When the Fed Hikes Into a Soft Landing What History Says

The market is pricing a soft landing, but Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari just said he expects a rate hike this year. Lucas and Luna dig into what happens when the Fed tightens into an economy that's already slowing. They look at the 1994-1995 tightening cycle — the closest historical analog — and what it means for the S&P 500 at 7,354 and the inverted yield curve at 31 basis points. Specific focus: the 300-basis-point hike cycle that didn't trigger a recession, the bond market's false signal in 1995, and why the current 10-year yield at 4.40 percent might be telling a different story than the 2-year at 4.09. Plus, a tactical look at which sectors historically lead when the Fed overshoots. #NeelKashkari #FederalReserve #RateHike #SoftLanding #TighteningCycle #S&P500 #TreasuryYield #InvertedYieldCurve #1994Tightening #BondMarket #FedPolicy #BearMarketPodcast #Fexingo #Finance #Investing #Macro #MarketHistory #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo