Why the 10-Year Yield Is Falling Despite Sticky Core PCE

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been bugging bond traders all week: the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.45 percent even as the core PCE price index came in at 3.3 percent annualized — exactly the kind of sticky inflation that should push yields higher. They look at the data: job openings falling to 6.9 million, initial jobless claims creeping up to 215,000, and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.65 percent. Lucas argues the bond market is pricing in a growth scare, not an inflation panic, and that the real story is the labor market softening beneath the surface. Luna pushes back, asking whether the market is getting ahead of itself. They also discuss what this means for the equity rally, with the S&P 500 at 7,580 and the Nasdaq up 2.3 percent in five days. Along the way, they mention how listener support keeps the show ad-free at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. #TreasuryYield #BondMarket #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #JoblessClaims #GrowthScare #S&P500 #Nasdaq #StockMarket #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo