Why the Bond Market Expects Lower Inflation Despite Tariff Risks

On Episode 136 of Inflation Explained, Lucas and Luna dig into a fascinating disconnect: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.26%, the lowest in months, signaling that bond traders expect inflation to keep cooling. But at the same time, import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, and a new global tariff is raising costs for businesses. So who's right — the market or the policy? We unpack what breakeven rates actually measure, why the bond market is betting on disinflation, and whether tariffs could upend that outlook. A concrete look at how inflation expectations are set and why they matter for your wallet. #Inflation #CPI #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #10YearTreasury #Tariffs #ImportPrices #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Disinflation #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #MarketExpectations #ChinaTrade #TradePolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo