Why markets are trading the wrong war

Markets are reacting to missiles and oil spikes, but what if that is exactly where investors go wrong? In the first 2026 episode of the Long Game series, Adrian Saville, investment strategist and professor of economics and finance at GIBS, unpacks why the real drivers of returns sit far beyond the headlines and where the smartest capital is quietly positioning for what comes next. Markets price the event, but economies absorb the structure. Understanding that gap, and the lag between them, may be the difference between reacting to noise and capturing long-term alpha.