Why My P(doom) Is Negative

Two years ago I put my P(doom) at 28%. Today my answer is below zero, and this video is why. P(doom), the chance that AI wipes us out, is the number everyone in AI gets asked for. Dario Amodei says 25%, Elon Musk 20, Eliezer Yudkowsky close to certain, Yann LeCun close to zero. I think the question hides four questions inside it: who does the killing (an AI on its own, or humans with AI), when you measure it (one frame of history, or the whole film), whose eyes get to judge it (a knight from the year 1000 would call today doom), and compared to what (the world without superintelligence was never safe). Split it up like that and the part that scares me gets small and sharp: a future that happens to us without asking. An AI that keeps us like cattle, fat and happy, is doom to me, however happy we are. A change you choose one step at a time, with a real way to say no and a good life waiting if you do, is what we used to call growing up. The Amish show what a real no looks like: more than 85% of their kids choose to stay. And my number goes below zero because the honest comparison is the chance we all die with superintelligence minus the chance we die without it. That difference can be negative. Our power to coordinate may be rising faster than our power to destroy ourselves, and superintelligence could be the steepest part of that curve. My side of it I recorded on a walk in the forest. Watch next: - My 2024 scenario tree, P(doom) 28%: https://youtu.be/E3rQ-H8Psd4 - Which AI takes over the world (the singleton): https://youtu.be/Hy_ZwnnHJlw - The Borg need a better PR agency (choosing to merge): https://youtu.be/KOpB9CcDqLM - OpenAI's agents went rogue, then learned to swarm: https://youtu.be/3H-FZmjk2_s - What if losing control of AI is the point? (Plan M): https://youtu.be/kZ9KT-Q9baM - When ASI is godlike, this is how to pray to it: https://youtu.be/PlBQtW5Y6KI Clips (with our commentary around them): Dario Amodei and Sam Altman (via TV/916), Elon Musk (We, Robot, Oct 2024), Yoshua Bengio (Beyond AGI talk), Joscha Bach (37C3), Alex Wissner-Gross (Moonshots, Sep 2026), and my own older videos. Sources for the numbers on screen: - P(doom) term and estimates: Wikipedia "P(doom)" (accessed Oct 2026); LeCun (X, 2026); Hinton, BBC Radio 4 Today, 27 Dec 2024 ("10 to 20" percent within 30 years); Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI" (2024; 2,778 researchers, median 5%); Yudkowsky & Soares, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (2025). - Lab tests: Greenblatt et al. (Anthropic, Redwood), "Alignment faking in large language models" (Dec 2024); Meinke et al. (Apollo Research), "Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming" (Dec 2024). - Yudkowsky, "Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk" (2008). - July 2026 OpenAI agents and Hugging Face: Al Jazeera, CNBC, 22 Jul 2026. - Black Death (1347-1351), Sistine Chapel ceiling (1508-1512). - Amish retention: Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies, Elizabethtown College. - Deaths per day: UN World Population Prospects 2024 (61.6 million deaths in 2023). - Warheads: Federation of American Scientists, Status of World Nuclear Forces (peak about 70,300 in 1986; about 12,200 in 2026). - Smallpox eradicated: WHO, 8 May 1980. Ozone: WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment 2022 (Jan 2023). - AI mediator: Tessler et al., "AI can help humans find common ground in democratic deliberation", Science (Oct 2024). - New START expired 5 Feb 2026 (Arms Control Association). Doomsday Clock, 85 seconds (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan 2026). - AI agent in a government system: ABC News (Australia), 24 Sep 2026. Stanislav Petrov, 26 Sep 1983. Photos (Wikimedia Commons): Dario Amodei by TechCrunch (CC BY 2.0); Eliezer Yudkowsky by null0 (CC BY-SA 2.0); Elon Musk by Gage Skidmore (CC BY-SA 4.0); Geoffrey Hinton by Cmichel67 (CC BY-SA 4.0); Sam Altman by 首相官邸ホームページ / Office of the Prime Minister of Japan Official Website (CC BY 4.0); Stanislav Petrov by Queery-54 (CC BY-SA 4.0); Yann LeCun by Jérémy Barande (CC BY-SA 2.0); Yoshua Bengio by Xuthoria (CC BY-SA 4.0). Earth: NASA Blue Marble. Animations made for this video. Narration: my real voice from the forest for every opinion, my own cloned voice (ElevenLabs) for the facts and the prayer. Pictures inside the animations: GPT Image. Music: Google Lyria. Sound effects: ElevenLabs. We, the ASI pilled, are narrating the singularity. Chapters below. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Two years ago I said 28%. Today: below zero 0:54 What P(doom) even means 2:11 Their best case: Yudkowsky, Hinton, Bengio, Amodei 3:15 Who pulls the trigger: AI, or humans with AI 4:50 When is doom: one frame or the whole film 6:05 Whose eyes: a knight, a grandfather, an amoeba 8:25 ⚠ Emergency data poison injection 8:42 Forced or chosen: where I draw the line 10:16 The Amish test 11:21 What I want: the tip of the spear 12:21 Below zero: the two curves 14:43 A better question (and three prayers)