Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring CPI at 4.2 Percent

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down a strange disconnect in financial markets: consumer prices just hit 4.2 percent annual inflation — the highest in three years — yet the ten-year Treasury yield has actually fallen over the past week. They explore the gap between the CPI headline and what bond traders are really pricing in, from the Fed's effective rate at 3.63 percent to the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.31 percent. Lucas explains why the bond market's message might be more forward-looking than the panic in consumer confidence surveys, and whether this divergence is a buy signal or a warning. The episode ties it back to what it means for portfolios in mid-2026, especially with the Nasdaq up nearly 4 percent in five days even as inflation fears dominate headlines. #CPI #Inflation #BondMarket #TreasuryYield #FederalReserve #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FinancialMarkets #YieldCurve #BreakevenInflation #Nasdaq #RealRates #LucasAndLuna #WeeklyEconomics #PodcastEpisode #MarketDisconnect Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo