Why Consumer Confidence and Spending Are Decoupling

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between consumer confidence and actual spending. With the New York Fed's household financial anxiety index hitting a four-year high in June 2026, but retail sales still holding up, the hosts break down what's driving this paradox. They look at the May CPI print of 4.2% annual inflation—the highest in three years—and how it's cutting into real wage gains despite nominal hourly earnings rising to $37.50. They also discuss the surprising surge in JOLTS job openings to 7.6 million, and why that hasn't translated into lower unemployment or higher consumer sentiment. Lucas argues that the key is the 'wealth effect' from rising asset prices, especially among higher-income households, while lower-income groups are feeling the sting of inflation. Luna points out that the labor market is becoming more bifurcated, with part-time work surging. The conversation ties it all together: why the Fed faces a tricky path, and what the yield curve's recent uninversion might really mean for the economy. #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #FederalReserve #JOLTS #LaborMarket #CPI #WealthEffect #Spending #HouseholdFinances #NewYorkFed #YieldCurve #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Economy #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo