"Why I think strong general AI is coming soon" by Porby

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soonI think there is little time left before someone builds AGI (median ~2030). Once upon a time, I didn't think this.This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and insights that collapsed my estimates.The core ideas are as follows:We've already captured way too much of intelligence with way too little effort.Everything points towards us capturing way more of intelligence with very little additional effort.Trying to create a self-consistent world