What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk

This episode of Macro Tuesdays drills into the ongoing yield curve inversion — the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.28%, the 10-year at 4.54%, keeping the spread negative since mid-2022. Lucas and Luna discuss why this historically reliable recession signal hasn't yet delivered a downturn, whether the lag is different this time, and what the recent flattening of the curve means for growth expectations. With the S&P 500 down 2.8% in a week and the Nasdaq off 5.1%, the hosts examine whether markets are finally pricing in the slowdown the yield curve has been signaling. They also touch on the jobs report due Friday and how a strong labor market keeps defying the inversion's usual logic. #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionRisk #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #JobsReport #StockMarket #S&P500 #Nasdaq #2YearYield #10YearYield #MacroEconomics #Inflation #LaborMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo