Why Corporate Bond Spreads Are Flashing a Recession Warning

Lucas and Luna dig into the corporate bond market, where spreads have widened 40 basis points since March despite stocks hitting new highs. They explain why high-grade and high-yield spreads are diverging, what that says about credit market stress, and how this signal has historically preceded recessions by 6 to 12 months. With the S&P 500 above 7,500 and small caps rallying, the bond market is telling a different story. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of spread widening, the role of liquidity, and why the current divergence might be more about sector rotation than an imminent downturn. They also touch on the Iran war's effect on energy costs and how that feeds into credit risk. A data-rich conversation for anyone trying to read the tea leaves of the next slowdown. #CorporateBonds #CreditSpreads #RecessionWarning #BondMarket #HighYield #InvestmentGrade #S&P500 #SmallCaps #FedPolicy #IranWar #EnergyPrices #LiquidityRisk #EconomicIndicators #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RecessionWatch #MarketSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo