What’s next for Venezuela? Oil production, global markets and foreign investment, with Jorge León

Let’s Talk Energy and unpack a story that has been dominating the headlines – Venezuela. The US capture and extradition of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is the biggest energy story of the year to date and has analysts scrambling to evaluate the short and long-term impacts on oil markets. Venezuela’s production peaked above 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s but fell steeply in the ensuing years as corruption and neglect pushed production to around a million barrels per day. A US naval blockade in recent weeks further cut the country’s crude exports. Venezuela claims the world’s largest oil reserves, but much of it is locked up in heavy crude that is difficult to get to market, making revitalization of the country’s oil industry a time-consuming and expensive proposition. Why does Venezuela have outsized importance in the global oil markets, and how could potential long-term US involvement in the country’s oil industry impact markets? How much money would it take for Venezuela to return to its lofty historical production, and who might be willing to invest? What are the geopolitical ramifications of the US reasserting its control over the Western Hemisphere for both China and OPEC+?  Related Analysis: Venezuela’s long road back: Trump and Energy Report Flash Edition (accessible for non-clients) Trump and Energy Report – Flash Edition Venezuela (clients only) US-Venezuela crude deal conjures up long-term challenges for China (clients only) What it will take to bring Venezuela’s oil output back to 3 million bpd (clients only) Record high Venezuelan barrels on water set stage for trade realignment (clients only) How ‘uninvestable’ Is Venezuela, really? (clients only)  Related Episodes: Supply, demand and geopolitics: Oil markets in 2026 with Janiv Shah and General Index's Corey Stewart What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye The looming oil supply challenge with Artem Abramov  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.  Produced by: Laura Rodríguez Skaug & Både Og.  Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.  Follow us on:  LinkedIn  YouTube  Instagram  X