Why Roman Interest Rates Collapsed After Augustus Won | Fertility Economics Questions Answered | Friedman & Reagan on the Gold Standard – ep 304

Gene responds to thoughtful listener feedback on record-low fertility rates and explores why childcare, IVF, and returning to work for fortysomething mothers can be so economically challenging. He then travels back to ancient Rome to unpack a curious moment after Augustus’s victory over Antony and Cleopatra, when treasure flooded into Rome, interest rates plummeted, and land values soared—and explains how this fits neatly into modern monetary economics. Finally, Gene revisits remarkable exchanges between Milton Friedman, Alan Greenspan, and Ronald Reagan that shed fresh light on the perennial debate over the gold standard.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. TimestampsIntroduction (0:00)Childcare Costs and Staffing Ratios (5:15)IVF Costs and Penalties for Women Returning to Work (9:52)Rise of Singleton Households and Economics of Smaller Populations (17:32)Economic Impact of Ancient Rome’s Influx of Gold and Treasure (22:56)Milton Friedman and the Gold Standard (42:01)TakeawaysChildcare costs are structurally high due to labour intensity, mandated staff–child ratios, and qualification requirements.The “motherhood penalty” is real and appears driven partly by human capital loss during career breaks and partly by occupational choices for flexibility.Augustus’s influx of treasure into Rome increased real money balances, pushing interest rates from ~12% to ~4% and boosting land prices—an excellent real-world example of short-run monetary non-neutrality.Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan both advised Ronald Reagan NOT to pursue a gold standard, arguing fiscal discipline and controlled monetary growth matter more than metal backing.Links relevant to the conversationReferenced Previous EpisodesIs Gold Flashing a Warning Sign? https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/is-gold-flashing-a-warning-sign-ep303The Great Baby Busthttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-great-baby-bust-why-it-happened-and-what-it-means-for-us-ep300The Gender Pay Debate: Understanding the Factors Behind the Gap w/ Dr Leonora Risse - EP230https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-gender-pay-debate-understanding-the-factors-behind-the-gap-w-dr-leonora-risse-ep230The Gender Pay Gap w/ Dr Leonora Rissehttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-gender-pay-gap-with-dr-leonora-risseChina’s falling population & global population update - EP174https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/chinas-falling-population-global-population-update-ep174U.S. Census data on rising singleton householdshttps://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-quarter-all-households-have-one-person.html  “The Motherhood Wage Penalty: A Meta-Analysis” – Social Science Research paperhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X20300144Florida childcare staffing ratioshttps://www.elcslc.org/parents/vpk-locator/licensing-files-what-to-look-for/state-of-florida-mandated-adult-to-child-ratios/Australian childcare qualification requirementshttps://earlychildhood.qld.gov.au/careers/qualifications-and-pathways/approved-qualificationsBooks MentionedTom Holland’s translation of Suetonius – Lives of the Caesarshttps://www.amazon.com.au/Lives-Caesars-Suetonius/dp/0241186897Sebastian Mallaby – The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspanhttps://www.amazon.com.au/Man-Who-Knew-Times-Greenspan/dp/0143111094Mark Blaug – Economic Theory in Retrospecthttps://www.amazon.com.au/Economic-Theory-Retrospect-Universiteit-Amsterdam/dp/0521577012Cassius Dio – Roman Historyhttps://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/e/roman/texts/cassius_dio/51*.htmlLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED