Who Is Winning the Iran War: Tehran or Trump?

After signing a Memorandum of Understanding in June, the U.S. and Iran entered a delicate peace. As negotiators worked toward a permanent deal, one question loomed: Who won the war in Iran — Tehran or Trump? Hours after we concluded a debate on that very question, strikes resumed. By morning, President Trump declared the truce over. Today, we bring you that debate, and the question of who holds the upper hand, and what has been gained and lost, is more pressing than ever.  Note: This debate was recorded on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, before the verbal dissolution of the Islamabad Memorandum and the resumption of military action in the Iran War.  Arguing "Tehran is Winning": Suzanne Maloney, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution  Arguing "Trump is Winning": Matthew Kroenig, Vice President for Geostrategy and Fellows and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security  Emmy award-winning journalist John Donvan moderates  Join the conversation on Substack—share your perspective on this episode and subscribe to our weekly newsletter for curated insights from our debaters, moderators, and staff.  Follow us on YouTube, Instagram, LinkedIn, X, Facebook, and TikTok to stay connected with our mission and ongoing debates.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices