Why Lower House Prices Suit the Government Right Now

Send us Fan Mail👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvestThe CGT base resets on 30 June 2027. Once you understand what that single date does, a lot of what is happening in the market right now starts to make more sense.Here is the mechanism. Gains made up to 30 June 2027 keep the existing 50% CGT discount. Gains made after that date fall under indexation instead, which in most cases is the less favourable of the 2. So the higher your valuation sits on that date, the more of your gain is protected by the old rules. Every investor wants that number high. The people counting the tax revenue have the opposite incentive.In this episode Curtis and I work through 3 things: what the CGT reset actually does to your tax bill, what happened to the first home buyers who were pushed into the market on a 5% deposit in 2025, and why SMSF lending on residential property was removed at the same time large industry funds are being encouraged into build to rent. We are both ex-Treasury, so we usually explain policy rather than question the motive behind it. This one is different.📍 How the 30 June 2027 CGT reset works, and why your valuation on that date matters more than your sale price📍 A worked example where the same $200,000 gain roughly doubles the amount added to your tax bill📍 Why a 2025 buyer on a 5% deposit in Sydney or Melbourne can be in negative equity within 6 months📍 What negative equity actually means day to day: no refinance, no easy sale, effectively a mortgage prisoner📍 Why fast-growth, buy-and-flip strategies are hit hardest by the new rules📍 The SMSF residential lending ban, and the build to rent question it raises📍 What we think changes in the next 12 months, and how to position for it rather than react to itIf you want the macro explained without the hype, subscribe.#AustralianProperty #CapitalGainsTax #FirstHomeBuyer #SMSF #PropertyInvestingChapters0:00 The claim: the government has an incentive to want prices lower2:32 The 3 changes we unpack4:04 Why the attack on aspiration gets to us5:39 First home buyers and the 5% deposit scheme9:23 Negative equity within 6 months10:21 Running the numbers on a $1m Sydney purchase14:02 The CGT reset on 30 June 2027 explained15:14 Why a lower valuation on that date means more tax18:57 Worked example: $800k to $1m, and double the tax bill22:20 Who gets hit hardest by the new rules25:36 SMSF lending ban and build to rent27:55 Follow the money: where the questions get uncomfortable30:43 What this means for the next 12 months33:19 Closing thoughts and where to get helpThis video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au