EPISODE · Jun 28, 2026 · 10 MIN
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Falling Despite Sticky Inflation
from The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy · host Fexingo
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply over the past week, even as core inflation remains stubbornly above 3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: bond markets are pricing in a growth scare, not an inflation victory. They examine the recent 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.20 percent, the yield curve inversion deepening, and what the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year yields signals about recession risk. The hosts also discuss how the Fed's next move might be shaped by falling long-term rates rather than rising inflation. A data-driven look at what the bond market is telling us about the economy that equity markets haven't priced in yet. #TreasuryYield #BondMarket #YieldCurve #Inflation #FederalReserve #RecessionRisk #BreakevenRate #CoreInflation #EconomicGrowth #GrowthScare #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #Podcast #MarketData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
What this episode covers
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply over the past week, even as core inflation remains stubbornly above 3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: bond markets are pricing in a growth scare, not an inflation victory. They examine the recent 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.20 percent, the yield curve inversion deepening, and what the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year yields signals about recession risk. The hosts also discuss how the Fed's next move might be shaped by falling long-term rates rather than rising inflation. A data-driven look at what the bond market is telling us about the economy that equity markets haven't priced in yet. #TreasuryYield #BondMarket #YieldCurve #Inflation #FederalReserve #RecessionRisk #BreakevenRate #CoreInflation #EconomicGrowth #GrowthScare #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #Podcast #MarketData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Falling Despite Sticky Inflation
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