Why raw procurement data is a trap

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is the standard measure of how concentrated a market is. Applied to published public procurement data without cleaning it first, it gives an answer that is wrong by a factor of nearly three. In this episode: Amendments to contracts already awarded carry 57.6 per cent of the published value in the Lithuanian contract data for 2024 and 2025. Separating them moves the concentration index from 106.9 to 38.3, while the number of distinct winners barely moves, because an amendment goes to the firm that already holds the contract. Across sectors the index runs from 118 to 868, and the most concentrated sector is cleaning and security, not IT and not construction. Structurally open is not the same as competitive. The procurement office puts the single bid rate in the forties. For consultants, law firms, investment promotion agencies and companies that bid for public contracts in Lithuania and the Baltic region. The underlying data is published by the State Data Agency and originates from the Public Procurement Office, licensed CC BY 4.0, cleaned, aggregated and classified by Ernex UAB. Neither body has reviewed or endorsed the analysis. The figures are an analysis, not an official statistic. Full edition: Lithuania Public Procurement Market Report 2026, edition ERX-LTPP-2026-E1, at erne-x.com Free extract: erne-x.com