What's behind muni moves?

Municipal bonds have struggled so far in 2025 as increased issuance and elevated volatility have weighed on prices. However, with risks to the current economic expansion rising, the case for munis has only grown more compelling. On a tax-equivalent basis, muni yields are higher relative to Treasuries and compete with those offered by corporate credit. Additionally, the muni yield curve is steeper than other markets, meaning investors are compensated more for extending duration. At the same time, they have less credit risk. Not only do state balance sheets look healthy but across credit ratings, municipal bond default rates have been consistently lower than those of corporate bonds. All this said, the sector is not without its challenges. Federal spending cuts, tariffs and restrictive immigration policies could disrupt activity across municipalities, although these impacts will be felt differently across sectors and regions. On this episode of Insights Now, Gabriela Santos is joined by Neene Jenkins, Head of Municipal Credit Research, to discuss Neene’s outlook for the sector. Watch the video version on YouTube. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify