Why Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Ending

The Last Trade: Jackson, Michael, and Brian make the case that Bitcoin is carving out a structural bottom as old-coin distribution collapses and the worst of ETF and treasury-company selling exhausts itself. They break down Japan reclassifying crypto as a financial product and slashing its effective tax rate from 55% toward 20%. They dig into why the Clarity Act, not the administration, is the real green light for Wall Street. They close on Morgan Stanley's $4 to $8 trillion AI capex wave and the launch of Onramp's Back to the Basics campaign. --- 🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership. 👉 Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys — open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt 📩 Schedule a consultation: https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make. 🎙️ About This Episode The crew opens on Alex Thorn's chart showing 2026 on pace for less than half the awakened old coins of 2024 and 2025, and Will Clemente's read that ETF and treasury-company selling has largely exhausted itself while long-term holders sit on record supply. Brian sees Bitcoin grinding into the $90Ks by year end, with 2027 as the year the market realizes it isn't dead. They break down Japan reclassifying crypto as a financial product and cutting its effective tax rate from 55% toward 20%, then argue the Clarity Act's real power is air cover: defined CFTC and SEC roles that let JP Morgan, BlackRock, and DTCC lay tokenization plumbing without fear of a Warren-style ambush. The back half runs through Interactive Brokers listing nine tokens, Bessent's Iran wallet seizures and Fort Knox gold claim, and Morgan Stanley's forecast of $4 to $8 trillion in AI capex by 2028. They close on Onramp's Back to the Basics launch: Brian's fundamentals report, zero-fee DCA, 50% off Bitcoin trades through Labor Day, and 100 free Bitcoin IRAs under code basics. 🧠 Chapters 00:00 - Introduction and Podcast Announcements 03:31 - Bitcoin Sentiment and On-Chain Distribution in 2024 08:17 - On-Chain Valuation Metrics and Market Sentiment 12:42 - Japan's Crypto Legislation and Tax Reforms 14:34 - US Legislation and Global Regulatory Race 20:35 - Implications of Japan's Crypto Policy for US Markets 25:46 - Market Outlook and Institutional Flows 33:42 - Tokenomics and Altcoin Dynamics 37:22 - Iran Crypto Asset Seizures and Geopolitical Risks 43:56 - Data Center Buildouts and AI Infrastructure 49:10 - Back to the Basics: Bitcoin Fundamentals and Education 58:27 - Conclusion and Final Remarks 💡 Subscribe & Stay Ahead Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis: High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody. 📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research Subscribe to Onramp Media for more: 🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | SVN Live