Why a forced ceasefire in Ukraine is a terrible idea - with Fabian Hoffmann

Why a forced ceasefire in Ukraine is a terrible idea - with Fabian HoffmannOriginally Streamed February 16, 2025 Tune in every Sunday at21:00 Kyiv time,20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly on our YouTube Channel! /@Tochnyi(To convert 21:00 Kyiv time to your time):https://daylight-savings.com/difference/eu/eastern/Panel:⭐ Fabian Hoffmann, @FRHoffmann1▶️ Joseph,@josephthomason.tochnyi.info▶️ Colby Badhwar, @ColbyBadhwar▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning - @edrotning.tochnyi.info▶️ Geschlittert, @geschlittert.bsky.social▶️ German Aid to Ukraine, @deaidua (pre-recorded)Program Guide:00:00:00 Intro 00:00:59 Welcome 00:01:42 Why a forced peace is bad 00:06:14 Can Russia re-arm in 1-2 years? 00:12:46 Russia's next move? 00:15:00 Can NATO defend its borders in the near future? 00:17:28 deterrence now more effective than later? 00:21:40 Peace through strength - or risk through weakness 00:25:04 The chances of Russia becoming irrational 00:27:45 American projections on Ukraine 00:28:51 What does a Security Guarantee look like for Ukraine? 00:33:38 The possibility of casualties in a European peacekeeping force 00:36:09 The political will to maintain European peacekeepers 00:39:34 How would the situation change if Ukraine had Nuclear deterrence? 00:52:27 Could Europe help Ukraine hold its own without the US? 01:07:28 How long could Ukraine survive on its own? 01:10:15 Wrap up Fabian Hoffmann is a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP), University of Oslo, specializing in missile technology, nuclear strategy, and defense policy. His PhD research explores the strategic-level effects of conventional long-range strike weapons, analyzing their implications for conventional and nuclear deterrence.Follow us on BlueSky: @tochnyi.infoTwitter (X): @tochnyiSpotify: TochnyiPodcastsSee the work of “the Basement” here:https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/Follow the Basement’s separate project: “Unit Observer”Bluesky: @warunitobserver.bsky.socialTwitter(X): @WarUnitObserverhttps://linktr.ee/tochnyiPlease subscribe, like, retweet and visit Tochnyi's website to support our latest research and other work. You can watch all the live broadcasts on YouTube!Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.