Why Government Budget Forecasts Are Always Wrong

Episode 25 of Government Spending with Fexingo digs into the persistent failure of government budget forecasts. Lucas and Luna examine why official projections miss the mark by trillions, using the U.S. Congressional Budget Office's 2026 budget outlook as a case study. They explore three structural biases: optimistic economic growth assumptions, unrealistic inflation projections, and the political pressure to understate deficits. The hosts discuss how the CBO's ten-year forecast from January 2025 underestimated interest costs by over $300 billion due to higher-than-expected Treasury yields. They also touch on why state-level forecasts tend to be more accurate than federal ones, and what listeners should watch for in future budget releases. No fluff, just the mechanics of why you can't trust the numbers you see in budget headlines. #GovernmentBudget #BudgetForecasts #CBO #FiscalPolicy #DeficitProjections #EconomicForecasting #PublicFinance #USBudget #TreasuryYields #InflationForecast #GDPGrowth #BudgetBias #StateBudgets #Economics #GovernmentSpending #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo