, I just be candid that I just I am genuinely petrified by what the president is doing to weaponize the us military against cities But I also think we have to acknowledge that a lot of people live in places that are not in cities and They're kind of not paying attention to the news every day and they're struggling to get by and it is totally legitimate And I think we have to say this it is totally legitimate for that person To be pretty anxious about making ends meet and hearing about health care costs for them going up And I think the truth of the country that we're in right now and maybe we wish everyone talked about one issue versus another but People understand this cost of living problem I mean, what's fascinating about America, but it's not just America. It's around the world We just kept us wearing a conference with leaders, um, you know, president of center left leaders progressive leaders from western countries, you know, europe Canada, Australia and three years after 9% inflation in the united states people care about cost of living today as much as they cared about it back then Which says to me that there is like an overall sense that people are Feeling out of control of how they kind of afford their life and so in that world, you know, democracy Mean leaders have to meet voters where they are.
There's no like referee the voters win and this is an issue where I mean, I think there's actually more opportunity and the thing that's so fundamentally amazing about the first eight months of Trump Which you know, I expected a lot of the authoritarian threat I am genuinely surprised by their creativity, but it is horrifying But the thing that is most remarkable and amongst the things that is so different from the first four years of his administration Is he is actually getting away with hurting working-class people this time his big legislation in the first four years that would have hurt working-class people Was the repeal effort to undo the Affordable Care Act and we stopped him. The democrats stopped him This eight months He has passed legislation to me that will mean that people's help they lose their health care working-class people lose their health care utility rates will go up And he has a tariff policy that means the price of goods will go up and who faces that cost disproportionately working-class people So we have to have alternatives for people But you know what you talk about really matters particularly when you're in the opposition And I think it is crucial that we talk about the pain that Trump and republicans are delivering having voted on it or Delivered it through his executive actions on tariffs They are delivering pain to working-class people every day and we have to keep our eye on that ball One of the arguments that I made about a shutdown that others made about a shutdown is that there it's an intentional event The problem Democrats have had is not that they don't have a message. They have lots of messages arguably many too many messages Is nobody cares what they're saying because they don't have power And the shutdown what it's already doing is forcing a debate I mean, you you know turn on the news and you see johnson and you see she marina see jeffries and you see food and they're talking about Health insurance subsidies right they're talking about the democrats best issue We are devoting a full show to it here because there's something happening on it, right? It's not just out there as one of the million policy problems flitting about the ether as Donald trump sends a national guard into cities you know democrats have been very Skittish about using leverage they have I think people don't actually realize how much leverage they have not been using they didn't just skip the shutdown in march But they're you know helping problems a closure on the national defense authorization act and all kinds of things They are not throwing sand in the gears and creating crises as much as they could because they've been I think quite friend about what do they get out of it?
What happens if Donald Trump moves into a prize home mode which we'll talk about in a second But one thing they get out of it is a modicum of control over attention and then they actually have to win the argument Right. You can't pick about argument and lose it's not going to help you But already you see the trump administration starting to take their own danger on health insurance subsidy seriously Nothing matters in politics if people don't know about it Nothing matters if people either can't feel it or even if they are feeling it But there's not the attention to tell them how to interpret what's happening to them But one thing they're showing is doing it seems like it's working is shining light on this issue in particular Which is you know what democrats on level in addition to whatever negotiations they have set up to achieve Yeah, I agree with that. I guess I would just I might offer an amendment which is I think the reason why this is getting coverage is because democrats have leverage on the 60 votes And I think that look republicans democrats we all live in a media ecosystem Which is a challenge of it is there is a lot of news created by the trump administration But also, you know if something feels like a fait accompli it does not actually get that much attention I'll give an example which is republicans nuked the filibuster, uh, essentially nuked the filibuster and the lead up to the obba And we don't have to get into the really hard to explain details, but essentially they blew that up on a 50 percent vote They blew up the filibuster on being able to package nominees together, you know democrats Didn't go along they blew up the filibuster and like, you know, no one in america knows about this You know that might have been a big debate a year or two three four or five years ago in normal politics But in a world in which trump is you know threatening the national guard in ticities It does seem like kind of a minutian So I think the real issue here is having a fight over a major scale issue and also having the ability to like there is some Since you could possibly win the fight and at a time where part of the democratic brand is poor because people perceive it even democrats perceive it as weak And that is why it is important for all leaders within the party to use opportunities where they have leverage to speak out and Just to say, you know leadership is a social contract wherever it is. It's a social contract It's like i'm going to follow you and you are going to Protect me or look out for me or do something for me and here We've talked about some of the authoritarian threat and the kendran are real sense of anxiety and fear mix democrats about how much Our country is transforming in our eyes and it is not unreasonable for in that moment when you are scared to look for your leaders to be strong and so I think that is also part of the Politics of all of this which is here's an opportunity for democrats to stand up for you know Not just like willy-nilly is something that helps them but something that actually helps the american people in a way that Every voter can understand as you can see from this poll like it's not an intellectual exercise about congressional powers versus article one versus article two versus article three it is a Real live debate about people's lives and that is an opportunity that has not come before and may not come again before the midterms So the trump administration's response on this separate from their messaging is you think it's shut down its leverage for you?
No, it's leverage for us You probably saw that president trump tweeted an AI-generated music video of office of management and budget director and as he put it project 2025 fame Russ vote nice to acknowledge yes, you're after election right um tweeted this music video for us vote as the grim reaper The idea is that the shutdown gives trump and vote powers to make the federal government in some Holy new way that they can do things during shutdown that couldn't otherwise do and emgrats should fear what they're going to do What powers doesn't give them? I mean legally it doesn't give them more powers legally It's actually supposed to give them less power because it's illegal to fire people during a shutdown while they're furlough That is actually in the law now. I appreciate that law is sort of questionable with these with the president But I think there's two things going on here one trump uses fear as an asymmetric asset, right? I mean the scrim reaper meme is exactly him trying to get democrats to Give in out of fear And you know, I just think trump is like any other bully and the more you fear at his discretion the more you're going to do what he wants Which is free power.
I mean, that's the power of bullying It makes you do things that the bully wants without him actually have to throw that punch But I also think there's something just completely different about this which is And I think this is like an underrated part of all this which is we have never had a negotiation over the budget of the congress Between the congress and the president we've never had a negotiation take place like this While the president is fully committed to unilaterally closing down agencies I think the american people blame trump because he's been closing down agencies or trying to close down elements of this government for eight months You know, I just think the public just sees everything as they're not deciphering news separately They see all this against a backdrop and you know, I pay a lot of attention and use Do we even know that the east department of education is fully functional right now? I mean you tried to close the agency then a court reopened the agency then they kind of lost a decision It's really hard to keep track what's open and closed and on a sanig Government shutdown It feels like it's just like a matter of degree not a matter of just existence of whether these agencies are working on So I think fundamentally I don't think you should give into the bully just threatening people and it's kind of horrifying and we shouldn't reward this kind of behavior But also, I mean, I personally understand why people care they care about human beings and I do do but fundamentally He's going to get worse if he's not stopped. This is the other part of all this we're in monthly This is an opportunity to push back what is really crazy. I think and really just terrible is Republican house and senate members have lost power to the president and this is a system that trump has hacked that You know our founding fathers expected congressional leaders to care about their power over That's like the idea of separation of powers is that while the president might have a lot of power Members of congress of both parties would jealously guard their power.
That is what he has hacked He has hacked his like scaring his own members into like basically seeing power to them And so what really should happen here is republicans who actually care should like basically secretly hope that democrats win this debate So they can get back to being like, I mean, I'm also I just wonder every day like do you look in the mirror and just have dignity like I just wonder what these people think they're doing The specific argument that they're making about what vote can do is that they can do mass firings Yeah, and there's like two things worth talking about with that So one is as you say that is facially under the law illegal now. They've done a lot of legal things stream court seems to be relatively Ehm, they're relatively About things that would have felt really good, but but there's that and this would be you know pretty flagrantly illegal The other though is I think a more fundamental conceptual question This idea that destroying a federal government that you run Is Like a good move for you. They're treating the federal government, which they are in charge of as A hostage democrats need to stop them from shooting. Yeah, and to be clear I do not want to see the federal government shot But usually when you're the president and you run the executive branch, you don't want the executive branch to fall apart And if you've been listening to some of chumps cabinet appointees, they don't seem to want their agencies gut it I mean, I believe this is why doge functionally stopped So I guess you could just try to attack things only democrats like in government I think that would be illegal But I'm curious for how you think about that because my view is that if they had wanted to continue gutting the federal government They would have they have the power to do it The fact that russ vote has not been doing much more than he's been doing Suggest to me that the transition actually has not wanted to do all these things at a certain point They're running federal government and they needed to work for them And that a lot of this is you know spoken mirrors They would be like shooting at their own administrative body now As opposed to just something it's the democrats job to protect and manage Yeah, so I think it's fascinating about this whole like I'm going to shoot the hostage that is actually my Agency is look I have been on the other side of this I was in the White House in the last four years where you know We were worried about republicans shutting down the government and the truth is we you know I think honestly people generally think that the president is in charge and so you do president is always worried or they should always be worried about owning a shutdown But also when you have a shutdown it really matters what happens in the first 24 or 36 48 hours So, I mean if you're thinking rationally about this, this is what I think is so interesting is they basically threatened to have the firings, right?
And so the moment that you should really want to scare everybody would have been thursday You know, I really that russ vote was going to start his mass firings, you know Thursday friday morning in order to pressure democrats very quickly to reopen the government that didn't happen and I think the reason and it still hasn't Happened I mean they keep threatening it still hasn't happened now. I don't wish it to happen I hope they don't I hope it doesn't happen, but I actually think that when Donald Trump does things like this it makes clear to people he's kind of relishing the whole situation and that he owns a Chateon more than anything else it basically looks like he's in control of the situation that he's basically using it as an excuse to fire people It literally says I'm gonna fire people from democrat agencies now. What is that? What is a democrat agency agencies that help working class people the agencies are like is labored whatever who knows but essentially I think fundamentally the weird back and forth and I think republicans are clearly back channeling to him not to do this I mean I think it makes them look like they own the pain to people because they do own the pain to people That's another piece of this the other thing that they have been doing is freezing money for Projects in blue states.
It speaks to the irony here of democrats pushing a shutdown to try to protect tax credits and help red states and republicans responding by freezing Infrastructure money in blue states I've been talking to democrats about this and universally what they're saying to me is that it is Uniting their side and hardening their resolve. I think there's a bit of an analogy to the tariffs here Trump has used tariffs to break a bunch of other countries and try to bring them closer in line with what he wanted and in trying to do that say to Canada he united Canadians and destroyed the political career of the more Trump-like Yeah, you know right-wing figure who was expected to be the next Canadian prime minister and that's in large part how Marccarnie got elected in brazil It has united a lot of sport around lula When people feel that you are punishing them unfairly even if it is hurting them, right? New York does not want to see money for the second avenue somebody frozen It tends to turn them against you people don't enjoy being bullied And so I think that these two levels right normally what the president does during a shutdown when the shutters push by the opposition party Say listen. I'm a thoughtful reasonable person here I would love to negotiate over anything what I want to do is turn the lights on I'm not gonna let you hold the federal government hostage and say Donald Trump what he's saying is that I am so excited to use this shutdown as cover to push an extremist agenda I wouldn't even have done three weeks ago.
I'm gonna freeze a bunch of money from blue states And I'm not really gonna negotiate with you. It's not a way of deflecting blame No, and I think people you know like I think people sniff this stuff out. I think it's really interesting mentioning Carney You know look around the world who are the leaders who are actually Popular in their countries Carney Lula in Australia Prime Minister al-benisi these are people who are actually gaining in popularity because they are standing up to Trump You know what's so fascinating about this moment is that Trump is basically like he has a modus operandi that has worked against A series of institutions over those last eight months it is to bully and scare you and to use the power of the federal government against them in the world in which Media networks are caving law firms are caving some universities are caving This has been a very effective strategy for him to just literally scare the shit out of people and I think the truth of it though is bullies work by bullying if you are not bullied by the bully then like half of their job is gone So I think the irony of this whole situation is that he has a way of working Which is to try and scare you and if you just hold firm and let it pass It will be okay and that people would prefer I mean I've heard from people in agencies who are worried about getting fired But they think it's more important for democrats to hold firm to trump because they know if he is allowed to get away with this It will only get worse. It's also a long-time strategy that jumps very sponest of you against which is to provoke him into overreactions Yes, and also I think here like this is a great example to me of an overreaction He closes a second Avenue subway he's closing all these construction projects that affect New York I think the idea was to punish Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries in order to maximize paint But then you know these projects a variety of these projects affect New Jersey as well, Gateway Tunnel other projects So it's not just limited to New York City and then of course that raises the question of what does everyone think about that?
So Mikey share all the Democratic candidate for governor immediately attacked the president for unnecessarily closing down this project stopping this project And then the question went to the Republican candidate and he basically said no one's asking me about this He really is avoiding saying Donald Trump done something wrong even though I think there's 95,000 jobs at stake And so I do think it creates interesting counter pressures in ways that perhaps Republicans have not thought through It gets to this what is usually the question of the shutdown a shutdown over time will cause pain What Trump is trying to do is accelerate with the grants and the funding he's trying to cause pain to blue states faster than a shutdown naturally would If our sweat begins, you know laying off fast amounts of the federal workforce Maybe that would cause pain faster than things otherwise would but we're pretty early in this Yes, the thing that will happen is it functions of the government if there's not a deal will begin to either degrade or to shut down You know, you might not have air traffic controllers getting paid and you can have flight delays You might have national parks close usually try to stay out of the way of that and blame the other party for it But talk to me a bit about what that might look like if this week there's no deal if next week there's no deal I mean if we're first trying to look at a shutdown of four weeks five weeks six weeks When this stops just being a media story about a negotiation and begins to be something that's happening to Americans What will they feel? Yeah, I mean look there will be stories about people not being able to get passports as easily and stories about the national parks And there were definitely be stories about you know veteran services and things like that I think what is interesting about this shutdown debate which I've been in various shutdowns, but There's two issues in people's heads like what does the government do broadly and then you know if Democrats are capable of holding on to this line Which I think they will be is there'll be another pain in people's heads as well Which is premium shocks and I think these are two things and right now I mean what's been really interesting about this shutdown is that there hasn't been as many stories as we usually get in a shutdown of In the first couple of days of problems and other things in part because I think There might be a little bit more of people in your to those kinds of stories given the world ran But there will be more and more stories like that I mean everyone sees things online the argument of Republicans for the last year has been we should do do doge We should do doge on steroids because the federal government is useless And now they're the big champions of keeping it open. I just get a fundamental level people understand that this is sort of bullshit So I mean the whole thing this debate comes down to is like democrats basically being let me help you help me help you You don't want these premium tax rights and you know if I were Thune and Johnson I would know that Trump basically wants to make a deal as well at some point He's not gonna like live like this forever and I'm sure he's much more focused on the national guard and cities but fundamentally his voters are gonna be hurt by this in a world where his economic approval numbers are already low and Cost of living numbers are already low anyone rational the White House will know that they want to make a deal eventually And do you think he's gonna be so loyal to Johnson and Thune to not basically pull the rug under their Underneath them. No, so I mean my take on all of this is this I think maybe before we get the mass fire He's we will get a deal Do you have any sense yet of the outlines about that deal might look like?
Do you think that is clear? I mean people talk a lot about jin jahin and i'm cut senator from New Hampshire has become a key go between with republicans Are you hearing outlines of something taking shape or not yet? I mean what I hear is that there are a lot of conversations but that none of them are engaged with Thune and you have to engage the leader And he's holding on to his posture of really not negotiating on this and maybe things will change I think you know, I think republicans had a lot more confidence last Wednesday that democrats would fold I think they expected the republican message machine to work on immigration Which it is not people are not buying this immigration debate two to one republicans even think this debate is around health care and not immigration So I think the fact that they went to their go-to of scaring people about illegal immigrants and not it hasn't worked and you know The coverage really still is on health care and again It's going to get worse and worse and worse on health care because people are gonna get these Shocking premium hikes in the mail and then people have to decide people will decide not to get coverage These are gonna be stories we all live with so I fundamentally think that the challenge here, you know Just to be honest Mike Johnson basically saying he's not going to take up this legislation He's not even had doesn't even have the house in this week I mean how seriously are they taking this it really has made it difficult for moderate democrats to say well like yes We can negotiate because whatever deal they strike with Thune has to get agreed to by Johnson Otherwise like what are they all doing and then I mean, but fundamentally this will come down to Trump Then always a final question. What are three books you'd recommend to the audience?
My absolute top recommendation is why nations fail by Darren Asamaglu and James Robinson The essential theme of the book is that Inclusive political systems create inclusive economic systems exclusive political systems create extractive economic systems Which basically to boil it down is saying that Democracy is good for capitalism and markets and actually people's economic success and that Maybe we describe oligarchy is really bad for economic growth and it is why countries tend to fail So I think it is a description of our history, but also a warning sign about our future Sirens call by Chris Hayes And here it's a very slightly different, but I think the thing and you've talked a lot about this The most important element of politics is attention We talk a lot in politics about political leaders biography geography and their ideology But like fundamentally their ability to convince people of their position and what they where they want to take the country and defend against attacks And have a vision for the future all depend on you know how much people want to hear and listen and be led by them And that is all really is all a function of people being first willing to pay attention to what you say So I think that is a kind of really interesting understanding of the world and then end times by Peter Trichin, which is does fall a little bit on the Why nations fail but kind of gives a sense of Why we are in this moment itself and what explains the Trump era based on Essentially how people probably have felt stuck for a long time and it makes me think about how we need a political system that is Answering more fundamental questions than perhaps it has no far near tendent. Thank you very much. Thanks so much for having me This episode of this conscious produced by Roland who fact-checking by Michelle Harris with kids and Claire our senior audio engineers Jeff Gell with additional mixing by almond soda our executive producer is Claire Gordon the show's production team also includes Annie Galvin Marie Cassione Jack McCordick marina king Kristen Lynn and young cobalt original music by Isaac Jones Carol Saburo and Pat McCusker Audience strategy by Christine C. Mluski and Shannon Buster the director of New York Times pinning audio is Andy Rose Strasser