What the Steepening Yield Curve Actually Signals

This episode of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo dives into the steepening yield curve that has markets buzzing in mid-June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury has widened to nearly 80 basis points, and what that really means for the economy. They challenge the common recession signal interpretation, pointing to the Fed's recent rate hold under new Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky inflation around 3 percent, and a labor market that added 172,000 jobs last month but saw unemployment tick up to 4.3 percent. Could this steepening actually signal growth expectations rather than a downturn? They explore how the curve behaved in similar post-tightening cycles and what bond investors are pricing in right now. No hot takes, just a clear-eyed look at one of the most watched indicators in macro. #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #BondMarket #MacroEconomics #SteepeningCurve #Inflation #LaborMarket #FOMC #Economics #MacroTuesdays #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Bonds #FedPolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo