Why Commercial Real Estate Is the Next Recession Test

Episode 18 of Recession Watch tackles the $11 trillion commercial real estate market, where $2.1 trillion in loans come due by 2028. Lucas and Luna break down why office vacancy rates near 20% in major cities haven't caused a systemic collapse yet, but regional banks—holding 40% of CRE debt—could change that. They examine the difference between the 2008 housing crisis and today's CRE stress, the role of remote work, and why the Fed's rate path matters more than headlines suggest. With the S&P 500 near all-time highs and the VIX below 16, the hosts ask whether the market is pricing in complacency or a genuine soft landing. Numbers discussed include the 10-year yield at 4.48%, the spread over 2-years at 46 basis points, and real GDP growth at 1.6%. A must-listen for anyone watching the next domino in the economic cycle. #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #RealEstate #RegionalBanks #OfficeVacancy #RemoteWork #FedPolicy #InterestRates #10YearTreasury #YieldCurve #SoftLanding #LendingStandards #LoanMaturities #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo