Why the 2-Year Yield Is Sticky Near 4.17 Percent

Lucas and Luna dig into the 2-year Treasury yield, which is hovering near 4.17% as of June 5, 2026, defying expectations of a sharper drop. They explain why the 2-year is the market's best gauge of rate-cut timing, how it differs from the Fed funds rate at 3.62%, and what the 41-basis-point gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields signals about the economy. Using recent data on SOFR and the 5-year yield at 4.26%, they walk through what bond traders are pricing in for the next Fed meeting. Plus: a look at why short-duration ETFs like SHY are trading near par, while longer-duration funds like TLT are down. No fluff, just the mechanics behind the yield curve's most telling maturity. #TwoYearYield #TreasuryNotes #FedRateCuts #YieldCurve #BondMarket #InterestRates #FixedIncome #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #SOFR #SHY #TLT #DurationRisk #RecessionSignal #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo