What will the 2026 devolved elections mean for Scotland, Wales and the UK?

On Thursday 7 May, voters in Scotland and Wales will elect the members of the devolved parliaments in Edinburgh and Cardiff. A change of government is expected in Wales, where Labour trails both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in the polls. In Scotland, by contrast, the SNP is forecast to take a fifth successive victory, potentially with an outright majority, which the party will claim provides a mandate for an independence referendum. What are the probable electoral and government formation scenarios? What will the results mean for how Scotland and Wales are governed? What challenges and opportunities will face the incoming first ministers? And what are the potential implications for Westminster and relations between the UK nations? On the eve of these crucial votes, the Institute for Government convened an expert panel to explore what is at stake and what is likely to happen. On the panel: Professor John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde Liz Lloyd, former Chief of Staff to the First Minister of Scotland, Specialist Partner at Flint Global Akash Paun, Programme Director for Devolution at the Institute for Government Jane Runeckles, former Chief of Staff to the First Minister of Wales, FDA National Officer This event was chaired by Dr Hannah White, Director and CEO of the Institute for Government.