Why Gasoline Is Falling Faster Than Oil This Time

Episode 52 of Energy Economics with Fexingo. Oil prices have dropped sharply in early June 2026—WTI crude fell from $95 to near $84 in just a week, and Brent is below $88. But unlike past episodes where gasoline lagged oil declines, regular gas at the pump has dropped from $4.30 to $4.15 over the same period. Lucas and Luna examine why this time is different: refining margins are collapsing as new capacity comes online, and the Iran deal uncertainty is compressing risk premiums. They walk through the data—gasoline crack spreads down 30 percent, the XLE energy sector falling 3 percent—and debate whether this faster pass-through is a one-off or a structural shift. Touching on the broader economic picture, they note core CPI still rising and a 10-year breakeven inflation rate stuck at 2.31 percent. A concrete, numbers-driven conversation about pump economics, refinery margins, and what falling gasoline means for the Fed's next move. #GasolinePrices #OilPrices #RefiningMargins #CrackSpread #WTI #Brent #CPI #Inflation #IranDeal #EnergyStocks #XLE #PumpEconomics #PassThrough #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #EnergyEconomics #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo